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Chicago at Pittsburgh -4.5
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OK Now we are talking, the Brutal Bears take on the Slightly Slumping Steelers. The Bears have shut down just about everyone they have faced. They have won 9 in a row now, and have covered in 8 of those games. As you might suspect with the Bears they hit the UNDER in 9 of the last 10 games.
Yet even as I have been blasting their offense, however they don’t need to score very much they do run the ball and grind out the clock, punt the ball and play defense. It seems like most of the Bears scores have come from turnovers. So the key is to just protect the ball and play field position.
The Steelers also subscribe to the same formula, they don’t play games they just pound it at you also. Yet the Steelers can put up the points, and they have had to as their defense has been giving up points far more generously than Chicago. The Steelers have gone OVER in the last 5 of their games. So this will be fun to watch. Maybe not so fun if you like scoring as I gotta hunch the Defenses will dominate this one. As for me I like the bruising defense and big hits. Should be fun to watch but not fun to wager on, I hate to pick against either team, especially teams as talented as there two. So starting it off this week with a big toss up, figuring that the Steelers will find some answers against Chicagos defense, and their defense wont be as vulnerable to the long ball as they were when facing Carson Palmer and the Bengals. All streaks eventually do come to an end, and this one wont hurt the Bears too much, but the Steelers really need this one, and at home they will find a way.
************************************ PITTS 17 – CHI 15 ************************************
PITT 21 – CHI 9 WINNER/No Cover

Cleveland at Cincinnati -10.5
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Any doubts about the Bengals legitimacy were erased for me last weekend. They went into Pittsburgh and bullied the Steelers, and have
set themselves up to win the Division title for the first time Since Boomer Esiasion was the QB and they were doing the Ickey Shuffle.
Icky is the right word to describe the Cleveland Browns season. Fortunately folks in Cleveland didn’t have high expectations for this team this year.
That way they can’t be too disappointed, and as such they wont mind a peek at the future when they start homegrown former Akron Zips QB Charlie Frye this week. With Braylon Edwards tearing up his knee last week one has to wonder if there is a curse on Cleveland No. 1 picks? So it’s probably a good thing for Browns fans that they got Frye in the later rounds! Well as far as curses go the one in Cincy seems to be lifted, as they have now vanquished their arch rival and have also won 4 of the last 5 games, the only loss coming at the hands of the Colts. Not too shabby considering that team so far can’t be beat. Likewise I don’t think that Cincy can be beat this week, especially to the Browns this weekend after the all the work they have done to get themselves in this position.
************************************ CINCY 34 - CLE 10 ************************************
CINCY 23 – CLE 20 WINNER/No Cover
Houston at Tennessee -4.5
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The Texans and the Titans, Ahhhh now were talking. Once again I ask you to forget about the Marquee match ups, like Pittsburgh and Chicago, and stick to the easy ones. This one is about as easy as it gets. The Texans simply put, ARE that bad,
if anyone watched them playing Baltimore last week, well I feel sorry for them that with all the great games on, that they wasted their Sunday afternoon watching that garbage. Houston has to be the saddest team I have seen in a long time, aside from maybe the Jets. They do have something to play for still, thats Reggie Bush. I doubt they will try and mess up their chances of landing Bush this week. I know for me Tennessee was a disappointment last week, but then again no one has had much luck when going against the Colts this season. Prior to the tango with the Colts, Tennessee had covered in the two previous games. The Titans will be looking to bounce back big at home this week, and heck I could engineer a couple of TD drives against Houston’s Defense. The Titans beat down the Texans to the tune of 34-20 in Houston earlier this season, and I don’t really see how the Texans will fare much better this time in Tennessee.
************************************ TENN 24 - HOU 10 ************************************
TENN 13 HOU 10 WINNER/No Cover

Indianapolis at Jacksonville +7.5
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Some folks see this as the week Indy falls from the ranks of the unbeaten. They say Jacksonville has the horses on defense to slow the Colts offense. If Jacksonville wants to be considered an Elite team that this is a game they must win. They are divisional rivals and do know each other quite well the Jags seem to know what it takes to slow the stampeding stallions, racking up a 5-2 mark ATS in the last 7 against the Colts. However I see a level of determination and professionalism in this Colts team, that tells me not to look for a let up. If Jacksonville is going to win this game they will have to earn it. In order to earn it they will have to play much better than they did last week in Cleveland, and much better than their 2-4 ATS record in their last 6 home games. Because though the Colts may not be talking about going the entire season unbeaten, there is a very good reason why they are 12-0 and after this week the poised to go 13-0
************************************ INDY 23 – JACK 14 ************************************
INDY 26 – JACK 18 WINNER
New England at Buffalo +2.5
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The Pats did manage a big win last week, but come on, that was against the Jets. They only managed one TD against the Jets and didn’t really look dominant allowing the Jets to hang around as long as they did. While this week looks tough, the Bills can’t be feeling too good after their huge collapse in Miami last week. While the Bills are very tough up in Buffalo and especially when it’s cold. They haven’t had great success against the Patriots up there as the Pats have won 3 of the last 5 times they have met in Buffalo. Although against a depleted Patriots team, this might be one of those places where the Buffalo defense can muster up a noble effort as they did there against a very good Kansas City offense a few weeks ago holding them to only 3 points.
The stats bear that out as they New England-Buffalo games have gone UNDER in 12 of the last 13, as well 6 of the last 7 in Buffalo. So the Bills know how to defense Brady and the Pats. These divisional rivalries can get a little crazy, yet when it comes to just finding ways to win, the Pats just have that knack, and the Bills well, after last week remind us of how they are the epitome of the team with the penchant to lose.
************************************ N.E. 20 – BUF 16 ************************************
NE 35 – BUF 7 WINNER

