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The Colts fresh off their big Monday Night road victory in Jacksonville get to go to a rested Carolina Panthers den, and with the specter of an undefeated New England game coming up, it makes this the perfectly scary match up to kick off the Halloween edition of the picks. Could the look ahead curse in the home of the Cats be trouble? Carolina comes back to work after their bye week. Before the bye the Panthers may not have played all that impressively, and with fresh plucked off the scrap heap 40-something year old Vinny Testaverde stepping in and leading them now you might think this game would be a cinch. However Vinny is 1-0 as a starter with just three days of practice with this team, imagine having a whole week to prepare! Carolina is 4-2 on the year, and get this all 4 wins have come on the road and both losses were at home. However if we are trend surfing Carolina is a surprising 3-0 against Indianapolis. Silly right, considering they haven't met since 2003, remember that was when Payton Manning couldn't "win the big one", yeah and before that 1998, pretty sure Payton was playing SOUTH Carolina, or Georgia, or Florida back then - I think anyways. Regardless, it's just a trend and basically in a series like this one that is pretty meaningless. The trick will be if Carolina can somehow keep that trend going, but the treat will come for those who keep riding the Colts, now going back 12 straight games, to last season, the Colts just seem to keep on rolling along.
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IND 27 - CAR 17
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IND 31 - CAR 7 WINNER
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St. Louis is a team that just seems to get worse every time I see them play. I know how much worse can a 0-7 team play, well last weeks post-game conference one reporter asked embattled St. Louis coach Scott Linehan if he had watched some NCAA football game to get some ideas for plays... talk about fishing for anything to talk about. Cleveland however before their bye week has had no such issues. Sure at one point we may have all THOUGHT Cleveland was THAT bad after the first week of this season at Pittsburgh, but since Derek Anderson was inserted in as the starting Quarterback, Cleveland has gone 3-2 and is scoring points like it was playing pinball. Just where did this Derek Anderson come from? Now call me crazy but this could be a big trap game for a young team unaccustomed to success like Cleveland. No it's not impossible, especially when I see St. Louis getting points at home and the books are just getting hammered by people betting on Cleveland. St. Louis could be getting RB Stephen Jackson back for this one as well. Just remember this is the NFL where the improbable is very probable especially when everyone thinks it is a lock. This one looks pretty much like a lock to me, which with my record this year, is reason alone to make you worry.
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CLE 34 - STL 17
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CLE 27 - STL 20 WINNER
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The first NFL regular season game in London. I recall when this game came out, Miami fans were all up in arms about "losing" a home game. Well judging from the crowd at the last Miami home game, most of them were New England fans, and of course had the Giants come into the "Borough of Miami" with so many New Yorkers and their propensity to talk, and with the Giants lighting up teams as of late by an average of 20 points per game, this one could have been real ugly. Couple that with Miami's 0-7 mark, and I think now many Miami fans are actually thankful to have this one played in London instead of having to sit through another one of those kind of home games. Still this one has the makings of a big trap game for the Giants. Sure they come into this one having won 5 straight but if you look at the teams that they have played, the Jets, Philly, Atlanta, San Fran in that stretch, all are damaged teams - well not unlike Miami, however Miami has something that has always given the Giants fits, a mobile QB in the form of Cleo Lemon. While the Giants have been feasting off their defensive front and their ability to get after the QB and make things happen, all those other teams had no speed at QB. Lemon and a desperate Dolphin team, could be poised to give the Giants defense fits, and possibly expose the Giants suspect secondary. That is assuming the Dolphins can actually make some plays. I also like the match up of Jason Taylor of the Dolphins against converted Guard to Left Tackle David Diehl. Diehl has struggled against speed rushers and Taylor could be the fastest he has seen to date. I don't know if Miami can exploit that enough to come out on top, but with that 9.5 it's worth considering. The Giants should feel like the home team in this one, as we say there are no real die hards of either team over there, so likely the whole house will just cheer for whomever is winning. The Giants should be able to win some fans over to their cause, and then of course wind up winning the game, unless a Miami Miracle takes place across the pond. If that does happen look out, the Fish might apply for the league to officially move them over there, at least for the rest of this season.
