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The Pittsburgh Steelers look to bounce back from a two game losing skid against the snake bit St. Louis Rams. The Steelers will take an extra sense of urgency in this game, as not only have they dropped two in a row, they find their season long grip atop the AFC North in jeopardy as Cleveland has caught them and is now tied atop the division. At this point even the playoffs aren't a certainty if they don't find some way to win. The Rams were totally outclassed last week by Green Bay and should have much of the same fortune against Pittsburgh who will be playing with far more urgency in what is now a must win game for them as well.
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PIT 33 - STL 20
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PIT 41 - STL 24 WINNER
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More Prime time action on the NFL Network, which will no doubt make Jerry Jones a very happy man. That was sarcasm, what will really make Jones a happy man is getting a road trip up to woeful Carolina where opponents have feasted this year, and Dallas has won 6 of the last 7 games against Carolina. Although I should qualify that after losing like 7 straight at home Carolina has put a couple of home wins on the board in the last few weeks. Dallas looked awful lethargic in it's last home game, which they did lose. Then there is the old Tony Romo thumb injury as well. It might be one of those games where the Cowboys might pull in the ponies early and throw some back-ups out there to the Panthers. So that is always a scary thought for us gamers. Last week you had a bunch of the home dogs coiming up big as well, so that is another factor to figure. I will still be playing this one as if all things were equal, meaning Dallas should run away with it, but being that this time of year is the season for giving, the 'Boys just may be feeling a little generous to the good folks in Carolina.
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DAL 38 - CAR 16
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DAL 20 - CAR 13 WINNER/No Cover
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Jacksonville posted an impressive road win last week which has pretty much has vaulted them into the pole position for the postseason. They get a visit this week from an Oakland team whose record may not reflect it but have been much better than the Raiders of the recent past. Counting last week Oakland has now won or covered in 3 of the last 4 games, and are getting a nice fat two TD spot on the road this week. Jacksonville despite the reputation has been able to post solid victories at home, having covered the last 3 straight home games, beating San Diego by seven, Buffalo by 21 and Carolina by 31. Spot the trend there. While I have been duped by the similar Oakland trends this season, and lastly only a couple weeks ago (that 4th game of the whole 3 of the last 4 trend), but the roughhousing Raiders look ripe for the road cover especially against a Jags team which might be easing up a bit with things looking rather wrapped up.
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JAC 14 – OAK 9
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JAC 49 - OAK 11 WINNER/No Cover
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San Fran ended a losing skid at the expense of Cincy at home on national television last Saturday night. Then Tampa wrapped up the NFC South on Sunday with a blowout of Atlanta. Both of those facts helped factor a somewhat surprising line in this game, I honestly expected to see San Fran getting more like 7.5-10 points in this one, seeing how the line opened at 6.5 and everyone is thinking just like me with the early action all going on Tampa. Like I said the Bucs have everything all wrapped up as far as the division goes, and won’t be getting a bye, so really don’t have very much to play for. The Niners don’t either but it’s that time of year when guys are playing for jobs, and teams playing for pride want to have big days in front of the home front. So that all leads right into the hands of what they want us not think which is that Tampa will roll all over San Fran. Wish I could have made that pick last Saturday night, however I think the Niners will be playing to build for next year, like they did last year, and last week. While a cruising Buc team who has it all locked up will be more than happy to escape San Fran with injury free, weather or not they win the game, which they will manage to do by the way.
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TAM 19 - SF 16
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SF 21 - TAM 19 COVER
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This game sets up with some very comical story lines, at least as far as the NFL edge is concerned. The undefeated Pats try to defend their perfect record against the suddenly surging Miami Dolphins. Well not that one win is surging, but Miami had covered in four straight until I foolishly picked them AS A FAVORITE(!!?!!) to beat the Jets. The Jets ran all over them, and so disgruntled was I swore to pick against Miami the rest of the season. It worked like a champ as I made a bundle on the Bills the following week, and it blinded me to the pick that was so painfully obvious last week, that I was telling everyone Miami was going to break on through with a win last week, I even went ahead and bet the NO on the Miami 0-16 prop! Likewise I was all over the site Tuesday propping up the ATM machine Pats, that when that winter storm rolled in the Jets and 23 points were such a gift it felt like stealing. New England steam rolled Miami at home back in October right before Miami’s run of covering 5 of the last 7 games. Not that Miami can do it again but really 23.5 points for ANY pro team is ridiculous. The Jets proved it last week. The Dolphins also reminded us last week, what I had been saying for about 6 weeks now, EVERY NFL Team can win a game on ANY GIVEN SUNDAY and especially a cold blustery Sunday against a team that has already run away with it.