Oakland at N.Y. Jets +2.5
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The Oh No Bowl. Who to take among these two losers, The Joakland Faders or Just End The Season. You know I actually think the Jets have a pretty good shot to win this game, I mean they do play a little defense, and that may be the only way that they can score. The Faders offense should be able to score maybe once or twice, and to be honest, I have no idea how the Jets will score. So when picking between bad and worse, I am flipping a coin and look it Its got Al Davis face on it... Yeah the Joak might be on ME again.
************************************ OAK 24 – JEST 6 ************************************
JETS 26 – OAK 10 LOSER

St. Louis at Minnesota -6.5
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So where are all the fire Mike Tice people now??? He has rallied the Vikes after the woeful start and now won (and better yet covered) the last 5 in a row. Meanwhile St Louis is officially reeling, the third string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t quite fare as well last week when they faced a real Defense. Even when you discount the backup QB factor the Rams were only 3-10 ATS in its last 13 away games. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games, and that includes a loss before Brad Johnson took the helm. The only reservation on this is that the Rams do like to play on that turf in a dome, and that road record reflects several games on grass where their team speed is somewhat neutralized. That little reservation may hold more water were the Rams at full strength, but in this condition, it would be downright foolish to pick against a red hot Viking team at home making a playoff push, especially against a team that struggled against the Texans.
************************************ MIN 30 – STL 17 ************************************
MINN 27 - STL 13 WINNER

Tampa Bay at Carolina -4.5
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Here's another very interesting match up with big divisional implications in the NFC South. The Bucs are only one game back of Carolina, and here they come a-calling into the Panthers lair.
The Panthers have dominated the recent series between these two, having won 8 of the last 10 meetings and the last 5 in a row. Carolina went into Tampa and blew them out 34-14 back in October. While the Bucs have kept pace since that drubbing, I don’t know that they are that much improved where they can
win up in Carolina, Especially against a Carolina team with the Division title clearly in their sights. The Bucs are playing a little better so it wont be as bad a rout as the first match up, yet the end result will be the same.
************************************ CAR 27 - TAM 17 ************************************
TAM 20 – CAR 10 LOSER
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia +3.5
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Wow, the way Philly played Monday night you have to wonder if all that has been going on with them, if they haven’t just packed it in. They were just taken apart, to the tune of a national humiliation, I have to admit I was bitterly disappointed by what I saw. The Giants though are one of the NFLs Hottest teams, having covered the last three straight games and 5 of the last 6. Including winning by 10 in their last meeting when they had a healthy Westbrook and Trotter playing. They are both an injury question for this game.
Does this one seem a bit too easy? Does the line seem a bit low perhaps? At this point Philly is just playing for Pride, and what better way to take the sting off a Monday night humiliation than to stick it to your rivals. The series between these two teams has seen Philly win 7 of the last 10 meetings. The Giants did win the last time they played, but Eli wasn’t looking too sharp last week against the Dallas Defense, and the G-men have struggled somewhat on the road. Take away that N.O. road game at Giants stadium, and they are 2-2 in road games this year. The special teams for the Giants have been rattled since the Seattle game. If Philly can somehow make some plays early they could easily make a game of it, and yet again I will phoolishly Predict Philly playing for Pride, to put the Monday Night embarrassment to rest with a huge effort at home where this series has witnessed some strange plays. As New York’s snakebit FG team will once again let them down in a big way.
************************************ Philly 21 – N.Y. 20 ************************************
NYG 26 - PHI 23 COVER

