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Cleveland rocks their way into Baltimore, where the quagmire that is the Baltimore offense was predictably impotent last week again as Baltimore let Cincinnati kick their way past them. It gets no easier this week, as Baltimore still struggles in pass coverage with their top cover guys likely out yet again, and Derek Anderson and the Browns can really throw the pill around and score some points. The Browns beat up on Baltimore by a 27-13 score back in September in Cleveland, but this week are in Baltimore. The Ravens had won 3 of the last 4 home games up there in Baltimore, and 4 of the last 5 times they hosted Cleveland out there, but Baltimore has struggled going 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games. And coincidentally only covered in one of the last 5 games against Cleveland. It's tricky going against a home dog like that, but right now Baltimore is one dog who is all bark and no bite.
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CLE 23 - BAL 13
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CLE 33 – BAL 30 WINNER
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Here is another one of those made for prime time match ups that features two of the better teams in the AFC. Jacksonville gets back home after punching Tennessee in the mouth and managing to hang around in the picture fo the AFC South. San Diego helped Jacksonville's case last week by taking down Indy and thus keeping them within arm's reach of the Jags. The Jags defense will have it's hands full trying to contain LaDamian Tomlinson and the San Diego offense, but as we pointed out last time that San Diego was on the road, they were only 1-4 ATS as the visitor, and played right into form getting torched by Minnesota, dropping them to 1-5 ATS on the road. J'ville may not have an Adrian Peterson, but they do have a Maurice Jones-Drew, and they can run the ball too, J'ville may not be an offensive machine like some teams, but they find their way to get their points. Maybe a defensive pick for a TD or a special teams play will be the difference in this game. Tough to pass up San Diego as an underdog, awfully inviting getting a couple of points there, especially as Jacksonville is only 1-4 ATS at home on the year themselves.
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JAC 20 - SD 16
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JAC 24 – SD 17 WINNER
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Philly had a rough go at first, but took off in the second half last week, and with a win here can find themselves back at .500. 50-50 is about right for Philly this year, as they have been like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this year, lighting up teams like Detroit, and then when they have a chance to right the ship they shoot themselves in the foot, like they did against Dallas, or Chicago. However to their credit, Philly may have lost 5 games already but all 5 losses came against pretty decent teams. This week they are dealing with Miami, hardly resembling a winning team this year.
Miami had a golden opportunity for victory last week slide right through their flippers. Counting that game winless Miami has lost 5 games now by 3 points or less. Show you how close this league really is. You know if you look at the last two games now you can see a bit of a trend here with Miami, yeah two covers. Getting big points again this week in Philly. A Philly team that can be a little inconsistent, especially against lesser, or at least less interesting opponents. Philly will play down to the competition, for most of the game, so laying that many points on a team who is inconsistent is a concern. The pressure for Miami to avoid going winless starts to really mount, and the tension adds to the ineptitude, expect another big 4th qtr collapse this week.
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PHI 30 - MIA 17
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PHI 17 – MIA 7 Winner/No Cover
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Now here is one of those great match ups, at least the kind we love around here. The Jets are one of the best, at least one of my bests. Consistency, predictability, with the Jets you know what you get. The Jets, Miami and the Raiders are my big three right now. Pittsburgh is a little less reliable though they can look so good rolling someone like Baltimore by 31 on national TV, then squeeze it out at home against a Browns team that was getting 10 points and could be the harbinger of trouble in this one. Can't forget that the Steelers were beaten up 5 weeks ago on the road against Arizona. This is a hungry desperate home standing Jets team, they started to score points some in their last game against Washington. Could the Jets could be finding their stride offensively and could just be that big shocking home dog against a Steeler team that is just looking to stay healthy in this one. Pittsburgh should win this as they have in 6 of the previous 7 visits to play the Jets in Jersey. I am a little concerned about that 10 points in this one.
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PIT 24 - NYJ 14
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NYJ 19 – PIT 16 LOSER
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Speaking of great games here is another one. However the injury status to Adrian Peterson clearly makes this a much riskier pick. Tell the truth I don't really care for Minnesota laying too many points. They had trouble as favorites all year, and that was with Peterson. The Raiders have backslid back into my infamous no. 1 slot, and after making me squeeze it out a little bit last week, they came through with flying colors and dropped like a mortgage lenders stock price, right into my pocket. All that aside, I like Justin Fargas at RB - I think he brings a spark, I think that someone on that Raider offense can make a play here or there, Would be something if Culpepper can get in and make some plays too. That might be all it takes against a Minnesota team that I question where they will get their points without Adrian Peterson. However these are the Raiders, and Minny has been known to put up defensive scores in every now and again in these games, and these are the Raiders... they will find a way to help them out.
