2005 NFL PROJECTIONS

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Thursday, Nov. 24
Atlanta at Detroit +3.5

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The Thanksgiving Turkey Bowl. Set your alarm clocks folks, this one kicks off at 11:30 EDT, meaning don’t wake up at 12:30 and be miffed when you didn’t get in on this one. It looks easy enough, the high flying Falcons soar into Detroit and roll over the 3-6 lions. However the Lions have started to get some personnel back from injury and were really playing pretty good ball lately. Last week it looked like a rout, but they were in that game only down 13-7 for most of that game. Just something to keep in mind before dismissing the Lions at home on Thanksgiving day. Joey Harrington still looks shaky and against a fast furious ferocious Atlanta defense, they will be too much, even in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
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ATL 27 – DET 13
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ATL 27 - DET 7 WINNER  

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Denver at Dallas +1.5

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The other Turkey day game is definitely no Turkey. Denver brings their powerful AFC West leading running game into Dallas where the Cowboys dominated Detroit last week and are leading the way in the NFC East. Hard to really see any edge for either team in this one, Dallas is 4-1 at home having won 4 in a row there since Washington on that Monday nighter in September. Denver has been solid all year and has rolled covering their last 5 in a row. They could come into Dallas and just run all over the Cowboys like they have done to just about everyone they been playing lately. Or so everyone thinks, Denver got a great “set up” playing the Jest last week. Dallas at home on Thanksgiving will be looking to send a message to all of America. This will be the stage they do it on.
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DAL 17 – DEN 13
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DEN 24 - DAL 21 LOSER  

Sunday, Nov. 27
Baltimore at Cincinnati -8.5

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A big game in the AFC North. The Ravens come into this one with some swagger and confidence having just beaten Pittsburgh. The Ravens are also getting some guys back from injury like Kyle Boller two weeks ago but he is looking more in synch with the offense last week, and defensively they have Ray Lewis back patrolling the middle. The Bengals may be coming off a home loss, but then again everyone who plays the Colts this year has lost. The Bengals still come out of that one with a load of confidence as they feel they managed to move the ball and score along with the Colts. Baltimore has had the recent edge winning the 5 times in the previous 8 meetings, but Cincy has won the last two meetings including 21-9 in Baltimore just a couple weeks back. However there were certain Ravens that weren’t back for that game. Even with those guys back in the lineup, I just cant see how Baltimore will be able to score to stay with the Bengals.
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CIN 34 – BAL 14
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CIN 42 - BAL 29 WINNER
 

Carolina at Buffalo +3.5

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I guess I was guilty of overrating the Panthers a little last week. I should have dug a little deeper into the stats to see that John Fox has like a 6-14 record against opponents with a winning record. Although, they are 2-1 against teams with a winning record this year. Fortunately for Carolina this weekends opponent does not have a winning record. Buffalo is still stingy on defense despite getting crushed in San Diego last week. The Bills will be looking to bounce back big in front of their home fans. Especially getting a southern team up in the getting much colder confines of Buffalo. That defense could give give Carolina problems as the hits just sting that much more as the temperature drops. Although to be honest the hits from Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker will hurt just as much as any the Bills defense can dole out. The Panthers defense is healthier than the Bills at this point which is why I think the Panthers bounce back in Buffalo.
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CAR 23 – BUF 17
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CAR 13 - BUF 9 WINNER  

Chicago at Tampa Bay -2.5

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Well well well aren’t the Big Bad Bears the bullies of the NFC again. Having battered and beaten my pick for the best team in the NFC the Carolina panthers the Bears travel down to the south to play the team tied with Carolina and the Bears who also lay a claim to being the best team in the NFC. This will be another heavyweight fight and consider that the gunslingers will be Chris Simms and Kyle Orton, it may be just that a heavyweight slugfest. I should have just listened to Micheal last week and known the Bears would win. Their front 7 force things and their secondary makes plays… who cares who is at QB. Orton has done a great job as a rook, and Simms has played great ball the last two weeks giving Tampa all sorts of confidence. However Tampas defense worries me, they are a speed defense, great against guys like Vick, however against the roadgraters Chicago has upfront, with that smashmouth bring it at you attack I am going to go on the road with the Mighty Bears saying they once again bring it to the non-believers! Warning if Tampa can score TWO TDS they will win. I just don’t think they will.
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CHI 13 – TAMPA 10
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CHI 13 - TAM 10 WINNER  