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NE 34 – MIA 14
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NE 28 - MIA 7 WINNER
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This game shapes up to be a very interesting one. The Eagles fresh off a big upset of the Cowboys, stay on the road this week in the big easy. New Orleans has managed to stay in the playoff hunt, and must win here to keep their hopes alive. The Eagles despite their record have been battling all year and are when they are healthy as they are now, relatively speaking, are a handful for anyone. The Saints are playing for their lives now, and including last weeks thumping of Arizona have won three of the last four games. Coach Sean Payton knows all about Jim Johnson and the Philly defense from his days in the NFC East. So I expect him to have his bag of tricks wide open in this one, remember the season is on the line for the Saints. Philly despite winning the game, made quite a few bad moves in the Dallas game, and as some people in Philly are aware of the team has often made questionable decisions at questionable times that wind up breaking their hearts. Coaching will play the difference in who will be in the best position to win this one, and therefore there is only one way to play this one.
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NO 27 – PHI 17
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PHI 38 - NO 23 LOSER
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Now here is a match up that has no real value except for draft position. Now that Detroit has played their way out of postseason consideration and is no threat to go to the playoffs, they can settle back down and play their game. Detroit is a respectable 5-2 ATS at home this year despite losing like the last 3 straight games there. K.C. is also interestingly 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Getting 4.5 points make this noteworthy, as Detroit has not been favored by more than 3 points in any game this season. They have actually covered all three times they were favored this year, but that extra point they have to cover this week just might get a little bit hairy.
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DET 26 – KC 19
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DET 25 - KC 20 WINNER
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Watch out for this game. I know Cleveland has themselves in position to win the AFC North with some wins and some luck. The Browns, can still clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, and not even some of the most ardent Browns fans expected that of this team this year. Cincy on the other hand is out of it, they are basically playing for pride, what little is left after getting spanked in San Francisco last week. With nothing else to play for Cincy would just love to play spoiler against their rival at home. That could make this their superbowl of sorts and this time of year the motivation for teams with nothing to play for is games just like this one. Cincy still has guys like Ocho Cinco and he might still have one big home show left in him. These two had a shootout in Cleveland earlier this year which Cleveland won by a score of 51-45. That 45 might be very telling as Cincy did sweep them last year by a combined score of 64-17. This still healthy Cincy offense can obviously put up the numbers against this Cleveland defense, so that is something I would watch for if having to lay points. In fact were that line to go up or if I were to tease this game, I might like Cincy with a FG or more. Still the chance for Cleveland to wrap up a playoff spot is too good to pass up, and this exciting young team will punch their ticket to the postseason right in their rivals backyard.
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CLE 36 – CIN 33
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CIN 19 - CLE 14 LOSER
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Green Bay is back to it’s impressive winning ways rolling along this week and looks to avenge one of their two losses on the season this week when they visit Chicgao. The Bears bested the Packers up in Green Bay back in early October, but things have been on and off for them since then. More recently Chicago has lost the last two in a row. However the term rivals aptly applies to these two teams as they have split the last 10 meetings, each team winning 5. Chicago hasn’t had much going their way this year though and less so it seems as of late. A 1-4 record against the spread in the last 5 at home help to make that point. Green Bay still has a shot to clinch home field advantage if they keep winning, and beating rival Chicago is usually fuel enough for a game effort from the old gunslinger.
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GB 27 – CHI 10
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CHI 35 - GB 7 LOSER
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The Bills were bounced in a blizzard last week to Cleveland and that practically eliminated Buffalo from the postseason. The Giants however are still in the drivers seat for a playoff spot in the NFC, and can still clinch an invitation to the big dance with a win. That still didn't stop them from looking more like a team that has packed it in and is going home for the holidays instead of one heading to the postseason. The New York media can chide and ride Eli Manning all day and on the talk shows, and that is probably one reason the Giants have struggled at home this year. It wasn’t Manning though who dropped 10 passes in the blustery wind last week. Nor Manning who let the Skins rip off torrential chunks of yardage and just walk into the endzone last week either. As bad as they have been at home, The Giants have won 6 of the last 7 road games though, and generally play much better on the road. Buffalo did’t fare very well in the lousy weather in Cleveland last week, but will be back in the confines of Western New York, where they always take it up a notch. Dick Jaroun has gotten Buffalo to bounce back every time off big disappointments, and I’m convinced that not making the Playoffs will not bring out the quit in this team. The Giants start to feel the effects of the weight of another late season disappointment, and without leader Jeremy Shockey out there to swell the tide they get stampeded by an angry herd of Buffalo.