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MIN 12 - OAK 7
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MIN 29 – OAK 22 WINNER/No Cover
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The Chiefs were battered at home last week by Denver who returned to the fundamentals and pounded the ball at Kansas City. That was without the passing threat that a Payton Manning brings. Now maybe K.C. can also come up with 6 INTS because with their anemic offense they will need to in order to keep this one within arms length. Instead Kansas City throws Brodie Croyle out there into the fire for his first start in a loud and crazy Indianapolis dome. It's almost as if coach Herman Edwards is saying well we don't have much shot in this one anyways... which if that is the attitude frankly could make them a little more dangerous, but only mathematically – as they are getting a two touchdown spread. Yet the bottom line here is if Edwards the coach is thinking that this one is a foregone conclusion, why would you want to go against that?
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IND 31 - K.C. 7
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IND 13 – KC 10 Winner/No Cover
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The Green Bay Packers are not only good, they are seemingly getting stronger each week. Last weeks 34-0 blow out of a Minnesota team that was playing well going into that game is a case in point, arguably the Packers best win to date. The Packers are clearly making a case that they are not only back, but the top dog in the NFC. This week they host Carolina who has not been playing all that well as of late, dropping the last three straight games and failing again to win a game at home. Although Carolina has won 4 games on the road this year. However none of that was up in the frozen tundra of Lambeau field, against this group of Packers, playing like this. That defense in Green Bay is really coming on and playing just as well as ole Brett Favre looks like he's 27 years old out there chucking the ball all around and the Packers are lighting up scoreboards. No I don't give Vinny or David Carr, or the Panthers much of a shot in this one either.
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GB 24 - CAR 10
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Dallas just completed a big swing up to the Northeast and comes back home in clear control of the NFC East, having beaten NY and Philly to take command of the NFC East. Washington comes into this one after a disappointing collapse where they lost to the Eagles at home and now head down to Dallas where they have been kicked aside in 10 of the last 11 games there. The only hope for Washington really is if Dallas relaxes and lets up some figuring that they have it all wrapped up now. If they do that, and Washington really has a great game they got a chance, to keep it close. Dallas just made a huge statement on the road, coming home and whipping Washington would be the trifecta. This is a bitter rival that they will show no mercy towards, Dallas will be out to put the exclamation point on their claim to the East, and Tony Romo will get his in this game against a weakened Washington secondary. The Cowboys will be focused on their rival in this game then can let up next week when they have their second bye, and face the Jets...
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DAL 30 - WAS 17
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DAL 28 – WAS 23 Winner/No Cover
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The Bucs are back this week heading up to Atlanta for an NFC Southern division showdown against the surging Falcons. Atlanta has been holding it together, as we pointed out last week putting together a 5 win 1 loss mark in the last 6 games against the spread. That means that they are playing together, and in the South where Tampa holds down first place with only 5 wins, a win here by Atlanta would put them only 1 game out of first place. Impressive really when you consider where this team was at not that long ago. Tampa has been very good in Atlanta though, winning 5 of the last 7 years they met up in Georgia. Although Tampa is a shaky 3-7 ATS on the road over the last 10 games, for Jon Grudens crew. Something is telling me that anything over 3 points in the game ought to be good enough.
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TAM 19 - ATL 17
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TAM 31 – ATL 7 Winner/No Cover
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Another very tricky game to handicap sure we have two identical 4-5 record teams. Despite Houston’s strong start to the 2007 campaign they had faltered as of late dropping 5 of the previous 6 games, looking more like the Texans of old than the new look hard nosed Texans. Then they tangled with the Raiders before their bye and wound up posting an impressive road victory, so could the new look, hard nosed Texans be back, or was that simply that they were playing the Raiders? The Saints well my close personal friend "hammerin" Hank Goldberg let me know that New Orleans is just god awful as a big favorite, and as that line shot up to 13.5 points in some places, now we have New Orleans as a road favorite against a pretty good defensive team. New Orleans still won 4 of the last 5 games, even with the loss last week, and if you look at the lines they not only didn't cover last week as a 12point favorite, but also didn't get the money as a 7.5 point favorite during that same run. Of course they then went out and put up huge wins averaging putting up 35 points per game following that as small favorites, don't like to go against AFC home dogs here, but Houston can't score like St. Louis did last week, but New Orleans can.
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NO 27 - HOU 24
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HOU 23 – NO 10 LOSER
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So the Buffalo Bills courtesy of their 4 game winning streak have broken above the .500 mark and now have to be classified among the winning teams, we should say that at least this week while we can because now they will be hosting the Pats. The Pats, unless you just got off the boat from Kazakhstan are pretty much the class of the league at this point. The Pats have made mincemeat out of every team that has lined up against them. So why would it be any different this week?
