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2005 NFL PROJECTIONS
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2005 Issue # XV
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Kansas City at N.Y. Giants -3.5
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The second in a slew of Saturday NFL action. The Kansas City Chiefs visit the NFC East leading Giants. The Chiefs really let me down last week in Dallas, I figured that for a wild game, but that kicker needs to make that kick. Now Kansas City is fighting for their football lives. I think this is a fairly easy one. The Giants lost key middle linebacker Antonio Pierce last week, as well as their top two offensive tackles last week against Philly, and Manning struggled once again throwing no TDs for the second straight week and three INTS. I really like the big offensive line of the Chiefs against the smaller albeit quicker Giant Defensive ends, and Larry Johnson to have a big day running the ball in a must win game for the Chiefs.
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K.C. 27 – N.Y. 20
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NY 27 - KC 17 LOSER
Denver at Buffalo +10.5
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The Prime time game will shift to the not quite ready for Prime time Buffalo. The Bills are struggling mightily right now, the defensive losses have mounted and they are a shell of the team they were earlier on this season. Yet they were absolutely dismantled by New England last week. Denver comes into this game after narrowly escaping at home against an equally struggling opponent Baltimore. Could Denver be letting up some with that inflated 10-2 mark. Could Buffalo be due for a big home bounce back effort this week. People laughed when I mentioned Philly last week, likewise I boldly predict bounce back in Buffalo, with help from a couple of Plummer picks, yet Denver still finds the way to win in the end.
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DEN 20 – BUFF 16
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DEN 28 - BUF 17 WINNER/No COVER
Sunday, Dec. 18
Arizona at Houston +1.5
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Here is a great match up of underwhelming teams for Sunday. I love this match up actually. Arizona had been playing well, especially on offense, before running into Washington’s Defense last week. They won’t have anywhere near the resistance from the Houston Texans. For Houston all the talk is actually about whether or not they may be tanking it to win the Reggie Bush Lottery. Well round here that’s old news, I started reporting that about 4 weeks ago already. This one should also remarkably resemble a farcical façade, while the Houston fans can start to speculate as to what jersey number Reggie Bush will wear.
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AZ 35 – HOU 10
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HOU 30 - AZ 19 LOSER
Carolina at New Orleans +8.5
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New Orleans was hammered yet again on Monday night. Sure they have had one rough season, this year, but even without the added turmoil they weren’t that good of a team anyway. They are still groaning and moaning about a September game, that shows how out of focus this team is. Carolina will be really chomping at the bit to get back out there, they were beaten at home by the Saints back in September, and after the number the Bucs did on them last week as well. Carolina should have a big day both by Foster running the ball and Steve Smith at the WR slot especially against that New Orleans secondary. Carolina will maintain its bid to try and claim the NFC South, and will get back on track against the deflated Saints.
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CAR 33 – N.O. 20
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CAR 27 - NO 10 WINNER
Dallas at Washington -2.5
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This game will have plenty of intrigue, as Washington has continued to scrap away and are still in the wild card hunt. In fact at 7-6 they are only one game back of Dallas, and host the Cowboys with a chance to win this game and move into a tie with Dallas when they would fall to 8-6. The Skins by virtue of their Sept 19th comeback victory in Dallas, could sweep Dallas and own the tie breaker, putting Washington in the Drivers seat. Bill Parcells and the Cowboys have other ideas though. Once again instead of crumbling from another devastating loss the Cowboys bounced back and mustered an impressive home effort to stay in arms reach of the NFC East. Depending on the Giants game on Saturday this could be for a shot to move back into the Division lead. Old Bill Parcells is masterful in games like this, when the dust settles, the Cowboys could find themselves back in the saddle.
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DAL 28 – WAS 27
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WAS 35 - DAL 7 LOSER
N.Y. Jets at Miami -7.5
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Last week was huge win for the Dolphins, for one thing it kept their slim but still possible playoff chances alive, and it pushed them to 6 wins on the season, a certain number that some of us in the preseason have wagered that Miami wouldn’t be able to go over. Well with the Jets coming to town it seems almost a certainty that Miami will go OVER the win total, and more importantly even its record at 7-7. Unless they are completely deflated if New England wins and they see their playoff dreams vanish, the Dolphins should be sky high for the engagement with Arch rival New Yorkers. I know New York won last week, that was against a heartless Raider bunch though, since Saban said it didn’t matter, Miami found a bunch of heart and has done nothing but win. That matters more times than not!
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MIA 27 – NYJ 17
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MIA 24 - NYJ 20 WINNER/No COVER
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Pittsburgh at Minnesota +3.5
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This game should be a beaut, Minnesota is on a tear that is only surpassed by Indianapolis. They host the Steelers, who routed the Vikes divisional leaders, the Bears, soundly in the snow on Sunday. The Steelers rode a rickety Bus at home to a solid win in the snow. They will find the going a whole lot tougher in the climate-less Minny-dome, where the snow wont be falling and defenders wont be slipping and sliding. This is a huge respect game for the Vikings as they feel that they aren’t given respect as a quality NFL team. Pittsburgh is fighting for their playoff lives, they have been terrific on the road and have already thwarted one winning streak for an NFC North team. This one should be quite the show, but I am sticking to my preseason pick for the NFC North and going with the home dogs.
