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Another big test for Pittsburgh this week as they host yet another contender in the AFC North division. Pittsburgh sent Baltimore off reeling in their Monday Night contest last week, making the defending divisions champs look bad in the process. This week the test comes in the form of the resurgent Browns. The Browns come into this one really clicking, they have won 4 of the last 5 games, only loss in that span came at New England. Unlike the offensively challenged Ravens, the Browns have been averaging close to 30 points per game on the season. The Browns problem has been on defense where they also allow close to 30 points per game. The Browns are one of the worst defenses in the league in stopping the run, and if there is one formula that indicates success in the NFL it's teams who can run the ball, and teams who can stop the run. Pittsburgh excels at both, while Cleveland, well they hope to outscore you. Works against lesser foes, but that won’t cut it against fundamentally sound teams, like Pittsburgh.
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PIT 31 - CLE 24
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PIT 31 - CLE 28 WINNER
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This game is the less marquee match in the NFC East this week. Yet if you ask me this might actually be the better game. Washington despite the big ego bruise from their tangle with New England a couple weeks ago, rebounded last week, and hung on to defeat a game Jets team who jumped all over Washington early on. Philly though could have managed to get back into the playoff race at home last week, instead they dropped a big egg, getting blasted, and relegating themselves to also-ran status as we start the second half of the season. Even also rans can get up a good effort against a bitter rival. While Washington has posted a credible 5-3 mark, and is 3-1 at home this year. Philly is actually a respectable 2-2 on the road this year and have covered in 5 of their last 7 road trips, while having won in Washington in 6 of the last 7 times they were the visitors there. So the Eagles won't be intimidated going in there. Washington did get a win against Philly in Philly back in September, and counting that game Washington has covered in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Philly. This one will come down to making plays, if Philly can get something going and make some big plays, they could get back to their winning ways. This has not been the year for the Birds though, and the cracks in their armor are starting to look like gashes. Like the gashes the Redskins will look to inflict in the Eagles defense as Washington looks to reverse the trends saying that their stadium is a bird sanctuary.
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WAS 20 - PHI 13
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PHI 33 - WAS 25 LOSER
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A couple more also rans going at it in another highly attractive week 10 match up. Something has got to give as Atlanta is 0-4 on the road, while Carolina is still looking for their first home win. At 0-3 in Carolina this season, it actually gets worse going back to last year Carolina has failed to cover in the last 5 straight home games. Atlanta despite getting beaten up all over the league and in their locker room, still rallied to win, and with a late 4th qtr FG even managed to cover last week. Sure Carolina has a 4-1 mark in the last 5 against Atlanta. Carolina also got David Carr back at QB last week, and I wonder if they wouldn't have been better off sticking Vinny back in there? Atlanta thwarted offensively challenged San Fran at home last week, and Carolina really doesn't have much more offense to speak of. Now the Steve Smith factor can be huge as Smith can be a difference maker, but that assumes that someone has to get him the ball. Last time against Atlanta Smith only caught one pass, Carolina won anyhow. If they can get Smith the ball more, he can make plays, and could break this one wide open. With Carr back there though, he is as likely to throw one to D'Angelo Hall as he is to Steve Smith. Then you figure with all the turmoil and such brewing in Atlanta, and they still managed to put up a 4-1 mark in the last 5 with the spread, 6-1 with the points on the road, and get this 5-2 in the last 7 games in Carolina. That’s why I am going with Atlanta on the road to keep this one close.
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CAR 24 - ATL 22
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ATL 20 - CAR 13 COVER
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In case like me last week you missed the memo the Saints are back. New Orleans put 41 up on Jacksonville, and has now reeled off 4 wins in row. St. Louis is still seeking its first win. Normally New Orleans would be the no-brainer pick here. Yet St. Louis has been getting healthier, and given a week off with their bye week a chance to really study a former division rival, it may be a tougher game than anyone will predict. Let alone that St. Louis is getting a whole ton of points. However with that N.O. offense clicking the way it is again, and something clearly to play for like a chance to move into postseason relevancy with a win, the Saints will bear down and if they can put up 41 on Jacksonville they will easily outscore a gamely St. Louis side. Although St. Louis is one offense if they get some things going can also score and make some plays they should find the end zone a couple of times. That could make it a whole lot more interesting than I would like, despite that, New Orleans should get er done in the dome.
