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First up this week, the "don't that figure" game. Sure don't that figure that once we start singing the praises of the Houston Texans and actually go and pick them, as a road favorite no less... a team that was like 10% in road games! Then don't that figure, we went and spouted off about how Miami would get it's first win, and Culpepper and the Raiders did cover, but Miami was only in the game while the score was like 0-0. Things aren't getting any easier this week going into Houston, but simply mathematically speaking EVERY team in the NFL will win some games, at 0-4 isn't Miami about due. Houston may be an IMPROVING team, but they are still a young team, and Miami is a desperate team. But this isn't just any game, this is the don't that figure game, and even though we were beaten up taking Houston last week... don't that figure, here we go having to taking Houston and laying points once again. Sorry Fish fans, but right now, yes your team IS that bad!
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HOU 27 - MIA 17
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HOU 22 - MIA 19 WINNER/No Cover
...now don't that figure!
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The upstart Titans, get back to work after a week off against the now resurgent Falcons who actually won one last week. Joey Harrington has settled in at the QB position and has been one of the hottest passers in the league the past couple weeks. Joey Harrington. Still all that and a buck might get you a cup of Coffee. I mean Joey Harrington... The Titans at home are feeling like no matter what the score is No. 10 there can get it done. That is enough for me this week, and Joey Harrington.
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TEN 28 - ATL 16
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TEN 20 - ATL 13 WINNER/No Cover
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Wow, Kansas City was a huge surprise winner on the road in San Diego last week. A game I wouldn't have bet on them to win even were I to have been told in advance what the result would be. Jacksonville comes in after an off week that they went into with an awful lot of confidence, after toppling Denver up in Mile High. Yet the Jags aren't exactly playing lights out football lately, as their 1-5 ATS mark in the last 6 games can attest to. Still they are holding opponents to a league low 11 points per game. Good solid defense, and a low scoring offense and many a road favorite have met their match in Kansas City. They get that place rocking out there and things happen, balls come popping loose, field goals are missed, fumbles returned for touchdowns. Laying points in Kansas City, especially after such an impressive showing on the road in San Diego, is probably not the wisest investment one could make, even with a good defensive team who can win on the road like Jacksonville.
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JAC 21 - KC 20
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JAC 17 - KC 7 WINNER/No Cover
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The Battle for Gotham city. Two teams whom two weeks ago seemed at opposite end of the spectrum. Yet the Giants now sport a 2 game win streak, and set an NFL single game record for sacks last week. Yes the same defense who couldn't make a single stop the first two weeks has given up only 3 points in the last 6 quarters. The Jets looked to get things on track with an impressive win over Miami, but as I warned you last week, they didn't close the door in that one, and had the makings of a team who did get beat by Buffalo. (I changed that pick last week right at the last minute when I found out Losman was out, and let the injury influence my pick... shame on ME!) In a logical world where things make sense the Giants should win this game, BUT hey, it's New York, eh Fughetabout it...
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NY 20 - NY 17
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NYG 35 - NYJ 24 WINNER/No Cover
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Now this game is a tale of disappointments. Both these teams had much higher aspirations and instead find themselves both chasing Tampa in the NFC south. Relatively speaking that is as Carolina comes in at a mildly respectable 2-2. Mildly that is because the last three games weren't very impressive on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina just looked like an 0-4 team Sunday, watching how ineffective David Carr looked. Just get the ball to Steve Smith man. Carolina has won (and covered) in the last 5 trips to the Big Easy. And while New Orleans don't look to have that same magic they had last year, coming back off a week off you have got to think that they will be better prepared for this game with a divisional rival who may be slumping a bit. This could be the week that the New Orleans offense finally gets a little something going.
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N.O. 24 - CAR 10
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CAR 16 - NO 13 LOSER
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A match up with two teams who seem to be on different paths. The Cardnals are clearly a team on the rise covering in their last three games including a huge home upset over the previously unbeaten Steelers. The Rams once the fearsome offensive machine who dominated the west, are still searching for their first win. They weren't even close last week in Dallas, getting resoundly routed, and unless they can shore up that offensive line, and magically produce any kind of offense, the once greatest show on turf will be the greatest disappointment in St. Louis since the old St. Louis team up and moved to... Arizona.
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AZ 16 - STL 10
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AZ 34 - STL 31 WINNER/No Cover
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Every time I watch New England blow someone out this season all I can think of is how stupid am I to even doubt them... Hey now someone slow down the Browns. Not only have the Browns turned it around this year, they actually have been playing some very inspired football. You wonder what they saw in Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye in the offseason that they started Frye over Anderson. At any rate there is no controversy in New England, Brady, Moss, and company are clearly among the class of the league. If Cleveland can pull off this upset, then the folks on the shores of Lake Erie can really start to rock. Don't look for me to be betting on that though.
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N.E. 35 - CLE 19
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N.E. 34 - CLE 17 WINNER
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Pittsburgh returns home after a stunning loss to an NFC West team. Don't they get another NFC West team coming in this week, with a head of steam fresh off a big road win no less. Seattle not usually one to strike fear in the heart of any team they visit, tries it's fortunes in the Steel City with a six point spot. Even with points and such Seattle is still like 30% covering or so on the road, including losing in Arizona earlier on this season, to a team built to be "like" Pittsburgh, now they get the team they were modeled after. Pitsburgh, by the way has won big as big favorites in both home games earlier this year. Counting last weeks road win in San Fran you could say Seattle has turned the corner on the road, and is ready to give Pittsburgh a run in the Steel City. Or, if you buy into that historical trend data stuff then you figure Seattle is due for the third road trip of this young season wind up in L column, statistically speaking that is.
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PIT 24 - SEA 14
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PITT 21 - SEA 0 WINNER
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This should be a very interesting match up. The Lions are roaring into this game with a huge home victory last week establishing themselves as a contender in the NFC North. The Redskins are back from a bye and still standing tall at 2-1 after a strong start. Detroit as we mentioned last week, if nothing else can score. Tough to pick a team that gets a 50 dropped on it a couple weeks ago, and allowed 27 last week to an anemic Bears offense, but to be fair a lot of the Bears points could be attributed to their special teams as well. Washington was exposed a little before their bye last week, and even if they study the 56 points that Philly put on the Lions they will need a QB to stand in there and sling it around a bunch to do that, and while Jason Campbell is a decent QB, I don't know that he can get into a offensive shootout track meet type of game. Fortunatly the Skins have a good enough defense that they don't have to score a bunch to win. The Lions will score on anyone, and if the Lions can get some early scores going, that will be a lot of pressure on that Washington offense to keep up.
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DET 27 - WAS 24
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WAS 24 - DET 3 LOSER
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Don't look now but the Bucs ride into Indianapolis atop the NFC South division. They have been doing it with solid defense and a gritty hard working offense. The Colts have atypically of defending SuperBowl Champions been a very solid bet all season. One of my few shining moments in an otherwise abysmal week last week. Tampa has the kind of defense that can slow a Payton Manning offense and probably stand the best chance of any Colt opponent thus far of keeping it within arms legnth (like say 10). Will they be able to on this given Sunday is a different matter? I for one am not going to bet on that.
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IND 24 - TAM 13
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IND 33 - TAM 14 WINNER
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Well don't look now but the Chargers ship looks to have sailed. The Fans were chanting "Marty Marty" at home last week! Right about now San Diego fans would be all willing to swap a winning record for a coach that ONLY got them into the playoffs every year and lost. Yeah thats right Moonbeam, the Norv Turner era thus far has been underwhelming. Denver is also facing a bit of adversity, as they get back home from a nasty drubbing in Indy. Nothing like home cooking for the Broncos though whom despite having gone 5 straight games without a cover, have managed to beat San Diego in Denver in 6 of the last 7 there. San Diego will have to operate on a different level to get something done up in Mile High, it is not like they are not capable of doing so. Yet that track record in Denver and the way things been going of late, I don't know if they have the confidence that they can.
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DEN 24 - SD 20
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SD 41 - DEN 3 LOSER
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Seems the season of such promise for San Francisco has taken a bit of a detour. Alex Smith has not really picked up his game to the level where he can effectively provide a passing threat to get the defense to loosen up so they can unleash Frank Gore. Instead the Niners have been sputtering the past few weeks, and now Smith is out. Dusting off old Trent Dilfer might not be the worst thing in the world for San Fran right now. Neither is offensively challenged Baltimore coming into the Bay area. Sure the Ravens have plenty of defense still, but San Fran wants to play that kind of game too. Dilfer against the team he led to a SuperBowl title, this could be just the thing to get the Niners offense started.
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S.F. 21 - BAL 17
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BAL 9 - SF 7 COVER
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Now this one is gonna be a war. The Bears are bringing up the rear and looking up at Green Bay in the standings. This is a must win desperation game for the Bears, and it is October now... Speaking of Green Bay what can you say about that ole Gunslinger Brett Favre. For a guy who acted like he was riding off into the sunset, he sure isn't playing like it. The Packers are sitting there at 4-0 and are gaining momentum every week, and here in prime time in Cheese land they are out to show the country that they are a very good legit 4-0 team, and I won't make the mistake I made with the Pats last week again. Green Bay is a very good team and good teams win.
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GB 27 - CHI 7
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CHI 27 - GB 20 LOSER
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Now after last week, there really is no purpose in my putting this off anymore. I mean I had two winners last week, when I originally did my picks, and then changed them right before I published it. Then after promptly going 3-10 on Sunday, (although going into the night game I was 6-7 ATS - with a chance to get even) I was influenced by all the upsets, and went on the underdogs. Only to be reminded like my Bostonian friends did ALL WEEK (thanks guys!) that New England indeed IS the best team in the NFL this season, and whatever factors influenced the foolery that led me to take the BENGALS, I need to just stick to my guns, and just pick the WINNERS...
what has that got to do with this game... BUFFALO, DALLAS, could there be two franchises that better epitomize BOTH ends of the spectrum?? 10 points, shmoints. Who gonna win? C'Mon now, like you really need to wait for my pick?
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DALLAS 31 - BUF 13
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DAL 25 - BUF 24 WINNER/No Cover
Bye: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia