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A Big Time Southern Smack down as the Texans host the upstart Tennessee Titans. The Titans battled Tampa down to the wire last week, and were nipped by a last second field goal. The first road loss in the 6 road games for the Titans. A bigger loss though might be QB Vince Young. Young whose emergence at QB fueled the Titans to the 5 straight road wins, but he could be out for this game with an injury. Houston heads back home who despite getting blown out by Jacksonville last week actually have been a pretty respectable team this season. Houston actually boasts a 4-1 record in the last 5 home games although straight up have dropped 4 of the last 5 meetings with Tennessee. Like I said before that was the old Texans, this is a new era in Houston, and the Tennessee QB situation is also a new dynamic to figure in. These two rivals know each other very well, regardless of the Young situation this is shaping up to be another knock down drag out dogfight, and this time the dog is at home.
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HOU 19 - TEN 17
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TEN 38 - HOU 36 LOSER
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The Bills return to action after that Monday Night meltdown against Dallas last time out. Should have known Buffalo would have been a game home dog, while they are only 1-2 at home this year, both losses were by only 1 point and more importantly as far as we are concerned Buffalo have covered 7 of the last 8 games at home. Baltimore seems to have taken flight behind Kyle Boller, the seasoned and more mature Kyle Boller, has led Baltimore to a 4-2 mark with a couple wins now for Boller coming out of the bullpen. The Ravens got plenty of Willis McGahee last week powering them to victory, McGahee returns to Buffalo with a chance to stick it to his old team so you know he will be amped up for this one. Buffalo will be ready for him this week, as much as they can anyways. Depleted and downtrodden Buffalo will be out to keep their old mate in check this week, if they play defense like they did against Dallas last Monday they should have a shot. Tough to get a read on Buffalo and all in this game as the hang-over effect from a heartbreaker like Monday Night can certainly impact a teams next time out. Yet that 3.5 points against a low scoring team like Baltimore in a desperation game could be just thing to get it going for Buffalo.
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BAL 16 - BUF 14
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BUF 19 - BAL 14 COVER
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The Vikes bring that battering defense down to big D, and will be pulling that wagon on the legs of Adrian Peterson. Peterson single handedly carried the Vikes to victory last week in Chicago, however that was the exception to the rule as Minnesota has only covered in two of the last 8 road games. Dallas is now mired in as much of a slump as a 5-1 team can be in losing last week, and failing to cover the time before that. Around here we can call that a trend, first time this year Dallas has put out any sort of negative trend information, this week should see a stop to that. The Vikes are going to be a tough out, but they will need to get help from more than just Peterson if they want to pull the upset in Dallas. Dallas has a lot of horses in the corral to run at you, and they will be all riled up after getting beat like that at home, while Minny has only the one Sooner who will be outgunned in trying to stop the Cowboy stampede.
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DAL 31 - MIN 19
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DAL 24 - MIN 14 WINNER
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The Bucs head up North to tangle with the rested Lions of Detroit who spent last week licking their wounds. The Lions were shredded before the bye in Washington, yet despite that loss, and getting a 50 dropped on them a few weeks back in Philly, Detroit is still sitting pretty at 3-2. Tampa pulled off a tough hard earned defensive win, but that was at home at the big Sombrero where they have a distinct advantage. Tampa is a much less formidable 2-10 in its last dozen road games. In Detroit however Tampa has won 4 of the last 6 games, and outright beat Detroit in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Now if you are laying points you might want to know that Detroit has covered against Tampa in all of the last 5 meetings, but most of that was as a big underdog, and they haven't met since 2005. So throw all that out there then ask yourself do you really want to bet on the Lions and have to lay points?
