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Denver pays a visit to the motor city, where Detroit can be called the big surprise of this season. The Lions got it done last week on the road and eradicated rival Chicago completing the first season sweep of the Bears since 2004. Detroit has the second highest win total in the NFC with their 5-2 mark, and are an even more impressive 3-0 at home. Denver comes in after that Monday Night home disappointment losing in overtime to the Packers, another NFC North team, in a game that they tied at the buzzer in regulation instead of winning. Now remember all that trend business of how Denver was a underwhelming 1-8 ATS. Couple that with straight up losing 4 of the last 5 and only going 1-5 ATS in the last 6 road games, and you can see why oddsmakers like Detroit in this one. Even with all that it's tough to take Detroit and have to lay some points, but heck it's November now, and all that talk of Turkey gets the Motor city all excited that their team will be playing some relevant football come Turkey time. Maybe it's time for the NFL edge to take the Lions seriously as well, good news for Denver fans.
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DET 27 - DEN 20
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DET 44 - DEN 7 WINNER
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The Niners finally got QB Alex Smith back last week, but it was of little help as the Saints went out to San Fran and rolled the Niners. The good news for San Francisco is that Smith did manage to toss a TD pass in the game last week, which at least offers the team hope that they might be able to generate some passing game to try and get defenses to back off the line of scrimmage a little bit. That would be the key to getting Frank Gore and the running game going again. Atlanta offers San Fran a very good opportunity to build off that, as they are a team in turmoil themselves. DeAngelo Hall's comments last week only compounded the struggles Atlanta has had this year as the team adjusts to life without Michael Vick and with the apparently unpopular Bobby Petrino at the helm. After they made the move last week to insert new QB Byron Leftwich, he promptly went and got hurt (which is reason why Jacksonville gave up on him by the By[ron]), and well the Falcons seem cursed to have to play Joey Harrington at QB the rest of the season, no matter what. He can do a whole bunch to redeem himself with a big performance this week. The oddsmakers seem to like Atlanta's chances in this one instilling them as a 3 pt fave. Kind of hard to see that even as bad as San Fran has looked dropping the last 5 straight. Taking Atlanta and laying points, well that kind of makes even Detroit look like a bargain. Sure Atlanta has covered in 4 of the last 6 games, but was getting points in all those contests. Even though I give Atlanta some credit for hanging tough despite that adversity, and for playing at home, I just see too much internal strife with this team to seriously consider taking them and laying any points.
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ATL 17 - SF 16
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ATL 20 - SF 16 WINNER/No Cover
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Don't look now, but Buffalo fresh off a sweep of division rivals the New York Jets, finds itself hosting a game at home in Buffalo with a chance to even their record this week. They get a break when they face a defensively depleted Bengal bunch this week. They will need to take advantage of that Cincy defense and finish off drives with points, because even in defeat to the mighty Steelers last week the Bengals still managed to put up some points, and Buffalo will need to do better than 13 points (Buffalo's average offensive output this season) to win this game. Despite the 2-5 record and going 0-5 in the last 5 road games, Cincy has still managed to put up close to 26 points per game. It's their defense that has killed them yielding upwards of 30 points per game. It's stats like that one that have the oddsmakers giving Buffalo points at home once again this week. If you like that sort of thing, Buffalo has paid off in 8 of the last 9 home games ATS, and by the way are 5-0 in it's last 5 meetings with Cincy. Sure Cincy could turn this one into a track meet and it seems there is no way Buffalo can keep up, but what is that old cliché that we just love around here, yeah that's right defense wins football games.
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BUF 26 - CIN 24
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BUF 33 - CIN 21 WINNER
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Tennessee just keeps the party rolling along there in Nashville. They have now won 4 of the last 5 games and got their main man Vince Young back at the controls. The only home loss for Tennessee this year was a week 2 loss to the Colts, and that was only by a 22-20 score. Keep that in mind when you saw the ease with which Indy dismantled Carolina in Charlotte last week. Carolina though posting a solid 4-2 mark through the beginning of the year, saw things unravel for them a little bit last week, dropping their record down to 4-3. However to their credit Carolina is 4-0 on the road this year, with all three losses coming at home. That is all just window dressing though, as they now have 40 something year old Vinny Testaverde at QB, and will need him to strap it up again and match up against Young and a Titans defense that is only giving up an average of 16 points per game, and that is figuring in that wild 38-36 victory against Houston a couple weeks back. While Carolina has shown they can win with Vinny at the helm, the QB situation caught up with them a little bit last week, and they face another very good defense again this week, and what was that Cliché I just used, that's right it's defense that wins NFL football games. Defense and protecting the football, and Carolina has been turning the ball over more than they have been taking it away. With old Vinny at the helm, keep your eye on that turnover ratio.