Cleveland at Minnesota -3.5

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This should be a most interesting game. The Browns are clicking after a big confidence boosting shutout victory in Cleveland last week. They hit the turf in Minnesota this week. Cleveland is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 road games, but a respectable 5-5 ATS on the season. Although before last week the Browns were an unimpressive 1-4 in the previous 5 games. Minnesota however is one of the hottest teams in the NFL rolling up a 4-1 mark in its last 5 games after starting out the season cold. The Vikes have covered in the last 3 in a row, and the last two were on the road. The team really has improved under the leadership of a SuperBowl winning QB Brad Johnson, who is visibly getting more comfortable in the offense. They have talent up there, and are finally starting to capitalize on it. Minnesota has only gone OVER in three of its last 10 home games so don’t look for fireworks. However in typical fashion of late the Vikes will find a way to get it done.
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MINN 20 – CLE 14
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MIN 24 - CLE 12 WINNER  

New England at Kansas City -2.5

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The Champs visit Kansas City. The Pats own this series with a 5-1 mark against the spread vs Kansas City. New England finds itself in the role of an underdog once again this season. They have been dogs, three other times this season, and since pulling the upset in Pittsburgh way back in September have gone 0-2 both other times as a dog. Kansas City will be coming in with loads of confidence rolling up the Texans Sunday night, and it will be an electric crowd with a playoff atmosphere. The Pats defense is a shell of its former self and allowed the Saints to cover, and if not for the oh so generous Aaron Brooks tossing a pick in the endzone on the final drive, New Orleans may have pulled the upset. Tricky Dicky wont flinch and Trent Green will complete the pass in the endzone to get the W for the red guys.
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K.C. 30 – N.E. 26
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KC 26 - NE 16 WINNER  

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San Diego at Washington +2.5

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The Skins find themselves sinking quickly in the NFC East, having now dropped their last two games and 3 of the last 4. The were quashed at home by Oakland last week, and this week are a home dog getting three hosting the red hot San Diego Chargers. Fact of the matter is the Chargers are just a darn good football team, and despite Joe Gibbs best efforts, will be hard pressed to turn things around this week.
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S.D. 30 – WASH 17
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SD 23 - WASH 17 WINNER  

San Francisco at Tennessee -7.5

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The Titans were the real deal last week as they came from way back for that vaunted back door cover. While the team takes no solace in that the folks who took the Titans last week were feeling mighty. Covering against a good team like Jacksonville is usually a harbinger of good things. The Tennessee Titans have an exciting playmaker in PacMan Jones and he is starting to figure out the NFL game and make some big plays. The Niners have also been making some big plays covering up twice in a row, and giving the Seahawks all they could handle last week. This could be another one of those sorts of games as well. Hard to see a young team like Tennessee run it up on anyone, but as bad a team as San Fran has been its hard to take them on the road, even with the big point spread.
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TENNY. 27 – S.F. 17
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TENN 33 - SF 22 WINNER  

St. Louis at Houston +3.5

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Houston will have to be careful now so that they don’t wind up blowing the Reggie Bush bowl! If Houston “loses” out they will be facing much better days with Reggie Bush toting the rock for them. At least that’s something for Houston fans to look forward to. They looked pitiful Sunday night on National Television, and aside from having no offensive line, their defense looked completely inept. They do have a nice special team player. The Rams are beaten down team and lost starting QB Marc Bulger again last week, they were dealt a horrific blow by the Cardinals another perennial “wait til next year team”. The danger here is that the Rams may have ‘quit’ and that being the case, the old Irondequoit Indians could run it up on them. I don’t think so though. The Rams had some experience with Jamie Martin at QB earlier and will pound the ball all day with Stephen Jackson on the generous Houston run defense, and if you all don’t recall the look on Dom Capers face from last Sunday night. You will be reminded a plenty in this one.
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STL 37 – HOU 27
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STL 33 - HOU 27 WINNER  

