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The Vikes shake off the week off and look to get back on the winning side after dropping the last three. Defense and keeping the score down will be key for the Vikings who have been averaging a mere 11 points per game over that span. The Bears are looking to build off that big road win in Green Bay. This is a good spot for them to get healthy, while the Vikes are stout against the run, they are allowing close to 300 yards a game in the air. Last year Rex Grossman was able to exploit that and have some of his best days passing against Minnesota. So this one will depend on what you think of Brian Griese. If you buy into that he is an upgrade over Rex then Chicago can be a solid play. The Bears have dominated winning 4 of the last meetings, and 5 straight at home against Minnesota. Despite only covering in one of the last 7 home games Chicago looks to an old nemesis to buck that trend, and last week should serve as a reminder that October is the month for da Bears.
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CHI 27 - MIN 13
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MIN 34 - CHI 31 LOSER
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Miami came awful close to breaking on through with their first win last week. That despite losing QB Trent Green in that game, Cleo Lemon stepped in and really played pretty decently for what essentially is a rookie. Miami managed to cover which wont make Phish fans happy, but lots of betters were feeling pretty good. I personally take that as an omen. Cleveland wasn't quite as fortunate and there were an awful lot of folks who bought into that big 16 point line last week, that snapped a string of 3 straight covers for Cleveland, none of that as a favorite though. Miami has shown that while being an 0-5 team is still coming out swinging on the road last week and really fought down to a final 57 yard FG that decided it last week at the buzzer. Does Miami have enough to shake that off and the 0-5 and losing the starting QB and still get that elusive first win in Cleveland. Tough to play Cleveland as a favorite and have to lay points, when the Phish shown they can get the cover on the road, and are a desperate team. Squeeze that Lemon, and let that Juice run right down your leg.
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CLE 30 - MIA 27
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CLE 41 - MIA 31 Winner/No Cover
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Well what about Washington now? They took care of business last week at home throttling once impressive Detroit, and at 3-1 reasserting their place as a legit playoff contender this season. Was that really me, Mr. Trend player, might say momentum chaser, picking against Washington who is 21-0 all time vs. Detroit in Washington. Green Bay was tagged for its first loss Sunday night in a mistake filled contest in Green Bay. The Packers could have easily blown the Bears out early in that game, but turnovers kept the Bears in the game, and eventually gave them the chance to win. Now two one loss teams go at it in a big time NFC game with postseason overtones. Getting back on that trend wagon, last week was the first time any opponent covered in Green Bay going back to the middle of last year. The Skins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Green Bay, including 0-2 in the last two visits to Lambeau getting blown out by a combined 58 points. Not that I buy all that trend stuff now do I, just pointing it out. The Packers are looking to avoid dropping the second straight home game and avoid starting any sort of new home trends.
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GB 21 - WAS 16
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GB 17 - WAS 14 Winner
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Cincinnati comes back from a bye and heads out to Kansas City. Kansas City is trying to bounce back from a rare home loss to Jacksonville that despite the 17-7 final score wasn't even that close. Kansas City will also try to avoid dropping two in a row at home, although over the last 3 years or so Cincy has been one of the best road teams to bet on. I look for Cincy to get back in that road groove here offensively, although the banged up LBs on the Bengals should offer lots of opportunity for Kansas City to get some of its offense on track. I look for a wild west type of shoot out in Kansas City this week, and somehow the Chiefs will avoid dropping their second straight home game.
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KC 28 - CIN 27
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KC 27 - CIN 20 WINNER
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A tough one here as for the second straight week we have a southern shootout. AFC South vs. NFC South. Last week the AFC South proved better as the Bucs were bested by Indy, and Tennessee got by a game Atlanta club. Tampa tries to reverse that trend this week in Raymond James Stadium where they have gone 2-0 in the last two games there. Tennessee however is a lively underdog, getting the points in this one, despite having the heavy action on them in this game. Good reason for that though as Tennessee has gone 5-0 in as many road games going back to last year. They have also gone 9-2 in the last 11 games, so it's hard to knock a record like that, especially when you are getting an extra FG.
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TAM 17 - TEN 16
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TAM 13 - TEN 10 Winner/No Cover
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St. Louis got a decent game from backup QB Gus Ferrotte and was able to mount a respectable game at home last week vs. Arizona, although they still lost. Baltimore went way out west to San Francisco and narrowly escaped with a two point win. They are going to need to find more offense this week, especially as they are installed as a 10 point home favorite. 0-5 ATS this year despite winning 7 of the last 8 at home, what’s that tell you. However that defensive front against the leaky St. Louis offensive line is the match up that will ultimately pay dividends for Baltimore. As has been the theme all year with this bunch, they should win this game, but are you really willing to lay 10.5 points on a team that has been averaging only 17 points per game.
I mean should St. Louis blunder its way to just one score, It could take Baltimore two games to score enough points to cover that.
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BAL 17 - STL 7
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BAL 22 - STL 3 Winner/No Cover
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Houston ended it's 2 game losing streak, holding off Miami at home, even though they didn't cover the 6 point spot. That makes Houston 0-3 ATS in as many games. Jacksonville can play some defense now barely missing a shut out on the road in Kansas City last week, they held the Chiefs to only 10 rushing yards, the lowest total rushing yards in the history of the Chiefs. They get a chance to get a leg up on a division rival here at home. Though Houston really matched up well with Jacksonville sweeping them away last year, and have posted a 5-1 ATS mark against the Jags. However that was then and since then that 0-3 ATS mark is an awful telling indicator of how they have been playing lately. Sure J-ville is 0-2 ATS in it's last couple home games, definitely cause for concern, but they have now covered the last two straight, and in the NFL your only as good as your last game, so going off that Jacksonville looks to be the better team going into this one. Still there is a track record of that Texan cover to watch for.