San Francisco at Seattle -17.5
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A juicy division rivalry between two NFC west teams. These two met a mere three weeks ago in Sand Fran where Seattle struggled but managed to come away with a 27-25 victory.
The 9ers are a respectable 5-7 ATS this year, but a paltry 1-4 ATS on the road. The Seahawks are coming into this one having walloped Philly on Monday Night Football seem to be picking up momentum after having clinched the NFC west title. They sent a message on Monday that they are the best in the NFC, even if certain so-called experts (ahem!) don’t necessarily believe it. With good reason, some might say, because though they are a solid 4-2 ATS at home, they have only covered once in the last 3 home games. So that still leaves a bit of a bitter taste to some, and having to lay 17 points you really need to account for that. Especially when you have to consider that they could very easily let up a little if this one is out of reach, and then the dreaded back door cover!
************************************ SEA 31 – S.F. 13 ************************************
SEA 41 – S.F. 3 WINNER
Washington at Arizona -2.5
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The rebounding Redskins fresh off a big road victory in St. Louis travel out to Arizona to play the Cards. The Cards come into this one with a shot of confidence after having just swept division rival San Fran for the first time ever.
However with that Niners defense that isn’t really saying very much. The Cards are only 2-4 ATS at home this year, with the last home victory back in October.
The Cards have won and covered in two of the last three games though, as Washington ended a three game losing streak last week. (yeah that means they have lost 3 of the last 4 - in case you couldn’t figure that one out on your own.) So both teams are coming in with some momentum.
Say what you will, I just can’t see myself taking the Cards again this week, even if their offense seems to be clicking. Against the Redskins defense this week, I have to believe that
they will play to that 66% trend of losing at home.
************************************ Skins 20 - AZ 19 ************************************
WASH 17 – AZ 13 WINNER
Baltimore at Denver -13.5
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This stinker just very well could be the gift of the week. The Ravens may be coming off a big win last week, but that was against Houston, and to win that game the way they did,
needing a big turnover and late game heroics from Kyle Boller doesn't exactly instill confidence in their chances of traveling out to Denver to take on a team that everyone said was the 2nd best team in the NFL.
The Broncos however are known for faltering in the waning part of the season. That is about the only reasoning I can come up with for anyone to take the Ravens.
I cant see the Ravens doing much up in Mile high, never mind covering, and winning outright... Lets put it this way, if you can find anyone to offer a ML wager on this one, taking Denver would be like printing up a batch of bills,
like they do over in the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Mint just a Jake Plummer overthrow away from Mile High.
************************************ DEN 37 - BAL 10 ************************************
DEN 12 – BAL 10 WINNER/No Cover

Kansas City at Dallas -2.5
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This should be a very interesting game as both of these teams are chasing the division leaders and as they head down the stretch there is no margin for error.
The Cowboys were beaten in New York last week in a tough defensive game. Kansas City meanwhile had to put up 31 points to topple Denver in a shoot out.
Kansas City has been playing very good solid ball as of late winning their last three in a row, and 4 of the last 5. They have been scoring an average of 33 points in each of those victories, and when you can score like that,
your defense doesn't have to be lights out to win. Dallas meanwhile has lost their last two in a row, after winning the previous three.
They are respectable at home but only 3-3 ATS in big D. They will need lots of D to slow down Kansas Citys offense. The good news is that it can be done. Buffalo shut down the Cheifs 14-3 in Buffalo 4 weeks ago, so Dallas will look to replicate that.
If you are looking for an edge in the series, these two teams dont meet up that often. The last time being in 1998, with Kansas City taking that game.
As for me I am not sold on Drew Bledsoe, and I think the love affair between Drew and Big D is starting to wane a little bit, if he has another underwhelming performance this week, and makes some big mistakes, the wheels just may fall off the wagon for Drew and Big D.
************************************ K.C. 27 – DALL 20 ************************************
DAL 31 – KC 28 LOSER

Miami at San Diego -13.5
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Well don’t look now but the "result of the game doesn’t matter" Dolphins have a two game winning streak going. They authored one of the franchises greatest comebacks
last week. In front of an apathetic crowd which was mostly disguised as empty seats when the decisive TD was scored. Too bad! Poor Phin Phans won’t be getting so fortunate this week. San Diego may be playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now, they have won 5 in a row and covered in 6 of the last 7. The Chargers should be no match for the depleted Dolphin Defense and will look silly flailing at LaDamian Tomlinson as he dances his way around them for big gains. The only problem may be the Chargers thinking about next weeks game at Indianapolis a little bit during this one and allowing a game Miami running game to get going and get a couple of long drives and use up some time and get a few scores. Something to consider before laying two TDs. However that is equally cancelled out by the fact that Gus Ferrotte will be coming back from a concussion suffered last week to take the snaps for Miami. You thought he was bad with his head on right, I can only imagine what he might be like when he’s a little woozy.
************************************ S.D. 36 – MIA 19 ************************************
MIA 23 – SD 21 LOSER

Detroit at Green Bay -4.5
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I find it hard to believe a 2-10 team installed as a 5 point favorite. Yet that’s exactly what this less-than-scintillating prime time match up offers. Both of these two stinkers offer plenty of reasons NOT to wager on them. Yet they will be the featured game on Sunday night, and if they play it, we shall pick it! You might think that the Pack at home would be a lock, however the 2-3 ATS mark on the frozen tundra doesn’t exactly indicate dominance. Green Bay has won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two, however Detroit, has covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings, including winning a 17-3 pasting back in September, albeit in Detroit. Interim coach Dick Jaron has his hands full with this group of Lions and I don’t know if he can rally them on the road. However the Packers have just as many problems on their side. The only intangible is the Farve Factor. While I have taken loads of heat for my continually picking the Pack this season, I really cant see myself taking the Lions on the road, except of course as part of some wild point-teaser sort of play. 10 points ought to be enough to make me consider the Lions, but in the end I will play to the overwhelming 80% odds and grab Brett and the Pack to even their home mark on the now frozen tundra of Lambeau field.
************************************ GB 28 – DET 17 ************************************
GB 16 – DET 13 WINNER/No Cover
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