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TAM 21 - DET 20
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DET 23 - TAM 16 LOSER
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The house of Cards crumbled last week, as the cruising Cats went out west and crushed the Cards. As my cat reminded me twice this weekend, frequently when cats and birds meet, the remains are usually splatter, guts, and feathers, and in the end the Cats get to go home happy. As Washington returns home from a battle in Green Bay a little battered and beaten themselves, they host the banged up Birds who were mauled and now onto the third string QB. Arizona has all the makings of a team showing signs of being on the verge of bigger and better losses. One of my favorite formulas for success. That Washington Defense will rise up and contain the Cards, allowing that running game to get it going and eventually grind down what is left of the Birds defenses. More guts, splatter and rankled feathers.
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WAS 24 - AZ 10
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WAS 21 - AZ 19 WINNER/No Cover
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The Niners return from a week off, although it will bear watching to see if the Niners could shake off a heartbreaking loss of their own before the bye. The Niners rely on solid defense and running the ball. That defense will really have to turn it up a notch to contain the Gotham City Grandes as they come on having won their last 4 games. Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress is as lethal a combination as any in the league, and the Giants offense has managed to score over 30 points in back to back games. Looks to me like New York is really finding it's stride, mix in a defensive unit that has been terrorizing QB's over the last several weeks, and you have a really solid football team who has been flying under the radar thanks to their 0-2 start. San Fran is going to have to find some offense real quickly if they will have any shot in this one, and honestly I don't think that they can do it. So when games look this easy, what is that I always do... that's right fade my own pick.
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NYG 21 - SF 13
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NYG 33 - SF 16 WINNER/No Cover
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Atlanta has been playing very respectably up until the blowout on Monday night. Not bad considering that they had their two offensive tackles making their first ever NFL start. Even so they were up 10-7 after the first quarter, and if not for a plethora of drops by Falcon QB Joey Harrington’s receivers, that might have been a closer game than you would think. Previous to that Monday Nighter the battered Falcons had been 1-4 but lost all 4 of those games by less than 7 points. New Orleans finally pulled the veil off their bride of the new season and responded to the best type of therapy I can think of, which was for me to give up on them and pick against them. They promptly managed their best effort of the season Sunday night winning in Seattle, looking more like the New Orleans team that was in the conference Championship game last season. I think that New Orleans got it's legs and confidence back last week and find the faltering Falcons giving them a shot to keep the procession moving along.
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NO 27 - ATL 17
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NO 22 - ATL 16 WINNER/No Cover
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Now here is a game everyone should be looking forward to. The battle of the perfect teams. New England the perfect 6-0 comes down to S. Florida to visit the equally perfect 0-6 Dolphins. The NFL Edge was given FREE tickets to this one, and honestly it's not worth the trip, does anyone feel that Miami even has a shot in this one this week. When the only realistic argument that someone can make for taking Miami is that New England will hit South Beach on Saturday night and be all hung over and stuff on Sunday. Come on how realistic is that? I mean I know Saban's Dolphins could muster up a little something extra for the Chowdaheads. One thing is for certain in Miami, these are not Saban's Dolphins anymore.
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NE 41 - MIA 20
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NE 49 - MIA 28 WINNER
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With the Chiefs win last week, suddenly the team everyone said was dead and buried finds itself atop the AFC West this week. Even weirder, is that last week you could say the same thing about Oakland. As it is the Raiders find themselves just one game out of first, and that of course makes this a big game in the division between these old AFL rivals. Despite all the fantasy stats compiled by San Diego last week, the Raiders were actually not blown out that badly, at least as bad as the final margin would indicate. At one point late in the game the Raiders were only a play away from sole possession of first place. That may be all well and good however at some point the fantasy is going to come to an end and the reality for the Raiders will come crashing through. This week reality comes in nice bright shade of Red.
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KC 27 - OAK 23
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KC 12 - OAK 10 WINNER
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Just as some teams have surprised folks this year, like Kansas an Oakland both of these two former playoff teams have bitterly disappointed this season. They have combined for only two wins between them. The good news here is that one of these two teams will actually come out of this one with a win. Too bad the Jets seem completely incompetent as this is one game that they could actually win. Cincys defense is depleted, not that they could stop anyone before, but the Jets ground game should be able to run for some big yards on this LB crew in Cincy. The Jets have been able to do that most of the year, but when it comes to punching it in is when they are punchless. However the Jets defense has been just as adept at giving up big scores as their offense is at squandering them and the one thing Cincy still has going for it, is Carson Palmer. He should be able light up New York’s secondary this week finally giving Cincy fans and Chad Johnson a little something to dance about.