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JAC 20 - HOU 10
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JAC 37 - HOU 17 WINNER
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Philly comes back from a bye week where they got a chance to regroup from the 12 sacks they gave up their last time out. They have a great chance this week against the meadowlands other tenant who has not really looked good all year, even in their lone victory. The heat is really on Mangini in New York, and they have all kinds of controversy around benching QB Chad Pennington. That will be tough to play through. The Eagles should have Brian Westbrook back, which should manage to keep the Jets off balance defensively, and keep the Jets from teeing off on Donovan McNabb then they should be able to soar higher than the Jets who look like they are in a tailspin that they might not recover from.
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PHI 31 - NYJ 17
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PHI 16 - NYJ 9 WINNER
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Carolina passed a gut check last week and outlasted New Orleans on the road. It was a big game for Carolina who had previously not looked all that impressive. They weren't really impressive on offense at all but still managed to move the chains when they had to in order to get the Win. Arizona also looked equally impressive with it's big road win in St. Louis. Losing Matt Leinart won't be that big a factor as Kurt Warner stepped in and managed to get the Cards their 2nd straight win. They come home with a ton of confidence and a solid defense playing against a team struggling to get points on the board. Still Carolina is a very impressive 3-0 on the road this year, so even while struggling to score they are not phased by playing on the road. Tough call to lay the points with Arizona as a highly unreliable favorite. It should be a FG game either way - so depending on what points you’re getting, it may be worth a play.
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AZ 20 - CAR 17
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CAR 25 - AZ 10 LOSER
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Seems there are at least two games every week this season, that as I am watching on Sundays I am wondering, just what was I thinking. San Diego last week was one of them. Now that was the Chargers team we were all expecting pretty much all season. Oakland however I can admit, I don't know what to expect from anymore. I mean did anyone expect that the Raiders would be at 2-2 and atop the AFC West? Right me neither, and I am sure the recharged San Diego team probably doesn’t care for looking up at Oakland in the standings. So while I would expect that the Chargers come out and do again what they have managed to do to the Raiders in the last 7 of the previous 8 meetings and that is pound the "excellence" right out of them. Funny thing happened last meeting in San Diego though Oakland covered, and funny enough Oakland has now managed to cover in 4 of its last 6 road games including that one in San Diego. Culpepper will find the going against this defense a little tougher than his last time out. San Diego can be explosive when they have it going and this looks like a ripe candidate for another one of those types of games.
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SD 34 - OAK 21
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SD 28 - OAK 14 WINNER
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Now we get to the game of the year thus far. The undefeated Pats of New England against the undefeated Cowboys of Dallas. How did you all like Belicheck going for it in the final seconds of the game last week on 4th and goal with a 10 point lead, and having Brady throwing no less? If I didn't know better I would swear he was out to cover a 16 point spread, God bless his soul! At least it sure looked like it from where I was sitting. Dallas meanwhile narrowly escaped while playing sloppy football up in Buffalo. Yet the Cowboys still managed to find a way to win the game and set up a big time battle of the unbeatens in Big D. Someone will have to get stuck with their first loss right here, and the books are giving Dallas 3 and a hook! I know my Boston friends will tell me all about how I never learn, but yo this is Dallas we're talkin about here, and this is a much bigger game than for the confident Pats. It's just another road game for them, no REAL bearing on their season, they should easily win the AFC East anyway. Now watch that I said that Dallas will be up in the final seconds, late and Belicheck winds up faking a FG and scoring a late TD to not just win but to cover again and foil ME. Because I am going big on big D in this one, and taking that FG+. Proving to all those folks up in New England that "ya nevah leahn ya chowdahead". Yup Cowboys 'n the points!
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DAL 27 - NE 24
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NE 48 - DAL 27 LOSER
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Well the good news for Saints fans should be that after last week, I have now officially given up on them! I don't know what got into them last year, perhaps they were possessed from some ghosts who escaped the French Quarter due to some of that voodoo magic. This year’s version looks more like what we have come to expect from the teams from New Orleans. Seattle wasn't expected to do too much on the road in Pittsburgh last week, and played up to form. They did get shut out though, and that is never a very good indicator if you intend to bet on a team. They should fare much better this week in their noisy home where they have won 18 of 21 games there, with the mistake prone Saints coming in. The Hawks will look to get it back in gear this week as they help the Saints season long spiral to continue to unravel in yet weirder and more unusual ways.
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SEA 21 - N.O. 10
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N.O. 28 - SEA 17 LOSER
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Giants have battled back to respectability and are 3-2 on this season, and they do look to be improving every week. The Falcons are still playing with lots of heart, but are just making way too many mistakes. Such as last week, the benching of QB Joey Harrington, some folks might consider that a mistake. However generally the prime time Monday night games have been interesting, who woulda thunk Buffalo would do what they did last week. I know I got burned with Cincy and 7.5 at home a couple weeks ago, but that was the Patriots. Them prime time home dogs can be tough. Atlanta has given the G-men fits as a dog, and has fared better against NY when Vick is not playing than when he does. Joey Harrington as a Lion had a career day against the Giants secondary, and if he gets a shot in this one he will step up with a big game and lead Atlanta in a shocking upset in front of all their friends on Monday Night.
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ATL 20 - NYG 14
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NYG 31 - ATL 10 LOSER
Bye: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco