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The Annual Turkey Day football feast is upon us and the main course gets served first this week. Detroit has had a history of being very tough at home on Thanksgiving day. This year there is even more at stake as Detroit is still relative in the NFC Playoff picture, and adding to the intrigue as they are only a few games back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Detroit surrendered their first home loss last week to the Giants. Green Bay on the other hand continues their renaissance and as projected right here at the NFL Edge continues to get stronger every time out. Green Bay has taken the last three meetings between these old rivals. Though I think Detroit will get up for this game, national TV and a chance to show the country that they are a legit playoff type team, and against a division rival and all. The Pack has it going right now, and that Defense will get to and harass John Kitna, and that will be the difference as they keep it close enough for Favre to pull out another Thanksgiving classic.
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GB 31 - DET 26
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GB 37 - DET 26 WINNER
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Now for the Thanksgiving Turkey, weather it's the Jesters from NY or the clown wearing # 81, there are turkeys a-plenty to give thanks for. The Jesters might be starting to get some things working with a cover the week before and an outright win last week against Pittsburgh. The Boys from Big D struggled at home with the rival Redskins and thanks to the touchdown clown managed to hold off the skins and hold onto first place in the East. Still they failed to cover an 11 point spread at home, which is always a sign of trouble. This week you have to lay even more, as the ‘Boys are giving a two TD spot. This week though the jovial Jestsers come in and despite the recent offensive renaissance probably won't even threaten to wake anyone up from their tryptophan naps.
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DAL 40 - NYJ 6
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DAL 34 - NYJ 3 WINNER
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...and now for the leftovers. What would Thanksgiving be without the big bird. The Falcons sure look like the Turkey this year. Sure just as the Falcons seemed to be building some continuity on offense with Joey Harrington as the QB and the stats bore that out with the Falcons having covered in 5 of the previous 6 games to last week. However keeping it close and having a chance to win just wasn't good enough down there. Then they yank Harrington and insert Byron Leftwich at QB and along with throwing off all the trends, he flat out stunk. Tampa harassed and destroyed Atlanta, scoring two defensive touchdowns, while Atlanta only managed to put one in the end zone themselves. No matter how you slice it that is just not a formula conducive to winning football games. Likewise Indianapolis also struggled at home against a team who inserted a 1st time starter at QB. Indy seems to be slumming a little now dropping the last two against the spread, but a trip to Atlanta with bumbling Byron Leftwich in charge and completely out of sync in that offense should do wonders for the Colts.
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IND 31 - ATL 10
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IND 31 - ATL 13 WINNER
How's that for the Thanksgiving Trifecta... dang near nailed EVERY FINAL SCORE To boot!! Nothing like a Perfect Parlay to go with that Pumpkin Pie... see ya back here on Sunday!
Get in to see the game
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Despite Seattle not really blowing people out of the water this year, they just keep getting the job done and still sail above the fray in the NFC west. This should be a tougher match up this week, as the Rams have gotten a bit of that swagger back since a couple of weeks back when they got some of their marquee guys back, and will look to post a better effort this time at home. Home dogs are always tricky especially when facing a weak road team like Seattle, who is like 4-12 in the last couple years on the road, and only one win in 5 tries this year. St. Louis may not have many stats to back that they are improved from earlier this year, when they were routed in Seattle by the tune of 33-6. In fact they may have dropped the last 5 contests with Seattle, but they have covered two of the last three meetings with Seattle, including last year when they were also a 3 point favorite and lost 30-28. That sounds about right once again, as Seattle will get the job done. Even if the trends say that this is a good spot to sniff the home dog.
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SEA 31 - STL 28
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SEA 24 - STL 19 WINNER/No Cover
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The Giants continue to struggle in the second half of the year, only managing one TD in their last effort, but managed several miscues, missed opportunities and turnovers. Although much the big guys credit they did hang in there and bring home the W. The Vikes have been hard pressed to find W's this year, even if they have outplayed their opposition in more games than they have won. Going outdoors into New York this time of year without their top playmaker Adrian Peterson does not bode well for the Vikes, who have only won once in 5 road trips this year. However in their favor is that they really don't throw the ball that much anyhow, and that offensive line should be able to blow big holes in the Giants run defense. If the Vikes can stay in this game, weather by their own defense, or Giant miscues, unlike the Lions last week they can pull it out in the fourth quarter. However if Minnesota’s suspect pass defense gets torched early on by Manning, Shockey Burress, and the rest of those guys, Giants jump out front early, the Vikings will be trying play catch up and instead play right into the big guys hands having to throw the ball around, which with Tavaris Jackson, I don't know that they can beat NY that way.
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NY 17 - MIN 16
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MIN 41 - NYG 17 COVER
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The Bills were absolutely dismantled Sunday night and it will be a real feat just to get them to be competitive in this game. The Jags just waxed potential power San Diego last week, and will be coming in with lots of confidence to go along with that bruising defense. No I don't expect Buffalo to muster much more offense this week in Jacksonville The Bills are barely managing to put up two TDs per game, and that’s to the likes of the Jets, Dolphins and Bengals. However Bills fans can take some solace in knowing that Jacksonville's offense is not nearly as proficient as the one they faced last week, and probably only capable of putting up half as many points as New England did. Unfortunately for Buffalo fans, that should still wind up getting the job done for Jacksonville.