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NYG 31 - MIA 23
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NYG 13 - MIA 10 WINNER
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This game is a tantalizing tale of two heart breaking teams. Both these teams have been right there in almost every one of their games, and usually one play winds up deciding the game. The thing that they have in common is that one play has been made by the opposition in both cases. Last week was a clear indication of that. Minnesota battling in Dallas, tied 14-14 lining up for the go ahead field goal, only to have it blocked and returned for a TD, the backbreaker in a tough defensive game. Then the Eagles, with time running down, slugging it out for four quarters with Chicago. Clinging to a paper thin 4 point lead with only a few ticks left on the clock, only to give up a TD in waning moments snatching defeat from the brink of victory. That has been the season in a nutshell for these two teams. So when they meet this weekend in Minnesota you have to have some pity upon these two poor teams who can't seem to catch a break. With a spot of luck they could both be 4-2 instead of 2-4, to their credit they are still scrapping and fighting, and eventually like this week ONE of these two will have to catch a break. Figure this will be a tough hard hitting defensive game, and in the end typical of these two teams season, you have to figure one freak play will decide the outcome.
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MIN 2 - PHI 0
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PHI 23 - MIN 16 LOSER
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Cincinnati finally put a stop to their 5 game losing skid last week when they hosted the Jets, although it took 38 points and a pretty darn big comeback to do it. Pittsburgh was bucked out of Denver by an old kicker who still has some life in his leg. So now these two teams will tangle in the jungle along the Ohio river. Pittsburgh ran into a buzz saw in Denver a team with a proven winner in Mike Shannahan at the helm, in a place where they rarely lose, let alone get spotted any points, then given a week off to surgically study and dissect the Steelers offense. Likely what they saw is that if you can stop the Pittsburgh running game force them to throw, and pressure QB Ben Rothlisberger Pittsburgh can be beaten, especially if you can put some points on the board yourself. The problem for Cincinnati is that they can't really pressure nor contain anyone on defense. I mean they let the Jiminy Cricket Jersey Jets run up 31 on them and made Chad Pennington, and the Jets look like a scoring machine. Sure Cincy eventually caught up and outgunned them, but this week that is like bringing a knife to a gun fight. Pittsburgh will run, and then run, and then run some more Cincy will be helpless on defense while their offense sits on the sidelines watching them grind out about 6, 7 yards a play. Slowly and methodically Pittsburgh will take time off the clock as they creep and creep down the field. The only shot for Cincy is if Pittsburgh peters out and settles for field goals instead of punching it in, then Carson Palmer can respond with TDs. That is how they can do it, but trying to do something and actually getting it done are two totally different things, and with that Cincy defense, try is about as close as they will get.
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PIT 37 - CIN 24
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PIT 24 - CIN 13 WINNER
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The Lions staved off a tough defensive opponent and actually won a game where the scoring didn't resemble some type of video game. The Lions persevered last week against a tough defensive foe, and made some breaks of their own on defense, and say what you will the Lions are 4-2 and square in the middle of the hunt in the NFC. Not that the Bears need much motivation to get riled up at the Lions, but they find themselves looking up in the standings to Detroit and can look squarely back to the 37-27 loss in Detroit three weeks ago as to why. Yet even with them losing three of the four previous to last week, the Bears are within arms length of the Lions, and winning this game could help to get the Bears even with the Lions in wins. Both of Detroit’s losses have come on the road, and by a combined 90-24 score. Likewise last two trips to the windy City Detroit have been outscored 72-13. Chicago has responded to Brian Griese at QB and been scoring more than twice what they were with Rex Grossman at the controls, plus hanging in there like he did last week, and bailing out Chicago with a clutch TD pass late in the game to pull out a big road victory in Philly will carry lots of weight in the Chicago locker room. Greise earned the respect of his teammates and the Bears are rallying behind their QB, they ride the momentum from last week at home and come up with some big defensive plays this week to rattle the Lions, and close out October back in the hunt in NFC North.
