2005 NFL PROJECTIONS

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Saturday, Dec. 24
Atlanta at Tampa Bay -3.5

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At this stage in the NFL season, what you have are essentially playoff games, and games just like the preseason, meaningless but they still have to play them. This one is one of the former, Atlanta needs this game as they are in a dogfight for a playoff spot. Likewise Tampa was demoralized in New England last week. The recent history shows a HUGE edge for the Bucs having won and covered in 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Falcons. Including the Bucs winning the last two and a wild one earlier this year in Atlanta. This one is in Tampa and with much bigger stakes. This one will be good, and if you don’t think this is playoff football, just look at what will happen to the loser. No offense to Jon Gruden and the Bucs, they may be 9-5 but are a mere 7-7 ATS and only 3-3 ATS at home. Kind of a long shot in this one, but I got a hunch Mr. Vick has one big effort left in him, and the Falcons get a little revenge over the Buckling Bucs.
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ATL 23 - TAM 20
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Buffalo at Cincinnati -13.5

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The Bengals are enjoying the happiest of Holidays in southern Ohio in many a year. The Bengals have clinched the AFC North, and going to the playoffs. That makes this game much less like an NFL game, and certainly wont be a playoff atmosphere. Instead it will be more like a preseason game, with a Party. A very cold preseason game, and a very festive holiday party. Now you know what happens at Holiday Parties this time of year, thats right someone gets too drunk and strange things happen. Just like that, this game has almost no meaning, as the Bengals have the division secure and wont get the no. 1 seed with the Colts having that already wrapped up. So that makes this essentially a preseason game. Preseason games by rule are risky to bet on. So is this one. The Bengals may be treating this like a party, or they could be focused determined to send a message and have another big comfortable win. See this is where all that preseason wagering pays off. Remember way back to August, how The Bengals were crushing people even in those meaningless games. Even on cruise control the Bengals should cruise against the limping Bills.
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CIN 30 - BUF 14
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Dallas at Carolina -4.5

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This one will also have that playoff feel to it. However in reality it will be more like a preseason game. The wheels officially fell off the Dallas wagon last week in Washington. Sure I said this before this season and it seems I am one week late on the Cowboys every week. Although to their credit, every time Dallas has had what seems like a crushing defeat, they just pop back up and turn in a great game. Carolina rolled last week, just like we predicted, winning impressively, but that was against the Saints. Carolina has struggled against good teams this year, and Dallas can play like a good team, and has after big losses all year. The Cowboys have won 4 of 5 regular season meetings against the Panthers in the past. Will the Cowboys hearts' be into it this week though? After that crushing demoralizing defeat in Washington. The look on Parcell's face last week said it all... as old Don Meredith used to sing, "turn out the lights, the party's over"
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CAR. 29 - DALL 17
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Detroit at New Orleans -2.5

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This one just reeks of preseason. You all should be thankful that the NFL gives us gems like this. It has been great fun all season betting against the likes of both of these two. Soon we won't have cupcakes like these two on the schedule to pick against. So for that we need to be thankful this holiday season, and thankful we don’t live in New Orleans. We definitely want to send our thoughts and prayers to the city of New Orleans for what happened there. Our Christmas wish is for the City of New Orleans to rebuild, its homes, its businesses, the French quarter, and yes maybe one day they will rebuild that football team. Detroit? Mo town on da road... who dat?
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DET 24 - NO 17
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Jacksonville at Houston +5.5

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Well now Houston went and did it. Oh yeah they won last week, at home. However the fans were actually booing the home team. See instead of being in the drivers seat for Reggie Bush, by winning Houston ties 4 other teams in the NFL in the Bush derby, and could wind up losing that game, like they have lost so many others this year. The Jags have piled up the wins this year, and even after Leftwich went out. Ask any gambler though and he will tell you that Jacksonville has cost him plenty of money when playing against teams they are "supposed" to beat. That’s when they struggle, against a now HOT Texans team, that spells trouble.
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JAC 23 - HOU 17
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N.Y. Giants at Washington -2.5