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JAC 24 - BUF 9
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JAC 36 - BUF 14 WINNER
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Here we have a couple of has beens. Two teams that started the season with such promise, but are now mired in mediocrity. The loser of this game is probably on the way down from mediocre to bad. When we talk about bad, New Orleans has to come to the forefront. Hard to explain the fall off there, not much offense and to compliment it they really can't stop a decent offense. Carolina is about in the same boat, not much offense to speak of, although to be honest they managed more points up in Green Bay last week than I figured they would. Perhaps they are turning the corner, and finally ready to win one at home. Defensively they have the potential to be better than New Orleans on defense, but potential is rarely realized in Carolina these days. Steve Smith could miss this week’s game again, and that would take a moderately bad offense and make it terrible. Terrible however has been the operative phrase for the Saints all year, and for that reason alone, I can’t go and lay 2.5 or even three points with the Saints who are like 2-4 on the road this year. Although they have won 5 of the last 7 games in Carolina, and have covered the last 5 straight times against them. So Saints 5-0 against Carolina and Carolina 0-5 in the last 5 at home, strong trends, but both too unlikely to keep going. I figure Carolina will find it's first home win of the 2007 season this week, with or without them points.
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CAR 23 – N.O. 21
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NO 31 - CAR 6 LOSER
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This one should be a very entertaining game. Washington has really been pretty good all year, despite the pedestrian record. Yet they find themselves in a very tough division and if they want any chance of thinking playoffs, this is a must win game. Tampa has also been a surprise in what turned out to be a somewhat weak division, and probably could start to think about winning this division if they can win this game. So this is equally as big a game for Tampa, who has really been playing well at home where they have won 4 of the last 5 games. Washington will be without their best defensive player Sean Taylor, and T.O. torched them 4 times last week. Garcia to Galloway, isn’t quite the same as Romo to T.O. but with that Tampa defense not yielding more than two TDs per game, if they click half as often as Dallas did it should be enough to get that big pirate ship a-yo-ho-ho-ing as Tampa sails in control of the NFC South.
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TAM 20 – WAS 13
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TAM 19 - WAS 13 WINNER
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The Browndogs seem to have all the breaks going their way this year, and this is actually a huge game for both these teams. Houston got real healthy once again last week, and it's amazing how much better that defense looked once a couple of key offensive guys got back on the field. The Browns have just been on a tear since the opening loss. If you don’t know about Cleveland by now, you simply aren’t a bettor. Cleveland has just been a red hot play, covering the last 5 straight games, and in 8 of the last 9 games. Including the last 4 straight home games, the last three of which as the favorite. So thinking Cleveland is not worthy of laying points is just downright nonsense. The problem is with Houston, who had covered the first three games of this year, then got all banged up, and as they are getting their first line players back from injury have gone out won and covered the last two contests, including another tough road game as the underdog. Something is telling me this one is just like week, 1. I got half a mind to call for the dog, defense wins games, and getting a rejuvenated Houston team as a 3.5 point underdog is awful tempting. Not gonna go against the hot Dawgs, in their pound no less.
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CLE 31 – HOU 27
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CLE 27 - HOU 27 WINNER
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Tennessee is on the road again this week in Cincy. That is not all that unfamiliar territory for the Titans as they have won 6 of their last 8 road games. What can we say about Cincy, except that the Bungles are back. I mean at home last week against Arizona, and they let that bunch put 35 on them, that is a shame. Tennessee probably won't put up as many points this week, but they won't have to in order to be effective. They will probably keep the ball on the ground more this week than they did Monday night, where Vince Young posted his first 300 yard passing game. The Titans should grind out the yards a little slower this week but manage to make them mean more this time as they pound it in and run that clock down. Mix in the occasional Vince Young laser beam and just like that Tennessee can contain that vaunted Cincinnati offense. Cincy will score some in this game no doubt, and they will dance and pump their chests out but in the end they are still one of the worst teams in the AFC. Once again this week, at home as they have done in 4 of the last 6 home games, they will prove that afresh.
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TEN 26 – CIN 23
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CIN 35 - TEN 6 LOSER
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Denver gets back to reality this week as they travel out on the road to Chicago where a still very solid defensive team waits for them. The Bears should be plenty angry after dropping a tough one last week out in Seattle. They did sure put a hurtin’ on Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck, last week and it will take lots of scheming from Mike Shanahan to keep his young QB Jay Cutler from getting pummeled this week. Lots of QB bootlegs and roll outs, and getting the ball out to his playmakers like they did last Monday Night will be the key to success this week. Fact is I like Denver’s offense in this game to find some ways to stay in this one. It’s that Defense that has me worried. The Broncs are an unimpressive 25% covering on the road, and were giving up like 40 points per game in the last few on the road, until last time out in Kansas City. Chicago has a similarly unimpressive offense, one ranked near the bottom of the NFL. That and the Bears having dropped three straight home games does not instill enough confidence in me to lay any points with them that’s, for sure.