Jacksonville at Arizona + 3.5

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Well old Kurt Warner finally got the Cardinal offense going again this year, and getting Anquan Bolden back from injury had a lot to do with that. The Cardinals went and got a big upset victory on the road. Now that the Cardinals are safely out of the playoff picture I think its ok for them to start winning again. The Jaguars last week were the textbook definition of why gambling is still illegal in the U.S.A. The back door cover. They had the game with Tennessee won and in hand and late in the game they were just playing out the string, and allow Tennessee a late “meaningless” score that drives some of us crazy. That makes me very leary of this one. You know my old saying of blowing the spread is a harbinger of blowing the next one… well maybe you don’t. Either way, Jacksonville who likes to play close games, will be laying big points to a confident resurgent team with darn good WRs who can score. Will make this another tough game to actually pick the Jags and lay points. I am making that my play, but I don’t like it one bit.
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JAC 24 – AZ 20
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JAX 24 - AZ 17 WINNER  

Miami at Oakland -7.5

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I really don’t know why I took the Dolphins last week. I was raking in so much picking against them the last few weeks, I guess I just figured they were due to dash that theory. Well I was wrong about them, just as I was to abandon hope in the Raiders, so they went on the road and flat out told me where I can stuff that Joakland Fader junk I came up with last week. Although truth be told the Raiders were 3-0 ATS on their last 3 road trips. Washington may have been a bit down from the big loss in Tampa and a talented Raider team took advantage. The Raiders despite being terrible can still score. The Dolphins with Sage Rosenfels at QB still can’t, and now that Zach Thomas is out on the defense I don’t know if they can stop anyone from scoring either. That is pretty much a recipe for one thing… and I wont even say it…
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OAK 37 – MIA 6
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MIA 33 - OAK 21 LOSER  

 

Green Bay at Philadelphia -2.5

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Now this will be another game well worth watching. Both these teams are now shells of their former selves. They both come limping into this one. The Eagles have crushed me now three weeks in a row. Despite my OWN declarations in the PRESEASON that the Packers were dead, I kept betting on them when they lost, and recently when they covered in 5 of the previous 7 games (before Monday Night) I was on the other side of most of those! Warnings I should have heeded. For this one, forget the trends forget the past. It’s the depleted Eagles against the crumbling Pack. I think the Philly Defense despite losing 4 in a row, and dropping an obscene 6 in a row against the spread, is really not that bad a group. They are playing hard and playing with pride, and still making big hits and plays. The Packers look heartless and demoralized, I suspect Monday may have been the fatal blow. They Pack is done they know they are done and it was painfully obvious in the second half Monday night. Just like on the craps table if you just keep betting the darn number time and time again eventually its gonna come… uhhh… Philly rallies behind McMahan and the Defense and avoids becoming the thanksgiving turkey-cheesesteak sandwich.
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PHI 24 – GB 20
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PHI 19 - GB 14 WINNER  

N.Y. Giants at Seattle -4.5

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Wow this game will be a beaut! Two big heavyweights in the NFC going at it. The Giants rebounded big from the loss against the Vikings to bring down division nemesis Philly at home last week. While the soaring Seahawks got by a feisty group of Niners on the road last week. The Giants were torched in their secondary two weeks in a row by backup QBs throwing to backup caliber WRs. Sure the Hawks looked sloppy out in San Francisco, then again so did the Giants when they were out west battling the Niners with yet another backup QB. The Giants are a surprising 3-1 on the road A.T.S. this season, and are getting a generous 4 pts in this one. However Matt Hasslebeck is no back up QB, (that would be his little brother Tim the backup QB on the Giants) and he will be out slinging to show why his team has the best record in the NFC.
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SEA 36 – NY 30
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SEA 24 - NY 21 WINNER/No Cover  

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New Orleans at N.Y. Jets -2.5

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New Orleans makes their second appearance at Giants Stadium this year, only this time they are the visitors! Well the good news for these two teams is that someone will have to win this game. The Jest right now have to be the worst team in football. They best watch out of they will play themselves out of the running for Reggie Bush! Although winding up with a Matt Lienart will hardly be considered a bad consolation prize. They could use Lienart for this one, I was told that the Jets inquired as to my availability to play QB this week, but alas I had to inform them that Thanksgiving is a big football week and I need to work hard at getting the NFL edge out to all of you! Aaron Brooks may also be in the mood for giving this week, and could turn out to be the only one in this game who can throw a TD pass to the Jets. If he doesn’t I don’t see how the Jets may get the win in this one. Let alone cover any point spread. Here’s a holiday gift to all of you, don’t bet the Jets.
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N.O. 17 – N.Y.J. 13
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N.O. 21 - NYJ 19 WINNER