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CHI 26 - DET 13
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DET 16 - CHI 7 LOSER
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What was all that talk of Tennessee being all about Vince Young? Well that was Kerry Collins out there last week, and in a feat I don't think possible, Collins didn't even throw a single TD pass yet his team managed 38 points in a big road win in Houston. Houston had been playing some pretty solid defense up to that point, and for Collins to do that to them. Tennessee could have it's main man Vince Young back once again in this one, and even better to get the Raiders at home this week. Now I know this Raiders team is better than years past, and so on, and so forth, but the Raiders have been tailing off of late dropping their second straight game, and yeah they only allowed one TD, but they also only managed to score one. Tennessee might not have a stone wall for a defense but if they get Vince Young back, this week, they might not need that much more defense to keep that Titan machine rolling along in the South. For Oakland it will be one step closer to the debut of JaMarcus Russell. If this one gets as out of hand as the books figure with about an 8 point spot, it might be JaMarcus time in Tennessee this week.
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TEN 31 - OAK 21
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TEN 13 - OAK 9 WINNER/No Cover
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I really have to take my hat off to Dick Jauron and the Buffalo Bills. After losing the way they did before their bye week to Dallas, to get that team back and focused enough to come back and beat a solid Baltimore team like they did was no small feat. Now the Bills will need to take some of that mojo on the road with them. The Jets, unlike Buffalo, can't seem to pull out of that downward spiral this season has turned into. Even when they can get out front, or out front big like last week, their defense steps up and out-awful their woeful offense. The Jets have been on a 4 game losing skid since dropping a game to Buffalo 17-14 up in Buffalo a few weeks ago. Buffalo comes into this one on a high after breaking through with a big win last week. The Jets meanwhile are mired in controversy and even though QB Chad Pennington was sharp last week, and managed to lead the Jets to 31 points, they allowed 38 to Cincy. The good thing for New York is Buffalo does not have quite the offense Cincy has, yet the Bills are scrappy bunch now, and with a 6-2 ATS mark against the Jets there is a good feeling in Buffalo that they can come down to Jersey and stomp all over the Jets. The Bills are sporting a nice 4-2 mark on the season when you play the point spread, and getting another healthy spot in this one. There won't be too many surprises in this one, except maybe that anyone would actually pick the Jets.
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NYJ 22 - BUF 20
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BUF 13 - NYJ 3 COVER
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Tampa heads back home after an uncharacteristically mistake filled game up in Detroit. Jacksonville comes into this one after their big showdown for AFC South supremacy now in third place in the division and needing a win just to stay in the hunt. Tampa is a perfect 3-0 at home in Tampa, and will look to add to that string, against a very similar team in Jacksonville. However watching Jacksonville’s offense after David Garrard went down last week was painful. Garrard could be out again this week, and his replacement Quinn Gray was highly ineffective. They will need to rely on the running game to do anything, and if they fall behind like they did at home to Indy last week, the Jags just might not be able to come back in this one. Jacksonville can only really run the ball, and with Maurice Jones-Drew possibly out as well, I just don't know how they will be able to move the ball against Tampa's defense. With an inexperienced QB like Gray and with no threat of the deep ball, or the passing game, Tampa can fill up the box, and bottle up that Jacksonville running game. Jacksonville won't really be affected by the heat in Tampa either, so they probably won't wear down, but if they can't get any points on the board, the wily Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden's Bucs will find some ways to score even if they can't run the ball effectively and the Bucs will add to that home mark.
