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Buffalo goes into Pittsburgh and this one couldn't be more lopsided in the line or in the projection. True Buffalo was one of our big plays last week as a 3.5 point dog. While everything lined up for Buffalo to win that game, they are the Bills and the promptly lost that in typical Buffalo style. At least they were a big winner for me where it counts! No such problems for Pittsburgh who looks back in Super Form. Pittsburgh easily rolled the Browns last week in Cleveland and comes flying high into this game. Sure it’s a 10 point spread, but I would be surprised if it’s even near that close.
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PIT 27 - BUF 14
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PIT 26 - BUF 3 WINNER
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Not for anything, but last week I was really wanting to take Houston, I really toiled in that pick. In some places later on last week, I saw where they were an even bet to even a point and a half underdogs (like where that line rightfully should have been). Had I seen that when I was making my picks - yeah well hindsight. Point is Houston had looked pretty good all preseason, and Kansas City had all the ingredients of a disaster waiting to happen. I just couldn't pull the trigger on Houston. Couldn't do it then, and at Carolina, even as a 6 point dog, I still won't. Like last week, it doesn't mean I don't think that Houston has a shot in this game. I am seeing that this is the season Houston moves to respectability. However that won't come this week at the expense of the Panthers. Unless of course they are all full of themselves after week one and go into this game thinking like I did last week, that Houston was a bunch of patsies. That could never happen now could it?
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CAR 24 - HOU 14
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HOU 34 - CAR 21 LOSER
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Well so much for that building momentum in the preseason theory. If we learned nothing at all from the Dennis Green era in Arizona, it's just that. What does that have to do with Atlanta. Well not much really except for the fact that like the Cardinals of late, Atlanta has all the making of a dead bird this year. Going into once feared Jacksonville after they were beaten up and beaten down by rival Tennessee last week does not bode well for the struggling Falcons. Joey Harrington struggled against an improving Viking defense last week, and the Falcons only mustered 3 points. Although he did throw two TD passes, albeit to the Vikings. I can't really see them doing much better this week, against a teed up Jacksonville club looking to avoid going 0-2 at home to start the year. Although with that J-ville offense, they will no doubt have ya sweating out that 10 pt. line!
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JAC 21 - ATL 6
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JAX 13 - ATL 7 Winner/No Cover
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The Bucs hung tough up in Seattle most of last weeks game, and despite the 20-6 final tally, it was a much closer game than that. That is of little consolation to the Bucs though who still find themselves tied with New Orleans in the basement of the NFC South. If the season were just one game, you could keep New Orleans down in the basement, but the NFL season is not a sprint, it is a marathon. Drew Brees will resurrect the Saints season this week in a place where the Saints have feasted covering 4 of the last 5 visits to Tampa. Tampa will once again play hard and keep this one close, but once again the Bucs will lose the loot in the end.
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N.O. 23 - TAM 13
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TAM 31 - N.O. 14 LOSER
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OK count me as one of the haters who counted Brett Favre out last week. SO with a huge dose of BBQ Crow, I have to accept the fact that Green Bays defense sure looked much better than anticipated last week, and if they can play any defense at all, they will surely look better than NY's defense did last week. The Giants didn't look bad last week, they looked like a bad high school team. It seemed anyone the Cowboys lined up was running free in the Giants secondary. That secondary probably looks awful inviting to Mr. Brett Farve who obviously has enough in the tank to pull off an opening day win over a tough Philly defense. Giants stadium was once the home of some amazing defenses. This version would be amazing if they can actually make a stop. Another wild shootout if Eli plays, if not it could be a GB Blowout.
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G.B. 36 - N.Y. 30
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G.B. 35 - N.Y. 13 WINNER
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San Fran has historically struggled in St. Louis, winning only 5 of the last 15 visits there. However if anyone (on the East coast) stayed awake last week, they saw San Fran snap another streak against a team they struggled against as well. Although San Fran did look really sloppy for most of that game, and if not for playing the Cards they were pretty close to dropping their home opener. St. Louis was pushed around by Carolina at home last week, and wound up losing the main cog on their offensive line Orlando Pace who is done for the year. That won’t help their running game, even with Stephen Jackson, and the defense will have to play much better this week to contain Frank Gore. Alex Smith will need to play better than he did most of last week, even though he did make the clutch plays with the game on the line to pull it out. I am counting on that momentum to carry over and help Alex elevate his play and help me to score this big Upset.