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BUF 23 – NYG 9
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NYG 38 - BUF 21 LOSER
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Wow who went to sleep on Houston last week. Guilty. The Texans sure had me fooled, but then again I didn’t really much buy into thinking that the team had any hope left, turns out they were mathematically alive, and that little glimmer of hope inspired them to a great effort. Instead they enter this contest with that last glimmer of hope erased, as Cleveland winning officially eliminated them from any postseason hopes. The Colts are at home here, and they are still just putting up the W's. There may not be much for Indy to play for in this game, they are heading to postseason and would be locked in as the No. 2 seed almost regardless, and Tony Dungy might be looking to protect his players if this one starts to get away, either way. The Colts struggled a bit in Oakland last week, and though they came out a winner, didn't cover the 8.5 points. I like Indy to jump out big early in this one, but with the way Houston played last week, I take a little pause before getting real big on this one.
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IND 28 - HOU 20
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IND 38 - HOU 15 WINNER
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A game between a couple of teams that looks like it's one for the birds. The Faclons really didn't play much better this week even after they were liberated from the confines of Bobby Petrino. The Cards played gamely in New Orleans, but as is often the result in the end was another Arizona loss. This week they have a bird of a similar feather to flock with, and get the broken down birds in their own cage. Out in the desert Arizona has triumphed in 4 of the last 6 contests, however Arizona has failed to cover once this year as a favorite, and has been horrible as a big favorite, most recently getting crushed by San Fran as a similar 11.5 point favorite. Just keep that in mind as you peruse through all these big spreads this week, especially if you are just looking for just one good solid fave to pick, the Cards might not be the best choice, even if they are hosting the regressing falcons, who seem to swoop lower and lower altitudes every week. No that is too sad to even take a shot on as big dog against the Cardnals.
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AZ 24 - ATL 10
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AZ 30 - ATL 27 WINNER/No Cover
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The Seahawks did not look very impressive in getting corralled in Carolina, where the Cats previously had only had one victory. However that ignominy was topped by Baltimore who went into Miami and lost to the previously winless Dolphins. The Ravens now replace the Dolphins atop the list of the teams with the longest current losing streak which has now reached 8 games. That should be inspiration enough for the Ravens to warrant a better effort this week. Yet there are reasons teams lose, 6,7 or 8 straight games. Fundamental reasons, like having quit on the year… However even were that not the case, and their best effort probably wouldn't be good enough to pull it out in Seattle, where the Seahawks have won 7 of the last 8 games up there, and overall 5 of their last 6 games. Unless of course if Seattle has decided to pack it in for the rest for the regular season.
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SEA 27 – BAL 13
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SEA 27 - BAL 6 WINNER
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I hate to admit this, but when I saw that blizzard move in this weekend, the Jesters with 23.5 points as the final line there inflated to, became quite irresistible. Of course the Jesters did drop another game, although heading into that game the Jets had won a couple of the previous few games, and with that 23.5 have now covered in like 4 of the last 6 games. They are getting big points again in this one, and are back to playing the more experienced Chad Penningtion who frankly gives them the best shot to score some points and manage to keep it close. That is unless he goes back to throwing a bunch of balls to that opportunistic Titan defense. Tennessee is back at home where the Titans are making a playoff push, and aside from beating a broken down Kansas City team the week before had dropped four of the previous 5 games. Just some stuff to think about as the regular season winds down. It’s safe to get back to the the old bread and butter and just take the team that's facing the Jets. Enjoy the loveable losers while we got ‘em, in a couple more weeks we wont have teams like the Jets to bank on anymore!
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TEN 24 - NYJ 10
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TEN 10 - NYJ 6 WINNER/No Cover
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The Prime time match up this week is a game that features to teams both making runs toward the postseason. Minnesota pulled one out Monday Night in a game they were probably outplayed in, and were lucky to be allowed to hang around. Yet the mark of a good team is one that can struggle and still find ways to win. That win keeps Minnesota in position to earn a playoff berth with a win here. Washington continued it's late season resurgence behind career backup Todd Collins, who stepped in at QB, and went into New York and Toppled the Giants which now gives them a very real shot of pushing past them into the playoff hunt. Thus setting the stage for this prime time game in Minnesota. Actually the fact that this game was moved to prime time could actually backfire on Washington, for instance if New York does win it’s 1 o’clock game, Washington could wind up eliminated from the playoff race, and then of course could wind up washed up and washed out of this one before they even kick it off. I don’t think it would matter though, the Vikes are rolling it up on people, and the Skins defense yielded like 130 yards to Brandon Jacobs last week on the ground even though they won the game. Imagine what Adrian Peterson behind that line will do to their run defense.
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MIN 37 – WAS 17
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WAS 32 – MIN 21 LOSER
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Not much to talk about in this one here, San Diego tries to charge into the postseason on a high note, while the Ponies don't really run as well away from the mile high. Denver has only won two on the road all year, and San Diego is 6-1 at home. As we saw this week the good teams power their way into the postseason, while the mediocre were left to wonder what went wrong, games like this one for Denver. Ho-Ho-Ho and Merry Christmas!
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S.D. 41 – DEN 23
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SD 23 – DEN 3 WINNER
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