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DEN 19 – CHI 16
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CHI 37 – DEN 34 LOSER
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Oh the Raiders. Like money in the bank for me, and like an old faithful lover turned away for a young fresh face, who turns out to be less than impressive, I turned my back on my old faithful, and was left incomplete. Just like Dante Culpepper’s last ditch desperation passes last week. Really none of you can image how empty that left me feeling. The Jokeland Faders! Well no more of that foolery. While that Kansas City defense managed to limit Payton Manning and the Colts offense to only one TD, they should be able to keep Oakland’s offense sputtering. Without Larry Johnson toting the rock for Kansas City, It’s gonna be like an old fashioned revival out in Kansas City where the Priest will be dishing out some of that old time religion on Sunday. Priest Holmes that is will be preaching from the gospel of smashmouth, and the Longhorn has enough left in the tank to power Kansas City on to it’s 6th strait win over the Faders. Then you shall all see why the Raiders are back on top my list as number 1!
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KC 23 – OAK 16
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OAK 20 – KC 17 LOSER
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You know I may direct more than my fair share of abuse towards the Arizona Cards, and more often than not the Cards have rewarded me handsomely. This year however the pesky little red birds refuse to go away quietly. They are still hanging around in the NFC west where 5-5 is good enough to be only one game back of Seattle for first. Most so-called experts had spent the offseason telling us that San Fran would be the team in that position this time of year, instead the Niners have nudged Arizona out of that sure thing status and are now one of the best teams… to pick against that. So why go and ruin such a good thing with logic. Could the fact that Arizona has won 4 of the last 5 meetings with San Fran be a factor. 10.5 points is a whole bunch, but until San Fran figures out that it is OK to score in the NFL, 10.5 points will not be enough to entice me to take that play.
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AZ 27 - S.F. 12
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SF 37 – AZ 31 LOSER
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Well I got to hand it to Baltimore, they sure are finding creative and interesting ways to lose this year. Last week they lost a game that half the team figured that they had won and was undressing in the locker room when they were told to come back out and play overtime. That can't be good for the psyche of that team. San Diego can't be feeling too good about their last road trip either, getting handed a punishing loss in Jacksonville. The trends shown that San Diego wasn’t a strong road play. At home it’s a different story where the Bolts have rang it up in 4 of 5 contests in their back yard. The stats aren’t quite so kind for the struggling Ravens though. The offensively challenged Ravens, they have turned the offense back over to Kyle Boller searching for some answers, even if they did put up 30 points last week, they still found a way to lose, and they would be lucky to put up half that many ponts this week.
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SD 34 - BAL 16
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SD 32 – BAL 14 WINNER
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The question at this point isn't weather or not New England will win this game, it's weather or not New England will win them all. New England can clinch the AFC East with a win this week. We all saw what they can do on any given Sunday, now with some motivation it’s hard to imagine what they will try do this week.
Though when I watch New England, I can’t help feeling like a middle aged man buying a really expensive sports car, that they are compensating for something.
They are definitely playing like a team on a mission.
In trying to go undefeated, say they are 15-0 and facing the Giants in week 17, and then watch Brady suffer some stupid injury or something and be lost for the playoffs, and as a result will lose their first playoff game. Don't worry New England fans, with my record predicting things this year, that probably just sealed the perfect season, and perhaps capping it off with the another one of those trophies! The moral of this story is keep your eye on the prize and just go out and take care of business, after they clinch this week, then we can possibly start talking about upset. Oh yeah, more about this game. Philly is a tantalizing pick, and were they healthy I can see Donovan McNabb actually giving the Pats a battle. However odds are he either won't play, or won't be at full speed when he does play, and really is Philly gonna beat this team with A.J. Feeley at QB?
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NE 41 - PHI 10
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NE 31 - PHI 28 WINNER/No Cover
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One more big one to cap off this holiday week. When we say Big we mean really big like 17.5 points worth. Actually this is a pretty tough pick, as Pittsburgh is a very solid home team having won 5 straight there, and covered in like 4 of the last 5. Miami as we all know has yet to win a game, but funny thing though they have covered the last 3 straight, and getting 17 are a tempting dog. In fact a little too tempting for my taste. It has been a weird week in the NFL and I gotta hunch Miami despite dropping 5 of the last 7 games against Pittsburgh can keep that streak of hanging tough in tact. I don't know if I would play that straight up, but 17.5 maybe teased out to 23 points might be worth a buck or two. Still Miami can be awful woeful, and taking an 0-10 team is never a very wise move. But with the kind of week I been having where I had two or three victories I was counting on torn from me in the final seconds, lets throw another log onto that fire!
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PIT 23 - MIA 6
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PIT 3 - MIA 0 WINNER