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N.O. 36 - STL 24
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STL 37 - NO 29 LOSER
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Lookout for Buffalo, the Bills have now run off 3 straight wins, and if not for the Dallas debacle there on Monday Night, the Bills could have be coming into this one having won 5 straight. If "if's and buts were candies and Nuts, every day would be like Christmas" that could also go for Miami this season, where "if this" or "but that" might mean that Miami wouldn't be 0-8. Now there are all sorts of pools and wagering options as to weather Miami will go to 0-16 (can get a pretty good payoff too if you grab that action!) No matter how it's perceived, no one wants to be on an 0-16 team. Buffalo may be that far ahead of Miami in the standings, but really they aren't that far from Buffalo when it comes to talent. Buffalo is only 1-2 on the road this year, having only beaten the Jets. Although Buffalo seem to play well in Miami having whupped on Miami the last 5 meetings between them, and having covered in 4 of the last 5 games down in Miami. Miami can take solace in the fact that over like the last 15 years or so they have enjoyed beating Buffalo about 69% of the time they host them in Miami. Just the sheer percentages say that trends like (Buffalo dominating on the road) cant go on. So you figure this is one game Miami will feel it has a shot to win in. They probably won't but statistically speaking these things do happen. Pretty sad when the only case you can make for a team to win is that eventually every NFL team wins, at least since 1976. Buffalo has bigger things in mind, like getting into the playoff picture with a big road win!
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BUF 17 - MIA 16
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BUF 13 - MIA 10 WINNER
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Denver rides into Kansas City this week, having gone through two disheartening losses back to back like that and 1-5 over the last 6 games. Kansas City was going along rather well for themselves and still find themselves tied atop the AFC West. Yet only one game separates these two teams. Kansas City could be without Larry Johnson for this game as well, which makes this pick all that much tougher. Denver has a full complement of players, although not many of them have been worthy of compliments lately. Now as we learned last week against a very stout road team I did not like to go against the home team in Kansas City, so using that logic, it makes much less sense that I would go with a much lesser road team, even one with a 1-2 road record this year. Especially one who has lost 4 straight in Kansas City, and only won once in the last 8 in Kansas City.
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KC 23 - DEN 17
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DEN 27 - KC 11 LOSER
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Now this one will be one major league slugfest. Both of these two teams play a hard nosed defensive brand of football, and this one will no doubt be a punishing hard hitting affair. I wouldn't be surprised to see the injury rolls swell up after this game. Tennessee has been one of the best teams this year, as they were down the stretch last year, they have won 5 of the last 6 games this year, and covered in 7 of the last 10 games. They are an impressive 6-2 at home during that same stretch including a 24-17 victory over Jacksonville there late last year, and a 13-10 September beating of the Jags in J-ville back when the Jags were at full strength. Taking those games as an indication, here we have two solid defensive teams, both teams prefer to run the ball, and play sound football and in the case of J-ville it's cause they really can ONLY run the ball. So where does the Edge in this game lie? The X factor, if you will. Actually let's call it the Y factor, as in V.Y. - Vince Young. Quinn Grey may be a decent backup and shown last week he could make a few plays, but V.Y. can win games, as his Titans did in Jacksonville earlier this year, as they have been doing regularly since he took over the job at QB, as he will do again this week.
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TEN 21 - JAC 16
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JAC 28 - TEN 13 LOSER
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Green Bay has been like a machine this year, and a little under the radar no less. The Packers have quietly put together the second best record in the NFL (behind New England) including a real tough two game road strecth that the Packers went and swept through. Now they get rival Minnesota back home at the not yet frozen tundra. Minnesota has been surprisingly tough on the Packers, and especially in Green Bay, where the Vikes have covered in the last 5 visits there. Minnesota had an offensive explosion last week, well not really they had an Adrian Peterson explosion. Nothing has been quiet about this rookies impact this year, he has set records, and single handedly been carrying the Vikings on his back. He will no doubt be counted on again if the Vikes stand any chance to pull off another upset in Green Bay. Not that he can't but Green Bay bottled him up once already and will be keying on him again, and Brett Favre will keep on riding that hot hand of his as far as it will take him. This year that has been plenty far(ve) enough.
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GB 20 - MIN 10
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GB 34 - MIN 0 WINNER
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Cincinnati just keeps it's downward descent going, in addition to dropping another game last week in Buffalo, they could now be without "Ocho Cinco" there. Cincy now takes on Baltimore who also features an equally bruising defense. The Ravens had better hope that their defense is as good as advertised because what I saw there on Monday Night, that offense can't do much else, so they will need that Defense to come to the rescue. Baltimore has been an atrocious 1-8 against the spread this season, and don't seem to fare much better at home where they only covered in twice of the last 6 home games. Then you throw in Cincy has beaten Baltimore in 5 of the last 6 meetings, and you do have the makings of potential upset. The thing is that most of those stats I just cited were compiled when these two teams were playing better football, neither team has been very impressive this year, and Cincy has lost 5 straight road games. So are those really the odds you want to be going against if looking for winners. Right, despite the pitiful ATS record, the sorry display on Monday night, the Ravens still look like they have more left in the tank than does Cincy.