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CIN 34 - NYJ 24
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CIN 38 - NYJ 31 WINNER
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Neither of these two teams may have a winning record, but don't tell either of these two that they aren't in the race. Philly got it going last week, and won a tough low scoring defensive game. Chicago meanwhile lost in a thrilling 34-31 game. While that isn't exactly what we would have expected from these two teams, then again what really has gone as we expected this season? The Bears allowing 34 points to an offensively challenged team like Minnesota at home, bodes well for Philly who really didn't require much defense to slow the grounded Jets. Chicago is probably not much better offensively than New York, and if that defense pulls a repeat performance in slowing Brian Westbrook like they did in slowing Adrian Peterson, Philly will flap it's way back to up to .500.
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PHI 27 - CHI 16
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CHI 19 - PHI 16 LOSER
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At one point in the recent past this would have been a great match up. However in recent times St. Louis has been nothing short of terrible, and as we saw last Sunday Night, Seattle sucks just about as much. That should make this a really fun game... to skip. A sucking contest between a very mediocre Seattle team which appeared to be heartless allowing the Saints to get their first win easily in Seattle last week, going against a St. Louis team looking to break through in the win column with it's first win of this season. Despite sucking wind harder than one of those jet engines that they make up there, I just can't see Seattle dropping two straight at home to previously winless teams. Of course if they play anything like they did Sunday night that won't be difficult. It's not like St. Louis isn't playing with heart though, they just don't have the talent to do what their heart tells them to. That is the only reason why I would get on a stinker like Seattle one more time, the lesser of two suckers.
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SEA 20 - STL 7
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SEA 33 - STL 6 WINNER
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The Big Sunday night game, between a couple of AFC powers. Pittsburgh has looked the part of the AFC powerhouse thus far, having won and covered in 5 of the last 6 games. Denver started the year strong with a couple of wins, but they have since dropped three in a row. Including a massive lopsided home shellacking to San Diego last time out. Once upon a time it was sheer foolery to give Denver points at home. This version of the Broncos though has gone 0-5 ATS this year. Still this is a big game and a chance to get the season back on track for them. In the Mile High City I actually give them a fighting chance to be able to rebound like that. However from what I have seen from both of these two teams recently, Denver pretty well stinks 0-5 ATS; Pittsburgh at 5-1 ATS, I won't waste my money to confirm what should be pretty obvious.
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PIT 27 - DEN 17
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DEN 31 - PIT 28 LOSER
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Now for our final pick of week 7. Getting back somewhat to normalcy this one is a big game as it could lead to our first positive week in a little while. Since we're talking about getting back to our winning ways we have two teams here that have been pretty good to us all year. Indy has been very respectable for a defending champion 5-0 on the year and a very respectable 4-1 ATS. Jacksonville has been flying a bit under the radar here though with a very very respectable 4-1 mark themselves having won 4 straight since the opening day upset and posting a 3-1 ATS mark along the way. This one will be a big test for Jacksonville and a big repect game for them if they want to be taken as serious contenders. QB David Garrard has been solid for the Jags and protecting the ball has been his forte, that and just mixing it up enough to let the Jags do what they really want to do and that is run the ball. They split the series with Indy last year, however when figuring in the point spread Jacksonville has covered in 4 of the last 5 meetings. That tells me that they won't get blown out. That defense of theirs is for real and has contained Payton Manning in the past, that and the 3.5 points in a big coming out party in Jacksonville will help the NFL edge get some respect back.
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Jac 23 - IND 21
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IND 29 - JAC 7 LOSER
Bye: Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego, Carolina