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Lucky week # 13 kicks off with a gem. A potential NFC Championship preview? Well the winner of this one could be a big factor in where the Championship will be played. Will it be in Big D, or up in the frozen tundra. This is a great match up and one I honestly want no part of. I don't try to hide the fact that I have a huge leaning toward Dallas, I liked them all year, even when they hosted New England. Might that be a big hint for you all for later on should those two meet in January? Well they got to play this one first, and I have also been on to the Favre renaissance as well this year. I hate going against teams that have consistently won for me, especially two teams like these which are just playing so well. But there is no other game Thursday Night, and ole, T.O. is bound to put on a show.
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DAL 34 – GB 27
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DAL 37 - GB 27 WINNER
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What was that thud in Kansas City last week? No it wasn't the first game that they lost at home this year, the Chiefs actually have dropped four of the last 5 home games. No that thud was any hope for a postseason appearance this year, and potentially the back breaker for a team that was teetering on the verge. They lost Priest Holmes to retirement earlier in the week, were already without Larry Johnson at Running Back. Yeah they did get a nice game from Kolby Smith, but what with Herman Edwards choosing to go for the first down when a FG could have tied it. He has sure made his share of gaffs this year. The Chargers rebounded at home last week, and by virtue of beating down Baltimore wound up atop the AFC west for the first time this year. A road win here, though a long ways against the odds, as S.D. is a putrid one for it’s last seven on the road, but just this one, could go a long way to sealing the deal in the AFC west. The Chiefs could be even more deflated after that debacle last week, looks ripe to me for another big home let down.
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S.D. 24 – K.C. 14
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SD 24 - KC 10 WINNER
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It gets no easier as another big divisional battle in the AFC south looms on the docket. The Titans were waxed up in Cincinnati the week before but are heading back to Tennessee where Houston makes it's second straight road trip, hoping to be more successful than the last one, where they were clobbered in Cleveland by a 27-17 score. Going into that game Houston had a little momentum from getting a solid home win and getting some key players back and healthy. To be fair Cleveland is a pretty good team playing pretty good right now, and Houston has been typically weak on the road (1-4). Tennessee looks to have some huge holes in its secondary as they are without Michael Griffin and Chris Hope back there, and while Houston struggled against a similarly low rated Cleveland pass defense Matt Shaub could be able to exploit some of the back ups in the Tennessee secondary, Andre Johnson’s return had sparked Houston in the previous game, and if they can get back to that it could be another great match up. Somehow though I think Vince Young and the Titans will have answers for that and just like the last meeting in Houston, once again the Titans will topple the Texans.
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TEN 36 – HOU 31
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TEN 28 - HOU 20 WINNER
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Another week 13 treat as the heavyweights in the AFC south look to settle things on the field. We got a chance to check out the Jags in person last week, along with a few of my dollars… and they didn't disappoint. They sure are just a big physical football team, who always impress me when I get to see them up close, they have some monsters out there. They did keep the game close to the vest for three quarters or so allowing Buffalo to hang around, but as very good solid defensive football teams do, after they softened Buffalo up they were able to finish them off with a killer instinct. Once again tough to go against a team like that. Indianapolis is still the champs though and in their house where they are 5-1 this year, it will be loud and it will be tough on the Jags. Yet the Colts defense isn't quite the same since losing Dwight Freeny they have lost two of the last three previous to Thursday’s stuffed Turkey Atlanta, and couldn’t cover at home last time out against Kansas City. I know, those trends don’t have nothing to do with a big rival like Jacksonville coming in there. But the Jags covered against the Colts in 4 of the last 6 of that rivalry, and are just the physical kind of team that beats you up enough to keep it close enough where them 7.5 points are just too tempting.
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IND 23 – JAC 19
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IND 28 - JAC 25 WINNER
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Both these two teams had heartbreaking losses last week, losses which dampened any playoff hopes that these two had. So this will be a real big gut check to see who has it in them to strap it up and keep playing. Then (just as I was ready to post this you get the tragedy to Sean Taylor) so there goes the emotional trend, who knows how this team will respond. Buffalo has a decent gritty team and hasn't quit all year, the way they bounced back off heartbreak this year is commendable. Washington may be a bit banged up, but hung tough on the road last week, keeping Tampa down to only 19 points. They are still playing hard defensively and can still run the ball pretty well. Which is where Buffalo was really smarting without Marshawn Lynch. Then figure in the emotion factor over the whole Taylor tragedy, and they should just bury the Bills.