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TAM 14 - JAC 9
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JAC 24 - TAM 23 LOSER
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Probably the worst thing that could have happened to Houston was for me to get all caught up in how good their young defense was, and to pick them to win. First they lost stud WR Andre Johnson, then last week they lost QB Matt Shaub. Sage Rosenfels came off the bench to lead an improbable 4th qtr rally, but then that young defense faltered and now the Texans once again find themselves in the familiar role of being under sub .500 at 3-4. In that division with unbeaten Indianapolis, and the mighty Jags and Titans, there is not much more room for error. San Diego however is playing this game under extenuating circumstances as fires engulf Southern California and many of the players for San Diego could be distracted this week by what is going on at home when preparing to play a football game. However it could turn out to be a rallying point for the Chargers, as if they weren't rolling along before this. How distracted they are playing in Arizona has to be a factor. As good as Houston's defense had been playing, given this game gets played as scheduled even possibly in Mexico, I don't think they would stand much of chance in this one at all. Of course the way it's been going this year that alone could be Houston's best chance to pull the upset.
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SD 31 - HOU 20
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SD 35 - HOU 10 WINNER
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New Orleans did get a little wind in it's sails last week, coming back to earn their second win of the season. However they did struggle a bit, and trailed most of last week, in the end they didn't manage enough to cover the spread. Always a bad sign, or a sign that a team isn't quite as good as everyone might think they are. San Fran once again was victimized by its offense. While their defense played admirably last week in containing the Giant offense, they got no help from the offense who turned the ball over and made all kinds of mistakes giving the Giants plenty of extra chances. Dilfer was clearly not the answer this week, as he cost the Niners as many points as he produced. The Niners after starting the season with two straight wins, have now dropped the last 4 straight, regardless of who takes the snaps. They will need to get back to protecting the ball and helping their defense out if they want to get back to winning. This week against a struggling New Orleans team that can't really run the ball up between the tackles anymore San Fran has a very good chance to reverse their recent fortunes. They need to protect the ball though, because if Dilfer or Smith make mistakes this week, and give Drew Brees a short field, won't matter how good their defense is, Brees and the Saints will make them pay.
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NO 23 - SF 14
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NO 31 - SF 10 WINNER
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A prime time treat, as the New England Juggernaut hosts the upstart Skins. I mean there is no doubt at this stage that New England is legit, however there is that specter of Indianapolis looming next week for New England. There could be a chance that the Pats might be peeking ahead a little bit, and perhaps not really focusing on a very talented group from Washington that they will be hosting on Sunday Night. I mean Washington isn't exactly chopped liver, they are 4-2 and have a solid defense that can get after it, and they can run the ball a bit, best way to keep Brady and Moss on the sidelines up there is to pound the ball and have long sustained drives, and maybe New England will be distracted a little bit. Yeah I know fat chance, but come on, how good is New England that the only real chance a pretty good team like Washington has is if the Pats are looking ahead. What does that tell you about New England. Upsets happen and with 14.5 points you do have quite a cushion, but also keep in mind New England was up 42-7 at the half last week, before they put it on cruise control, I wonder what this team is capable of if they actually didn't let up!
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NE 34 - WAS 17
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NE 52 - WAS 7 WINNER
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One last October football game, and if this Halloween week isn't enough to really scare you, here come the dazzling yellow clad Packers against the equally outrageous orange of Denver... and wouldn't it be a treat for them to come out in their alt. orange jerseys, something to really light up your high definition screen. Speaking of high def, the Broncos are back in Mile high where they rebounded famously and snapped an 0-9 ATS at home streak last week again in prime time against the favored Steelers. The Packers have been at the other end of that spectrum, covering in 6 of their last 7 games, and a very impressive 6-0 ATS streak on the road. Most of that attributed to the rejuvinated Brett Favre who has led the Packer resurgence. While Jay Cutler and the Broncos are tough at home the record shows when laying points like this week they aren't always the solid bet you would think.
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GB 23 - DEN 21
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GB 19 - DEN 13 WINNER
Bye: