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Detroit, if you can believe it, finds itself in first place, and relevant in the NFL kingdom. The Eagles are trying to avoid going 0-3 and dropping the second straight at home. 3 other times in the last few years the Eagles started the season 0-2, they bounced back to do what few have done, and even qualify for the playoffs. That makes this a must win desperation game, and despite starting out 2-0 these are still the Detroit Lions aren't they? They can’t really be 3-0 good now can they? On the road in Philly? I don’t buy it. In a must win game at home the Birds will bounce back and avoid digging themselves an 0-3 hole. If not, these Lions will really start to get a lot more attention, and make quite the statement.
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PHI 27 - DET 17
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PHI 56 - DET 21 WINNER
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A couple of beleaguered teams get a break this week as one of them will get their first win. Despite both these dogs coming in with an 0-2 mark, there will be plenty of hard hitting in this big rivalry. Although, to be honest it hasn’t been much of a rivalry lately. The Jets have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, and if you happen to be of the gaming sort, the Jets have covered in the last 8 straight. That frankly brings us all the way back to the days of ‘the mustache’, Dave Wannstedt. Funny how ‘the mustache’ era now looks like the glory days in Miami. Sure the Phins are getting 3 and the Jets aren’t exactly the type of team you can feel good about laying any points with, even were they playing their starting QB. The alternative however, taking Miami and the points, has a historically much lower percentage chance of paying off than what that payoff would be.
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NYJ 17 – MIA 10
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NYJ 31 - MIA 28 WINNER
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I think it is still too early to hand out trophies in the NFL, but if the Pats keep this up, this may be one case where the pundits who claimed that the Patriots were the best team in the NFL back in April will be proven right come January. Now how do you suppose a down and out Buffalo team trying to rebound from a beat down going back to back on the road will be able to stay with this Juggernaut? Recent trends show that they can’t New England has won the last 5 meetings, and the last 5 meetings at home. However the Bills are getting two touchdowns or more, and get this, in both of the last two games in Foxboro, Buffalo has covered both times as 9 point underdogs. This time you get an extra six points to play with if you wanna take that bet. I won’t, but you could if you want to.
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N.E. 31 – BUF 13
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N.E. 38 - BUF 7 WINNER
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Well, we tried to warn you about the Kyle Boller factor last week. Sure enough Boller played QB for the Ravens and just like magic weren’t you sweating out that big ole line, only to have the Jesters rip your heart out with those ‘meaningless’ 4th Qtr points. I am afraid you will be needing more antacids this week, because actually Boller didn’t play that badly, and even were McNair to be able to go on Sunday, Arizona has been playing a spirited defense. They were very tough on the road in opening night, and last week upsetting Seattle at home was one of the biggest games in the history of this team in Arizona. Once again, I will be picking against what I am writing about here, only because I just can’t see myself actually putting any action on Arizona. But getting 9.5 points or more and with the Ravens QB situation still up in the air, the Cards might be worth considering as crazy as that sounds.
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BAL 24 - AZ 14
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BAL 26 - AZ 23 WINNER/No Cover
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We were a week early with that whole Tampa pick, as witnessed last week against what many people thought was a decent New Orleans team. Tampa is playing some good ball again, and in Tampa’s Raymond James stadium they are always tough. St. Louis dropped a home game to a divisional opponent, even though they really outplayed the Niners for most of the game, but in the end the Rams came up a couple yards short. The 0-2 Rams now need to win in Tampa to avoid the season slipping away entirely. The Rams haven’t fared very well outdoors and on Grass. In the Tampa heat, against that spirited Tampa defense, the Rams offense will have it’s work cut out protecting QB Marc Bulger who has thus far been beaten and battered behind St. Louis’ patchwork offensive line. As goes Bulger and the offense so goes the St. Louis Rams, as the Ram defense although looking improved last week from week 1, is not the kind of defense that can carry this team, especially in a hot south Florida September game.
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TAM 26 – STL 20
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TAM 24 - STL 3 WINNER
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A Big time, big test of two early season 2-0 clubs. Although with the line on this game being 9.5 it sure seems like they don’t see this as a big time game. The Niners run into Pittsburgh on the back of Frank Gore, who is basically carrying the Niner Offense thus far. Pittsburgh looks back in classic form, with a stalwart defense and getting it done on offense as well. Tough to go against the Niners especially after they came up golden for me a couple of times this season already. Yet Back to back road trips like this can take its toll. So will a swarming Pittsburgh defense, which will storm to shut down Frank Gore, and force Alex Smith to beat them. From what I saw last week, that could be just what the Dr. Ordered for the Steelers to get off to a 3-0 start.
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PIT 24 – SF 13
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PIT 37 - SF 16 WINNER
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The Champs followed up their week 1 blow out, with a nail biter in Tennessee last week. We did have that one pegged last week, just like we pegged Houston in week 1. Neither case did we actually go along with our analysis and make the pick, just woulda coulda B.S. So in the ultimate "I told you so" I am going to go hog wild and actually bet the Texans… whoa hold them horses… er I mean Colts. Seems that there is an injury question with Houston WR Andre Johnson, who has been key to the Texans emergence. Don’t kid yourself though Houston is for real this year, that Defense is good. Just like Tennessee last week, Houston has matched up with the Colts well, even beating a SuperBowl bound Colts team last year in Houston in December. Including that Houston has covered in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Indy. That was before having guys like Amobi Okoye, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryan on that defense, they were also getting spotted in the neighborhood of 17 points too though. While Houston has come a long way in earning my respect and the respect of Vegas, once again I remain ignorant of my early season mistakes and jump on the Colts for one more Sunday ride.
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IND 28 – HOU 20
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IND 30 - HOU 24 WINNER
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What only a few weeks ago looked like it might be a laugher now has the makings of a very interesting interconference showdown. The resurgent Packers are back home hosting a Charger team who was ransacked in the Sunday night game by New England. San Diego’s once dominant defense was very vulnerable to the passing game, and offensively the passing game has been struggling as well. There is one thing the young Packer team does have going for it is Brett Farve. He can still air it out with the best of them. The Packers will stack the line and force Rivers to throw, and if Brett can stay hot like he did last week, and get a few scores for the cheese heads to get real excited and all early… the pack just might find itself sitting at 3-0 and one of the Superbowl favorites will be sitting at 1-2. Don’t know if I will go that far, but with them 3.5 points, it’s looking like G.B. may be the dog of the week.
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S.D. 27 – G.B. 24
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GB 31 - SD 24 COVER
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Well after two games Kansas City finally scored a TD last week. They may have lost that game, but at least Herm Edwards team is making progress. They did get it in the endzone at least. In retrospect, they did face a couple of really tough defenses, the past two weeks the formidable Bears and the up and coming Houston defense. Kansas City also cranks it up a notch at home where they have won 6 of the last 7 home games, and have been money to the tune of 11-3 against the line. The Vikings though have shown that they too have a formidable defense, and are an OT FG from being 2-0 right now, playing an 0-2 team. The Vikes will feature a big dose Adrian Peterson and if K.C. can’t shut that down, that shiny home record and all will be staring at an 0-3 start to what could be a very long Season.
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K.C. 20 - MIN 17
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KC 13 - MIN 10 WINNER
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Alas once again we have the Raiders on the docket. Thus far this young season the Raiders are proving to be a thorn in my side. Getting blown out at home as a mild favorite to Detroit, then covering as a big underdog in Denver which has been a house of horrors for them since Mike Shanahan has been there. So fresh off those two impressive showings they installed the Raiders as a 3 point favorite against the Browns. You remember the Browns don't you? The offensive machine which spent the preseason and week 1 hibernating then got the memo that the regular season had started and put up 51 points last week. The Raiders do have somewhat of a defense, but can they slow that offensive juggernaut from CLEVELAND?? I am thinking they can, but lets be real careful all things I say Oakland… the best analysis there has always been to just FADE THE RAID. Let’s face it one of Cleveland’s few bright spots last year was beating Oakland in Oakland. So with that wisdom in mind I break TWO of my cardinal rules, and bet against a team that put up 5o the preceding week, AND going against old reliable, Fade the Raid! God help me I am actually taking the marauders to slow down the big brown machine.
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OAK 21 – CLE 17
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OAK 26 - CLE 24 HA HA HA HAH!
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Jacksonville pays a visit to the Mile High Club up in Denver. Denver has survived by kicking it's way to victory in the closing moments, despite being big favorites against lesser teams in both contests. Denver is favored once again in this one, only you won't get the luxury of a 10 point spot like you did last week. Although to be honest the way Jacksonville’s offense has been playing this year thus far you may need the ten points simply to consider to take them.
Jacksonville has not been impressive at all on offense yet this season, and they will need some ‘O’ to hang with these Broncs. The Problem for Denver is that they would be just as content to win by three or two or one, just so long as they win again. Which against a big time D like Jacksonville make the fact that I can get better than a FG on this one completely foolishly irresistible.
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DEN 16 – JAC 14
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JAC 23 - DEN 14 COVER
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Hard to imagine an NFL QB throwing for 6 TDs and his team still losing the game. That clearly states that teams defense is probably not all that good. So much for Cincy and that fabulous road record, how can you possibly bet on a team that gave up over 50 points.
I guess you line them up against a team that lost to the Cardinals, which Seattle went and did. Presto the game of the week. No I am not kidding about that one either this one promises to be a gem. This is a big game for both teams after stinging losses both want to come back strong. Cincy should be able to find some seams in the Seattle defense up there and will score some points. Unlike the Cincy defense last week, Seattle actually may make some plays on defense. That Cincy defensive unit looked more charitable than Mother Teresa and keeping Seattle from grinding down yards and the clock, looks darn near impossible.
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SEA 31 – CIN 27
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SEA 24 - CIN 21 WINNER
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The Big City blue guys head down the highway to the Nations capital to visit long time rival, Washington fresh off a Monday Night victory in Philly. The 2-0 Skins are sitting atop the NFC East and don’t intend to let the Giants off the hook nor out of the basement after their 0-2 start. The Giants may be 0-2 this season, but as of now have replaced the Raiders on the top of my list. That’s right the Giants are the best team in the NFL right now. The best team to bet against that is. The Giants have arguably the worst defense in the NFL, despite Cincy trying to wrest that title away last week. Yeah I know about NY’s flashy offense with Burress, and Shockey and Manning. However that is just window dressing getting the suckers with the big bucks from New York to give them a reason to go and play them as a dog. There are far better dogs out there than NY, especially going against a team with a tough running game like Washington. It takes heart to stop the run, and Coughlin’s team is just not playing for him right now. That makes this game, this week real easy now don’t it.
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WAS 31 – NY 24
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NYG 24 - WAS 17 LOSER
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This is one of those sneaky tough match ups. The Panthers looked to be clicking on all cylinders, after a week 1 road victory over the Rams. Yet last week in their home opener they were pancaked at home by Houston. The Falcons however have been very consistent this year. Consistently bad that is. Carolina despite being shredded last week at home, got another prime time performance from Steve Smith. One would think Smith would be enough to out gun a flightless Falcon team, which has the dubious distinction of having more points scored off turnovers against them this year, than points they scored. Not a good formula for winning games at this level though. However despite the dismal offensive showing, and despite Carolina coming in as a big favorite, Atlanta covered last week, and I have a sneaking suspicion at home that they just might pull that off again.
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CAR 17 – ATL 13
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CAR 27 - ATL 20 WINNER/No Cover
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Dallas highlights the weekends prime time match up, for the second time in three weeks. Considering that they are 2-0 and visiting the defending conference champs there is plenty of intrigue in this game, other than us degenerates trying to "get even" that is. The Cowboys have been really clicking offensively this year AVERAGING 41 points per game. Though that might be somewhat skewed in that they haven't really faced a big time defense yet. This week will be a huge test against probably the NFC's best defensive unit. The problem for the Bears has been on the other side of the ball, and without Thomas Jones this year, that running game has really been lacking its teeth. That makes it really tough to go out and take the Bears against a really explosive offensive team like Dallas, and while were at it spot Dallas some points? If the Bears can't run the ball effectively this week, and keep that Cowboy offense off the field then they will get worn down with Jones and Barber, and company, Tony Romo will keep slinging it around, and eventually T.O. is going to get free, and of course come up with some other shenanigans to get the attention on himself and distract everyone else as to how good a team Dallas really has.
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DAL 23 - CHI 17
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Well after the week I been having, I will bet more than a few of you are curious to see what I got up my sleeves for Monday Night and this one will not disappoint. The Saints are another of those too good to be oh and two teems, like the Jets, Giants, Chiefs and Eagles all "came out" from the ranks of the winless and stated that they are alive. Folks are right in thinking New Orleans will be the next one to "come out", at 0-2 the NFC runner ups will be in desperation mode at home here on Monday night. The Dome will be electric. Yet the problem is that the Titans are a very wiley underdog. Vince Young is really picking up where he left off and is showing no ill effects of being on the cover of Madden. Something about that Vince Young factor that really leads me to play the spoiler in New Orleans.
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N.O. 24 - TEN 23
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TEN 31 - N.O. 14 COVER
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