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WAS 24 – BUF 16
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BUF 17 - WAS 16 LOSER
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Stick a fork in Carolina after last week they are now done. They couldn't run the ball at all against a very soft New Orleans defense. In Carolina where oh by the way they are completely winless all year, and here I had to go and buck that trend last week, yeah that's exactly why I dig through all that data and come up with these stupid trends in the first place. So while there is something to that, all that very same trend data shown how San Fran was just as woeful last week, and all they did was go into Arizona as a double digit underdog and outright win a shootout 37-31. So now here comes San Fran with a head of steam and some confidence putting up 37 points in getting back into the win column last week, against a listless, Carolina team who couldn’t even muster a touchdown. Frank Gore was back and chugging last week, and that bodes well for San Fran who actually moved the ball behind Trent Dilfer at QB. Could it be these very same Forty Niners could be starting a new trend with their second straight road win.
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SF 20 – CAR 7
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CAR 31 - SF 14 LOSER
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Minnesota got a huge game from their defense last week, and by winning the game has a shot to get back into the wildcard mix with a win at home against Detroit. That shouldn’t be out of the question as Minnesota has won the last 5 times Detroit came in to pay them a visit. Detroit did get some payback when the vaulted past the Vikes 20-17 in Detroit back in September. The Vikes season didn’t start out so well, but have looked much better as of late. They do it by blowing open huge holes with that big offensive line of theirs and grinding out long drives, putting pressure on the other team into making mistakes. That has pretty much been the formula that can beat a very mistake prone Detroit offense with John Kitna at the helm. The Vikes could also be getting their main horse Adrian Peterson back in this game. The way that line has been opening holes for him this year, it's no wonder he leads the NFL in rushing. He could add big to that total this week, as Minnesota climbs back from the brink to catch Detroit and move past them this week into postseason relevance.
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MIN 26 – DET 20
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MIN 42 - DET 10 WINNER
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The Jovial Jesters are back and for a change will be seeing a team as inept as they are across from them. Miami has been as good as the Jets to bet against all year, well that is until a couple weeks ago. Since then the Dolphins may still be winless but counting Monday Nights game where Vegas was giving Miami a generous 17 point spot the Phins have now covered the last 4 straight, that is if you happen to be keeping track of that sort of thing. In fact the Phins were pretty darn close to getting their first W in that Pittsburgh quagmire last Monday Night, no team has gone completely winless since the expansion Bucs did in 1976. Eventually EVERYONE wins ONE game, even this hapless bunch, right? This one will be one game Miami is looking at thinking this is the week, where it comes together. The Jets had a little bit of confidence back in their game after a win against Pittburgh a couple weeks back, but followed that up with an embarrassment of a game in Dallas. They Boys can do that to people, gosh I hate to take a team that couldn’t muster ANY points the week before, but I mean EVERYONE wins SOMETIME in the NFL don’t they? If it ain’t this week for Miami – the 76 Bucs might finally have something to celebrate.
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MIA 10 – NYJ 6
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NYJ 40 - MIA 13 LOSER
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As we approach the stretch run here in the 2007 season this game features two teams who are already looking toward 2008. Atlanta as has been the case most of this year, played a good HALF of football last Thursday night and has had an extra couple days to reflect upon yet another second half collapse this year. Not to be outdone St. Louis had an impressive collapse of their own last week. In fact it was so impressive that the books don’t even want any part of this game, it has the makings of being so bad that it could LOOK like the fix was in, even if it ain’t. In fact they don’t want any piece of this, which is exactly why I would be all over this one. In their defense St. Louis did wind up losing starting QB Marc Bulger again last week, which no doubt was instrumental in their ultimate collapse. So this game could feature Gus Ferrotte against Joey Harrington, need we say anymore. Ferrotte did get some points on the board and was only a late blunder away from coming away victorious, and you wonder why the books want nothing to do with this one. Victorious is hardly a term I would typically use around either of these two teams, but have to figure that some of that momentum behind St. Louis recent run is enough to carry them past a floundering Falcon team in this one.
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STL 26 – ATL 16
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STL 28 - ATL 16 WINNER
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The Seahawks got the job done last week on the road in St. Louis, and are looking to keep the momentum building up this week. It gets tougher this week as Philly shown last Sunday night that they are still in there battling, even with A.J. Feely filling in at QB. The Eagles gave unbeaten New England all they could handle up in New England Sunday night, although they still came up short. To their credit the hard fighting Eagles are also still alive in the NFC Playoff picture and with a home win here can get right back into the middle of the muddled NFC. Seattle though they pulled it out last week, has not been known for the road prowess and heading into a late November game at the Linc against an angry Eagles team might prove to be a little too high to fly.
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PHI 31 - SEA 24
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SEA 28 - PHI 24 LOSER
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The Saints are still alive in the NFC and with a win here at home against a division rival could get themselves back to even and with all the strife back only a game back of division leader Tampa. Tampa has some separation in the NFC South and with a solid home win last week against Washington can go a long way to punching their ticket here with a big road win over their division rival. However a loss in New Orleans would mean only a game would separate Tampa and New Orleans making for a scintillating final quarter to the 2007 NFL season in the NFC South. Tampa has had the better of it against New Orleans covering in 5 of 6 trips to the big easy, and here are getting an extra FG as well. Hard to gather what to expect with New Orleans this year, they can look so bad at times, and yet show flashes of the team that was in the conference championship game last year, like they did last week when the buried me along with my dumb Carolina pick.
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N.O. 20 – TAM 17
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TAM 27 - N.O. 23 COVER
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Last week was a very revealing week for both of these two teams. Cleveland revealed why they were such a hot team and emerged from that game as legit contenders. Arizona once again revealed their true colors and emerged as a legit pretender, losing at home as a huge double digit favorite. Double digit favored Arizona… yeah what on Earth was I thinking! I obviously ignored the trends that showed the Cards as a woeful big favorites. No way the books will be making that kind of mistake this week. Yet they are instilling Arizona as the favorite once again. Cleveland has just been the hot team since Derek Anderson took over at QB, and on the road this year going 4-1 ATS but hey man this is Arizona... a ten point favorite, favored again, come on.
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CLE 34 – AZ 30
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AZ 27 - CLE 21 LOSER
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Wow was that the Raiders going to war last week and pulling it out in Kansas City? Rather was that some poor coaching that allowed the Raiders to escape. Nevertheless ending a 13 game divisional losing streak, and now get this the Raiders are trying to put together a winning streak. As laughable as that sounds, the Broncos could be ripe for the picking imploding and losing a two TD lead in the 4th quarter last week only to fall flat on their faces in Chicago. Denver find themselves not only out of first place now, but with a losing record and on the outside looking in most of the playoff scenarios. Oakland would love nothing more than to ensure the Broncos join them in playing out the string. Oakland really has struggled against Denver, losing like 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two. That was before Justin Fargas though, I told you he brought a little spark to Oakland, a little spark, a little discord by the Broncos, and you have the makings of another one of the shocking upsets.
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OAK 22 – DEN 20
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OAK 34 - DEN 20 WINNER
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Watching both of these two teams play last week, I can't wait for this game. Chicago got a huge kick start of momentum coming back last week, beating the Broncos. The Giants had a major meltdown with Eli throwing 4 Interceptions, and after winning six straight New York has now lost two of it's last three. A position New York has been in before, and as they have done for the past couple of years they meet Chicago in a pivotal game. Last year it was just about a similar set of circumstances and the Bears who summoned in yet another late season collapse as New York was dismantled. Chicago used that game to propel their way into the NFC Championship. Last week kept Chicago’s post season aspirations still on the map, this week they get a chance to even up their record, and play their way into position to make another run at the postseason.
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CHI 27 - NY 16
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NYG 21 - CHI 16 LOSER
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This game suddenly takes on more interest as Cincinnati looks to have that offense clicking once again. It has been Pittsburgh that have dashed the Bengals playoff hopes in recent years, so you know this Cincy team will be gunning for a little payback for their old pals. The Steelers may have avoided the embarrassment of being the first team to lose to the ’07 Dolphins, but something about this bunch is still not right. Only 3 points to the Phish, and what losing to the Jets the week before. No something ain’t right, the Steelers don’t seem right, losing to the Jets can do that to ya. They won’t take the Bengals lightly nor their defense. The Steelers get it going again this year, and send Cincy to the offseason a few weeks earlier this year.
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PIT 34 – CIN 21
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PIT 24 - CIN 10 WINNER
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Oh hey, sorry about the line on this game, that was a bit of a glitch as it defaulted to the typical home team is a -2.5 point favorite. Obviously that didn't apply to this game. The Ravens favored, yeah that would be a good one! In a week where every game on Sunday was like 5 points or less, we get this one for the finale where New England is practically a 3 TD favorite on the road. I had been having a pretty decent Sunday, and I know that I do tend to try and go against the c.w. on Monday's picks, as I watch where all the action is going all week. However this is one game I don't want to go against the crowd. Sure Baltimore has a chance to pull the upset, and there is also a chance Brian Billick will pick up the phone and give me a call to see if I want to play QB for the Ravens this week. Yeah that COULD happen, however if you want to go to Vegas and make a wager on either one, don't blame me if you go 0-2.
20 points is really too many points to spot an NFL team, but New England is not a typical NFL team, and Baltimore with that offense can barely be considered and NFL team. Yeah the Monday night home magic and all that stuff that you could talk yourself into nibbling at Baltimore, and maybe just maybe they could score in this game, once or twice, that would be more scores than they put up against much worse defenses... and wait is that my phone ringing... oh hey it's the Ravens, they want to know if I can get to Baltimore... Ok well it isn't but my bet is that is much more likely to actually happen than for the Ravens pull the upset.
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N.E. 37 - BAL 10
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NE 27 - BAL 24 WINNER/No Cover
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