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This one should be a great one as this will have a playoff feel in Washington. They drew the largest crowd in Redskin history last week, which they coupled with the most lopsided win over the Cowboys ever. The Giants are rolling down the stretch having won 2 in a row, and with a win can lock up the NFC East title. Then there is the small fact the Giants rolled up a 36-0 victory last time they met the Skins in New York. Washington will no doubt be looking for payback, and at 8-6 with some losses by other NFC playoff contenders, the Skins now control their own playoff destiny and a win here will go a long way to keeping that invitation open. The Giants can lose this one and are still sitting pretty with 10 wins. Is that really the team you want to be betting on, even if they are unusually hot! You know my motto stay away from the playoff games, there you have it.
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NO PICK
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Pittsburgh at Cleveland +6.5

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The Steelers look to be on a big roll toward the playoffs, and the visit arch rival Cleveland. Don’t go to sleep on Cleveland now, as they have covered 2 in a row, and have been solid posting a 7-7 ATS mark. This is a dangerous game for Pittsburgh, as Cleveland has been playing with the heart of a team still in the race. Not exactly the cakewalk some of these other teams at this time of year are, and not exactly one of exhibition like tune ups some other teams face. Cleveland has a beat em up physical defense, and will not be handing the Steelers any Christmas presents, in fact it looks an awful lot like Coal. Big BROWN STINKY COAL.
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PITT 14 - CLE 13
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San Diego at Kansas City -1.5

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Another of those great Playoff type games, this one is essentially an elimination game. What have we said about those playoff games?? The Chiefs despite lots of critics, are still alive in the playoff race, and are now home to try and make that happen, or at least spoil thier division rivals playoff chances. The Chargers come into Kansas City with their feet already in the fire. The Chargers came up with a historic effort last time out, and they needed it when they let Miami drop them at home the week before. The Chargers won’t be greeted as warmly as the Southern California boys were last week in the nice climate controlled dome. Instead they are outside in the cold loud Arrowhead. The Chiefs may be overrated, but it’s still a bad idea to wager against them in Arrowhead. The public will be all over San Diego after beating the Colts last week, that's why I think that K.C. at home is a nice bargain this week.
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K.C. 33 - S.D. 27
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San Francisco at St. Louis -8.5

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Ahhh finally one of those games that more closely resemble a pre-season game, rather than a serious NFL game. The defeated against the deflated. No don’t steer clear of these games. Steer clear of Tampa-Atlanta, San Diego-Kansas, NY-Wash. This one is where you should be. The Niners as inept as they seem actually covered last week, The 6th time this season. The Rams have lost three straight since the improbable comeback victory in Houston four weeks ago. The Rams still have that running game going with Stephen Jackson and Marshall Faulk still in the fold. The Rams problem this year, has been defense and San Fran really hasn’t been able to even score a TD since they inserted Alex Smith at QB, they may not muster much of a threat this week to change that even against this battered unit. It’s amazing how much better a defense can seem when they are playing an inept offense. Oh but there is good news for Niner fans, San Fran is now in the lead in the Reggie Bush derby.
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STL 26 - SF 12
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Tennessee at Miami -4.5

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So how do we like Nick Saban and his "the outcome doesn’t matter" now? Tricky Nicky has run off FOUR in a row, and even after New England winning veritably eliminated Miami they still played tough and with heart enough to win. Oh but that was against the Jets. The Titans also covered at home last week against the Seahawks, so the Titans still have some fight left this year. They may be young but still have some vets that were there when they downed the Dolphins in Miami last years opening week. So the Titans wont be intimidated as if they were going into say Indy. Just keep in mind Miami is not really a very good team going at 2-5 ATS at home, it's one very good reason why they lost 7 times and are sitting at 3-7 when Saban verbally threw in the towel. Despite that this is still one of the better picks for this week. This one won’t be easy but Saban and his red hot Fish will keep on riding that wave of "it just doesn’t matter", say it like Bill Murray; it just doesn’t matter, it just doesn’t matter...
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MIA 20 - TENN 14
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Philadelphia at Arizona -2.5

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The battle of the broken birds. Keep your marquee matchups, this is another game I really love this week. I know I have been taking lots of heat for my pervasively picking Philly. Well I have good reasons, just look at the competition. I have, and let me tell you I don't need to watch very long. Every snap I watched of the Cards-Houston game last week, Cardinal players were hanging their heads, and shrugging their shoulders. That is not a confident team, nor one even interested in playing anymore, I think. Philly on the other hand, hasn't quit by any means, and has covered now two in a row, 3 of the last 4 games. Sure going on back to back road trips takes its toll, and Philly isn't the dominating team they once were. Yet Arizona this time of year is more like a Vacation than a road trip. Bring the golf clubs... I'm gonna get me a BIRDIE.
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PHI 24 - AZ 23
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Indianapolis at Seattle -6.5

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This game certainly has lost quite a bit of its luster after Sundays big upset, and who done told you all about that one right! The Seahawks may have rolled up 12 wins, second only to the Colts 13, but are still feeling like they aren’t getting any respect around the country. This will be a good case for that respect, although with 13 wins and the home field locked up, this one may resemble a preseason game by the second half. The key will be to be on the right side of the score when that happens. The homeys in Seatown will be jumping and bumping to their 13th win, in a game that means a great deal to that team seeking respect and validation. They may just get that as Jim Sorgy could be taking snaps in the second half of this one, and Payton Manning will be wearing a visor and probably holding a clip board, right after the first big hit he has to take. What after 13 straight is that now an Indianapolis losing streak???
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SEA 29 - IND 20
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Oakland at Denver -13.5

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Did anyone dare doubt my flawless logic for the Raiders-Browns game last week. Isn't it great watching the Raiders play when you fade them. It’s like watching a suspense movie with your friends, that you already know the ending. You can just kick back relax, and count your money, even before the Browns made that last second FG to win it, you just knew it was over. How did I know that, well it took my 15 weeks but I figured it out and I am staying with my BIGGEST MONEY MAKING FORMULA from last week. Yeah that’s right, say it with me now... Fade the Raid. Fade the Raid. Fade the Raid.
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DEN 34 - JOAK 17
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Sunday, Dec. 25
Chicago at Green Bay +5.5

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NFL Football on Christmas day, Well why not? Who better than these original NFL rivals. The Bears who looked really, really good Sunday night tuning up for the Playoffs. Visit the frozen Tundra, which will more resemble a frozen dinner with some fried eggs on the field. Based on the effort or lack of it displayed Monday night. The Pack has packed it in for the holidays, and that defense doesn't look like it can stop anyone anymore. Heck Doc Biff, The Skrok, The Green Bomber and Myself could come out in the wishbone (which I ran very well mind you!) and each have 100 yrds rushing and two TDs by half time. Put me down as one who is not really sold on switching to Grossman at this stage in the season, but that wont matter this week. Even the hibernating bear’s offense should be able to crack 20 in this one. 20 points could seem like 50 to the Bears defense which really isn’t letting anyone do anything offensively. Still it’s the Bears in Green Bay, so the cheese and fur will fly.
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CHI 20 - G.B. 7
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Minnesota at Baltimore +1.5

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If you like Purple this will be the Christmas game for you. Lots of purple gold and some black and blue. The Vikings had their red hot win streak snapped by Pittsburgh in their dome last week. As Kipmat would later say, "The Vikings are still ok, they were just overdue for a game like the one" they had. They head out to Baltimore where the Ravens will be soaring into this one with a huge Monday night massacre over another NFC North opponent, the wounded Packers. The Packers made the Baltimore offense look like a juggernaut in offering little resistance. The Vikes should be able to muster a better effort, even though I am leery of taking a dome team outdoors, in a cold December game. I would like to think that what Baltimore shown last week on Monday night can be sustained, unfortinately for Raven fans this has been a season of dicontent and discord in Baltimore. Seems this time of year, even if you served your time as Jamal Lewis did, remember Santa keeps a list of every little girl and boy throughout the whole year, and the whole dealing cocaine thing may have landed the Ravens on the BAD list, and thus their coal this christmas.
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MINN 17 - BAL 16
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