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SF 27 - STL 24
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S.F. 17 - STL 16 WINNER
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Tough draw for the Cleveland Browns. They were completely run over last week at home, and they get to line up again in front of the home fans for another mistake near the lake. Yeah they will probably wind up dropping the first two games of this season at home, however they should be used to it there as they have lost 4 of the last 5 home games. The Bengals come in with a ton of confidence getting the early leg up in the division on Monday Night against a tough defense like Baltimore. Cincy has been money on the road in the Carson Palmer era covering in like 16 of the last 20 road games. Mix that with some of that Brownie home cooking and you see how easily Cleveland can add to that streak of losing their last 5 in a row.
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CIN 28 - CLE 13
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CLE 51 - CIN 45 LOSER
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Now this is one of those real tough match ups. Shades of last weeks Houston/Kansas City match up, where everything points to the home team, and I will probably just ignore it. Tennessee has already surpassed many peoples expectation with last weeks opening road win in Jacksonville. The Colts silenced their critics by putting up 41 points on what many considered a very good New Orleans team on opening night. You may have noticed last week though (and I know I sound like a broken record sometimes) that historically Super Bowl Champs have not been very good plays in the following year. Looking at the trends, last week was somewhat of an anomaly, as before that the Colts had only covered in one of the last 5. While Tennessee has been one of the best in that department riding an 8-1 record into this game. While Indy has dominated this rivalry winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. Last year Tennessee covered in both meetings and ended the string of seven straight Indy victories with a 20-17 tally in Tennessee. So despite being the MOST ATTRACTIVE dog of the week, just like with that Houston pick last week, I still can’t pull the trigger on this one, and Vince Young and the Titans will probably make me regret it.
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IND 28 – TEN 20
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IND 22 - TEN 20 WINNER/No Cover
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OK another tough divisional match up with a couple of teams that both had impressive opening day wins. Minnesota handled Atlanta with an opportunistic defense that created turnovers. While Detroit did the same out in Oakland. Then again the Lions were playing Oakland, so maybe we shouldn’t get out the anointing oil just yet. Detroit has plenty of firepower on offense although in the past have had a penchant for turnovers, against a team like Minnesota who has thus far lived off turnovers that could be a difference maker. Minnesota knows this Detroit team very well having bested them in the last 10 meetings.
You would have to go all the way back to the 2002 season to even find the last time Detroit put up a W against the Vikes, and yet they still tabbed the Lions as the favorite. Figuring every streak must eventually come to an end, even though it wouldn’t take very much to get me to change my mind on this one.
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DET 31 - MIN 17
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DET 20 - MIN 17 WINNER
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The new look Cowboys opened up the Wade Phillips era with an offensive explosion and poured in 45 points. Never mind that they allowed 35, as Phillips said at the press conference afterwards "how about that offense". The Cowboys could have a hard time improving on that type of offensive production against an NFL caliber defense like Miami. While Miami does have that gaudy September home record (not helped out any by last years crew, that’s for sure) and despite the generous nature of the Cowboy defense. I just don't see Miami as being able to exploit that defense very much, with what I saw from that offense all pre-season, and then last week in Washington they were even worse. All that means is that despite how good that Dolphin defense is, eventually they will wear down. Then of course comes the inevitable Terrell Owens highlight reel, on a worn out defense.
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DAL 27 - MIA 13
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DAL 37 - MIA 20
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The Seahawks set the pace out in the NFC West and as the favorites out there started the year with an impressive home win. The Seahawks downfall however has always been their ability (or lack of it) to win on the road. Don’t just take my word for it look it up, they have only covered 3 of the last 9 road games. Seattle though has won 7 of the last 9 meetings with the Cards. Arizona did however, earn those two wins in the last 3 times they met in Arizona. The Cards are once again a fancy dark horse pick out, as this weeks home dog. Seems they are perennially that dark horse team. The reason for that being that they are a team you wouldn't expect to win it. Expectations actually get set by actually doing something, and it seems that for a team that has actually done nothing, those expectations sure seem unrealistic don't they.
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SEA 30 - AZ 21
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AZ 23 - SEA 20 LOSER
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Well if you didn't think very much of the Jets going into the season, I am sure watching the 38-14 home waxing last week probably helped sell you on that. Baltimore almost pulled out a tough Monday Nighter in Cincy, but might be without starting QB Steve McNair in this one. Throw in that starting QB Chad Pennington wound up on the shelf and could be out of this one and you can see why no one wants to take any action on this game.
When the line does come out I expect Baltimore would be about 3.5 pt favorite.
Then of course keep in mind you could wind up looking at Kyle Boller at the helm while sitting there trying to cover any bigger point spread. Yet despite starting out the year 0-1 and ruining last Monday nights parlay for me, the banged up Ravens are still the pick in this barnstormer.
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BAL 23 - NYJ 12
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BAL 20 - NYJ 13 WINNER/No Cover
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There is a very good reason why it seems every week I am throwing out all kinds of clichés like formulas, and teams records against certain opponents and such. The reason is that trends like that are very strong indicators as to how certain teams tend to perform in certain situations. For like the past 3 years or so, one of our strongest trends around here has been a rather easy yet surprisingly effective formula. Simple really, fade the Raid. Really that is all there is to it and for like three years it has come in like 80% or more. Once we go away from that like we did last week, for whatever the reason, new year, new coach, new QB, whatever. It blows up in our face, well call me a litany of names, but if you see something often enough, call it a trend, and call me a chalk picker or a cherry picker or whatever just remind me, to follow my own advice and just "fade the Raid" already. It has been one of the steadiest formulas in an unpredictable league, week-in-week-out. This week it is in Denver, but does it really matter where? Exactly.
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DEN 35 - OAK 13
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DEN 23 - OAK 20 WINNER/No Cover
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Generally you won't see too many teams installed as this big a fave, especially when they have only mustered 3 points all season. At that rate it would take Chicago until sometime in October to manage to score enough to cover that one. Under those circumstances that alone would be enough to take a big dog. However Kansas City is no ordinary double digit dog. Sure they have Larry Johnson, but what else do they have. They were absolutely lambasted last week by what many people believed is a J.V. type team in Houston. They were routinely smashed by guys not even in the league in preseason... oh yeah what was that I was saying about the preseason before. I guess it is meaningless, unless of course the team in question looked completely inept in the preseason, and then of course reprised that act in the regular season. Thus you have the very large underdog that I wouldn't touch with Monopoly Money.
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CHI 23 - K.C. 6
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CHI 20 - KC 10 WINNER/No Cover
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Now this is truly a scintillating match up. Two powerhouses and potential superbowl teams getting it on in prime time. While this game has plenty of mass appeal for the folks interested in watching a good game. We here at the NFL edge, hate good games. We would much rather sniff out the lopsided boring games where one team dominates. So while America looks forward to this big early season test, let's hope that you aren't one of those guys chasing a whole day of losses on this game. If that’s the case, really do yourself a favor and bet on a baseball game or something, I don't really see this kind of game as an investment, rather consider it entertainment and spend the time going over the matchups for Monday or next week. Two good teams like this in the early part of the year, way too unpredictable. Since we gotta go on record, and heck I won’t be chasing it on this game. I will go ahead and play the wise guy here, and say that the Bolts can slow Randys Dandys up there in New England on Prime time.
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S.D. 27 - N.E. 20
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NE 38 - SD 14 LOSER
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Here we have one final pick before we put week 2 in the books. Both teams are coming into this game with surprising records. The Redskins are a surprising 1-0 going into Philly after their big home win last week. The Eagles dropped a game up in Green Bay, and will be looking to bounce back for the home opener in a season with high expectations. The Eagles are a TD favorite on the thought that they will roll the Skins in Philly on prime time. Gotta hunch that might not be the case as this weekend has already been full of surprises, might we be in for more. The Skins have a tough defense, and know these Eagles well enough that they can keep this game from getting out of control early with that opening night momentum flowing for the birds early. The X factor here is Jason Campbell for the Skins. Portis, and Betts will give them some ground game, and if Campbell can mix in enough passing to keep the Eagles off balance a little, I think the Skins will pull the upset - at least with the 7 points. However what's not surprising here, as has been the pattern this season so far, (Tennessee, Houston!!) I won't follow my own analysis and got the right break down, and then go and pick the other way, I think I may be doing that again, but man do they make good Cheesteaks in Philly.
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PHI 23 - WAS 14
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WAS 20 - PHI 12 LOSER
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