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BAL 19 - CIN 16
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CIN 21 - BAL 7 COVER
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Now for the NFCs version of SB XLI 1/2 at least in the NFC East. Dallas fresh off a tough road victory in Philadelphia rolls 90 miles up the Jersey Turnpike to New York city for the rematch with NY. Dallas beat NY in the season opener this year in Dallas, by a 45-35 score in a game that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. New York has really shored up their defense since that game. Specifically at DE, Michael Strahan went straight from holding out all training camp into playing most of that game and Osi Umenyora missed most of that game with an injury, both players will be back and healthy this time, and their pressure up front sets everything up for New Yorks defense. These two rivals have split their last ten meetings each one having won 5 times, but when you factor in the pointspread New York has a clear advantage having covered the number in 7 of the last 8 meetings. The Giants have also won 6 of the last 8 meetings at home against Dallas, so given that they are getting points this week, this game is a tougher pick that it seems. However one thing was clearly evident to me last night as I watched Dallas cap off a very good Sunday for my wallet. Dallas are the class of the NFC, and New York will be the stage for Dallas to assert that fact to the rest of the y'all.
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DAL 37 - NY 31
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DAL 31 - NYG 20 WINNER
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The Lions have roared their way to the upper echelon of the NFC. Arizona is once again playing to form and have thus far been typically disappointing. They Struggled offensively last week, despite keeping the Bucs offense in check most of last weeks game. Detroit needs to be careful that they don't underestimate a seemingly wounded Arizona team as they are actually 4-2 in the last 6 games at home. While Detroit is actually better than they have been known to be on the road, and are coming in at a nice even 2-2 mark on the road, but watch that as both of those losses were lopsided blowouts. Detroit actually graded out last week to be the strongest play of the week, and the Lions went out and looked not like an upstart improving young team, but actually looking like a high powered machine. Gifts like last week will be few and far between, especially now that Detroit has posted a 6-2 mark. Yet here they are as an underdog again which really sort of takes me aback somewhat. Still getting Detroit and points won't come around that often, so foolishly this season have I been suckered in by bad teams masquerading as good teams. Am I being fooled again? Don't know. I do know that clearly this year Detroit is the better team, and part of winning is betting on the better team.
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DET 31 - AZ 23
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AZ 31 - DET 21 LOSER
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Watching Oakland last week, I tend to think that somehow the Jokeland Faders are back. They sure had me fooled though thinking that they had a chance at home last week. They are home again this week, hosting equally disappointing Chicago Bear-Cubs. The Bears did have the week off to lick their wounds after losing their home tussle with the Lions, now they get a chance to get back at someone more their speed. The Bears come in with a solid 2-2 road mark, while the Raiders have no home field advantage to speak of having only managed one win out of four home games. Yeah that matters and in the Raiders case, they are a good bet to lose any game that they play home or away. What stats? Trends? Pshaw, back to the old reliable formula, thats right, just FADE the RAID Baby!
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CHI 20 - OAK 12
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CHI 17 - OAK 6 WINNER
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This should be a tantalizing tangle of a couple of AFC powers that both were upset last Sunday. The Colts lost the so-called Super Bowl LXI-1/2 and their run at being undefeated, now they are going around all week saying how it was just one game. San Diego returns home after their defense was gouged last week for an NFL record by a single back as Adrian Peterson ran wild on the Chargers defense. That is going to be one angry unit coming back to San Diego. Now we have seen this sort of scenario before, and I was all over it when the Chargers hosted Kansas City after a big loss earlier, and remember how that turned out? Yeah well... while Indy lost at home last week, they still managed to cover that spread, and I for one don't want to go against the Colts after a big loss like that as a 3.5 point dog no less.
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IND 36 - SD 34
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SD 23 - IND 21
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OK one more game to cap off week #10. The Struggling Niners go up to the Pacific Northwest to battle the Seahawks. The Hawks are a much better home team than they are on the road, having won three of the last 4 home games with the only loss coming at the hands of the Saints. However on the road Seattle has dropped three of the last four, ah but the only win on the road for Seattle was a 23-3 punishing of San Fran in San Francisco back in September. In fact San Fran pretty much has lost every game since, September, now running their losing streak up to 6 games. Chances of reversing that up in Seattle this week on Monday night, are probably much longer than the 9.5 points that the books tagged 'em with. Sure Alexander has had trouble running the ball this year, and Seattle has been hot and cold. Yet in a November home game in the second half of the season Seattle finds itself in position to win and control it's own destiny. Upsets can happen as we saw plenty of this week, but a team must have some offensive prowess to be in position to pull the upset, and San Fran has failed to score more than 17 points in any game all season. Those are not the kind of numbers to put your stake into, that is if you are interested in keeping it.
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SEA 30 - SF 13
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SEA 24 - SF 0
Bye: New England, NY Jets, Tampa Bay, Houston
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