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TEN 20 - CAR 13
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TEN 20 - CAR 7 WINNER
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Green Bay stays out in the AFC west again this week after last weeks overtime thriller in Denver. The Chiefs were sitting pretty atop the AFC West before they got last week off, and will be looking to hang onto their top spot out there with San Diego coming on like gangbusters. The Chiefs after a slow start have run off wins in 4 of the last 5 games. Kansas City has always been very tough at home covering in like 13 of the last 17 games there. They have a pretty solid defense and have Larry Johnson to tote the rock. Green Bay is no stranger to winning on the road now having gone and won their last 5 road games, and as we pointed out Monday night Green Bay is now 10-1 in the last 11 football games they have played, regardless of where they play. Throw in an equally impressive 6-1 mark when you factor in the point spread and you would be hard pressed not to take the points in this one. Other than the fact that KC has won the last 5 straight meetings against Green Bay, you would be hard pressed to find an edge either way in this one. Sure would be fun to watch, but if I had to put a few bucks on it, I learned long ago, a teams luck on the road can't last forever, and I really don't like to go against Kansas City at home regardless of who they are playing.
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KC 24 - GB 20
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GB 33 - KC 22 Loser
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Minnesota tries to rebound this week after another tough hard fought battle that they wound up on the wrong side of. San Diego may have been burning last week, but it was the Chargers offense that was really on fire last Sunday. (sorry, stupidity intended!) The Chargers have returned to the form we all expected from them all year. It's not as if I give Minnesota no chance in this game, they are a home dog this week, because anytime you can play some defense and have Adrian Peterson to run the ball with you have a chance in every game you play, and San Diego is only 1-4 beating the spread on the road. Yet the record says Minnesota is 1-8 against the spread at home so even with a TD head start, it's a pretty iffy deal. As has been the case for Minnesota all this year, they just seem to come up short in the end, and I can't see this one turning out any differently.
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SD 27 - MIN 19
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MIN 35 - MIN 17 LOSER
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This is one contest I will be watching with some intrigue, as New Orleans, who also looks to have regained their stride from a year ago has now run off 3 consecutive victories, and seeks to keep it going against Jacksonville. I short changed Jacksonville last week, I know that they had a strong defense, and didn't give Quinn Gray much of a chance after what I saw on the Monday night game, but he didn't really hurt the team and made a big late TD pass.
Gotta hunch J'ville will need to put up some more points this week, as Drew Brees has regained his touch and seems to be clicking especially with Marques Colston and I can see them hooking up on a couple of plays. J'ville got a defensive score to go up in the last one and got to play their type of game, still they allowed Tampa to close in the 2nd half last week and just hung on for the win there. New Orleans now looks like it can get them points up in a hurry once again, and the way they are clicking if they get out front early, this one could turn into a rout.
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N.O. 20 - JAX 17
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N.O. 41 - JAX 24 WINNER/No Cover
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Washington will try and get itself up off the canvas after being run off the field against New England last week. I know that there was all kinds of talk that New England may have ran up the score and what not, but really they were just on a different level. This week Washington will be back on level ground with the grounded Jets. The Jets have only won one game thus far this season, and things just seem to be getting worse for them. This week they start rookie QB Kellen Clemens at QB to try and reverse their fortunes. As for Washington I don't know about taking a team that had 50 scored on it the week before, normally that is a sure formula for an easy win for the opponent. In this here case though the opponents are the Jets.
This year we have seen that trend bucked already by the likes of Detroit and frankly when it comes to teams and the Patriots I think they deserve a pass. Washington will regroup and reassert it's defense against the anemic Jets offense who is more challenged to score points against much lesser defenses.
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WAS 37 - NYJ 17
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WAS 23 - NYJ 20 WINNER/No Cover
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Arizona comes back to work this week after a week off and heads out to Tampa, where the Bucs are looking to rebound from a second straight mistake filled game, that they dropped. The Cards have been the poster child for mistake filled games, and no one is better at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Bucs though in their history have also been pretty good at that and every now and then we get a jovial reminder. However even though it is November and they are in the friendly confines of the big Sombrero there in Tampa where they are 3-1. Even without the solid running game they had earlier in the season the Bucs well right their ship this week at the expense of the crumbling cards.