Are you telling me JP Losman is going to outplay Tom Brady? Yeh, right, have another chicken wing.
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NE 38 - BUF 14
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NE 56 - BUF 10 WINNER
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Both of these teams had a couple nice wins last week. Arizona as we said does play better at home and Cincy benefit from playing a Baltimore team without any real offense. I kind of like the Cardinals in this game, the match ups point to Arizona able to exploit the Cincy defense, they certainly exploited better defenses this year. The folding house of Cards defense has been pretty surprisingly respectable as well containing high powered Detroit last week and keeping Washington and Tampa pretty much in check the previous weeks. While Cincy comes with the highly touted offense and they can make some plays, yet they have been inconsistent at best this year, so it looks like the Cards should have an edge here. So while you can make a case that Arizona can with this game, these are the Cards we're talking about here. Arizona has only 1 road win all year, with 4 losses. As I have been doomed to do all year it seems like I can see why this pick should be the Cards, but we both know better than that don't we?
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CIN 28 - AZ 24
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AZ 35 – CIN 27 LOSER
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This is another very big match up of what now looks like the wild card teams in the NFC. Both these two teams are trying to bounce back after what could be hugely disheartening losses. The winner of this game will likely be in the drivers seat for the wildcard at this point. This is a tough match up though as Detroit can be very suspect in the secondary, getting a 50 slapped on them earlier this year by Philly, and then getting wiped by Washington by a score of 34-7, both teams that the Giants beat this year. Then last week getting lit up by Kurt Warner and the Cards. Likewise though, the Giants secondary can get torched by quality WRs like T.O. did to them last week, and Detroit has Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams who can certainly exploit the Giants defensive backs. I expect another big time aerial assault in this one with points coming like crazy. Detroit is 4-0 at home this year, but the Giants can bring it on the road having won 5 of the last 7 road games, and get this the Giants have won 4 of the last 5 times they have come into Detroit. Pretty compelling case for big blue guys and certainly worth thinking long and hard about. However in keeping with tradition on this season, I go and analyze the game all one way, then of course fade that pick.
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DET 34 - NYG 31
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NYG 16 – DET 10 LOSER
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Well I suspected the Rams would be looking more like themselves last week, as they are starting to get healthy on offense, just didn't want to go against New Orleans with how well they were playing. Then of course my old pal "hammerin" Hank Goldberg let me know that New Orleans is just god awful as a big favorite, and as that line shot up to 13.5 points in some places, all that is besides the point. St. Louis basically had the offense working and when they get it going like that, can light up the scoreboard, and last week they did. Getting that first W is a big thing for a teams confidence and a confident St. Louis team will be playing much better than the downtrodden bunch that lost it’s first 8 games. San Fran will be trying to bounce back, heck they would be happy for any positive bounces of the football after that embarrassment on national television. The Niners did upset St. Louis back in week one, in their highest offensive output of the year 17-16 when they met back in week #1 in St. Louis. The way that San Fran. offense looked last week, 17 points would be highly optimistic, even against the St. Louis Defense. Then you have to weigh whether or not the Rams offense has improved enough to muster more than 16 points themselves in this one.
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STL 27 - SF 17
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STL 13 – SF 9 WINNER
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The Bears got a little of their growl back last week when they went out to Oakland and had themselves some Raid. Are the Bears bad enough to warrant another wild west coast road trip and bring back another W? They could be, the Bears have covered in 7 of the last 10 on the road. Seattle on the other hand is right in it's element playing the pacific northwest, 5-1 in the last 6 at home. They sure looked good torching San Fran Monday night even without much of a running threat. They are now in the drivers seat, and I would say a very good bet to win the NFC west. The key for Seattle is how well their defense played Monday Night. Sure they shut out the Niners, who are somewhat offensively challenged, albeit an NFL team. Chicago doesn't scare anyone with that offense of theirs regardless of who is under center this year either. Basically both teams win with defense so if you aren't digging Seattle in this one, the best play might just be the under.
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SEA 19 - CHI 13
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SEA 30 – CHI 23 WINNER
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Ok one more to cap off a very interesting week. Denver at home is always a good play, except last time they were on Monday night, they played good enough, but still got the loss. In actuality Denver has only covered once in the last 11 home games, and that is just not a very strong trend. Tennessee is a scrapper on the road and have covered in 6 of the last 7 road games. However more than the stats, you just have to like the way Tennessee runs the ball, against Denver’s porous run defense. The trench war clearly favors the Titans. Here is where that home field advantage can come to play and if the Broncos defense can limit Tennessee and stuff their run game a little bit, they can be the ones pulling the game out late.
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DEN 20 – TEN 19
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DEN 34 - TEN 20 WINNER/No Cover
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