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MIN 27 – PITT 23
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PITT 18 - MIN 3 LOSER
San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5
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OK folks the looney-tunes pick of the week. You know I like to throw one or two at you once in awhile. So this one should seem no stranger. I like the Chargers. I know they were dismantled by the Dolphins and if Gus Ferrotte did that to them, what will Payton Manning do? Well I don’t know that you would want to think it, because he is playing as perfect as any QB can, but everyone has bad days. San Diego is playing for their lives, and while Indy really has no flaws, just maybe now that they clinched the home field subconsciously everyone tends to think let up, even a little bit. Not Indy though, every man is focused and they want to make history. Still, this is the crazy part, The Chargers want to keep that from happening and keep themselves alive for the postseason. Tomlinson goes wild, and Indys streak is ruined, for no other reason than eventually, everyone, EVERYONE loses… THE upset SPECIAL!
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S.D. 41 – INDY 37
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SD 26 - IND 17 WINNER
Seattle at Tennessee +7.5
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The Seattle Seahawks have shown no signs of slowing down since winning the NFC West. In fact quite the opposite instead looking like a team hitting its peak at just the right time they have posted their most impressive wins to date. The Seahawks are playing inspired ball, and are looking to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but the way they are lighting up the scoreboard you might think they are playing to impress the BCS Selection committee. Bad news for the Hawks fans all the BCS bowls are finalized, the NFC home field looks to be just a formality though.
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SEA 27 – TENN 14
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SEA 28 - TENN 24 WINNER/No COVER
San Francisco at Jacksonville -11.5
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Things go from bad to worse for San Fran, First they were just losing, now they are getting blown out, and not really looking like they can do very much offensively at all. Giving up 41 don’t make that defense look very formidable either. Jacksonville couldn’t do what no one else has been able to do, and stop the Colts. Losing by 8 is almost a positive, especially when coming into a game when your opponent lost by 38. This one won’t be as lopsided, but still won’t be much of a contest.
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JAC 23 – S.F. 6
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JAC 10 - SF 9 WINNER/No COVER
Cincinnati at Detroit +7.5
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A big Cat-fight up in Motown. The Lions looked to have a little roar back last week in Green Bay, and actually showed some life, with QB Jeff Garcia. However the result was no different from so many other games, a Lions Loss. Last week, fans in Cincinnati were reminded that no foe in the NFL should be taken lightly, but unlike in years past, Cincy was still able to pull the game out. That’s exactly what separates this year’s Bengals from the Lions.
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CIN 37 – DET 21
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CIN 41 - DET 17 WINNER
Cleveland at Oakland -3.5
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Here is another one of those famous, ugly bowls. Loser vs loser, only there is an edge for one in this game, loser vs heartless loser. The Browns may be losers, but they still managed to hang with Cincy fairly well, and even cover. They seem inspired now under backup QB Charlie Frye, and they are playing for the future. The Raiders, are just heartless, and aren’t really interested in playing for Norv Turner anymore and it shows. I went away from my money formula last week, and it bit me big time, so were back on it again this week, even in Oakland. Fade the Raid, Fade the Raid…
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CLE 22 – OAK 20
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CLE 9 - OAK 7 WINNER
Philadelphia at St. Louis -3.5
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Here is another underwhelming match up that I phoolishly love. How many people took me seriously last week when I took Philly. OK after the Monday nighter two weeks ago, I can see why they doubted me. Yet the Eagles mustered the type of effort I expected two weeks ago, and saw last week. They played prideful defense, and stuck with a running game behind some nice blocking up front, and got a big cover. I am looking for more of that as Philly has shown they arent demoralized defensively and forced three INTs last week. They get more of that against rookie former Ivy-leaguer QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The broken Eagles take it to the shell shocked Rams.
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PHILA 27 – STL 23
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PHI 17 - STL 16 WINNER
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Atlanta at Chicago -2.5
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Chicago had its 8 game win streak snapped in the snow in Pittsburgh last week, and now get to host Atlanta after its big win Monday night over the Saints. Chicago may have lost but still looks punishing defensively. That defense will be tested this week, although there is a bit of an injury question with Micheal Vick. Vick will get it into the endzone at least a couple times, if he can play at 100%. The Bears have yet to prove that they can score more than double digits, however the Atlanta defense struggled against the Run last week, and in the cold in Chicago against a mad bunch of bears. The Falcon may get clipped.
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CHI 19 – ATL 16
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CHI 16 - ATL 3 WINNER
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MONDY NIGHT MATCHUP
Green Bay at Baltimore -2.5
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OK One more big match for this week. The Pack and Brett farve head into Baltimore.
Hard to really take this one seriously. How can anyone in their right mind take either of these two seioursly! 3-10 team vs a 4-9 team.
Really who cares, well since it is THE only game I guess some 30 million of you do care. Both these two have fared a little better when the vegas line is applied,
the teams then combine for 10 wins, 5 covers each! The Pack hasnt been too terrible, 3-4 ATS on the road, and its not in a dome, and on Monday.
So if you are drilling through the Stats they might point to Green Bay. However even at 4-9 the Ravens have been playing much better on offense and at home
on Monday night, against the Packers Defense, the Ravens will get at least one chance to shine this season.
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BAL 21 - GB 16
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BAL 48 - GB 3 WINNER
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