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TB 23 - AZ 16
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TAM 17 - AZ 10 WINNER
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How about those Browns. I was a little dubious of their chances of winning on the road last week, and despite falling behind early the battling browns bounced back and come back home, get this... with a winning record! Cleveland is really making some noise as a dark horse in the powerful AFC. Seattle is still flying high in the NFC west, but have had their problems this year. Playing on the road has been a problem for Seattle where they were shut out in Pittsburgh last time out leading to a 1-2 mark in road games. Cleveland has easily won it's last three straight home games and are only giving up a point and a half. Seattle has been struggling to get it's running game going, while Derek Anderson and Cleveland have been as hot as anyone so I look for them to put up some numbers at home again even against a defense as good as Seattle can be. Plus it's getting toward that time of year when Cleveland becomes a much much less hospitable place to play.
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CLE 34 - SEA 21
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CLE 33 - SEA 30 WINNER
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Now for the game of the year II. Remember a couple weeks ago when the unbeaten Patriots went into then unbeaten Dallas, and that was a game to "bring your popcorn to." So here we have the so-called SuperBowl 41 and a half. Featuring the unbeaten Colts against the unbeaten and seemingly unstoppable Patriots. This game does have all the makings of a playoff game, and unlike the Pats-Dallas game earlier, there is actually quite a bit at stake in this one. The winner will be in the driver’s seat for home field. Well as some of our long time fans around here know, I tend to avoid the "good games" and these so-called great games, I wouldn't bet on with YOUR money. But heck it's just a regular season game so I might as well put my two cents in. The Colts are the champs and until someone shows me that they can beat them, I would go with them. The Pats though are on a different level and if there is one painful lesson I have learned this year, don't bet against the teams from Boston.
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N.E. 37 - IND 31
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NE 24 - IND 20 WINNER/No Cover
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Oh man isn't this a match up to get excited over, the Raiders, who have been one of our favorites on here, against Houston who for many years was in that same role, but much to our dismay reverted back to that in recent weeks. Yet despite the penchant for both of these teams for disappointment, this one has the makings of a very exciting game. Houston was manhandled last week in San Diego, but I imagine just about anyone may have been. They still have a respectable defense, but then again so does Oakland, and for the time being Culpepper is still the quarterback, and while being opposed by the likes of Sage Rosenfels and the Houston Texans, in that regards I have to give the edge to the home standing Raiders.... oh man what is wrong with me?
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OAK 27 - HOU 24
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HOU 24 - OAK 17 LOSER
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Now despite the apparent discrepancies in the records these two foes here are going to be jacked up for this one. The Eagles who despite their slow start have rebounded and are looking to make a move back to .500 and what better way than to stick it to their old nemesis Dallas. T.O. and company won't find much hospitality in this return visit to Philly, and the Philly defense sure looks to be ready to dish it out. They have been holding opponents down to less than 17 points per game. Philly knows if it can win this game and knock the cowboys a step closer that they can still get back into the picture in the NFC East. The Eagles swept the cowboys last year and overall have beaten the Cowboys in 7 of the last 8 games up in Philly. The Cowboys though seem to have that lucky charm attached to them this year, and just dished out $67 million for Tony Romo and just thinking he will be out to prove he is worthy and be finding ways to exploit the Eagles defenses. Cowboys ride off into their showdown with N.Y. with another charmed escape.
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DAL 31 - PHI 24
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DAL 38 - PHI 17 WINNER
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The Monday Night match up features AFC North division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Baltimore comes into this one with a pretty sloppy track record for those who play the points going only 1-6 against the spread this year. Pitt on the other hand is 6-2 ATS this year, and have won 6 of the last 7 at home. Ahhh but that 7th game there, that was last year in December when Baltimore care into Pittsburgh and put a 31-7 beating on Pittsburgh. Including that there game Baltimore has won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Pittsburgh. This is a better Pittsburgh team, but can't ignore all that trend data. Pittsburgh boots their way by Baltimore.
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PIT 23 - BAL 20
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PIT 38 - BAL 7 WINNER/No Cover
Byes: Chicago, St. Louis, Miami, NY Giants
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