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2005 NFL PROJECTIONS

For every NFL Game

2005 Issue # 8

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Arizona at Dallas -8.5

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The Cards come into Dallas on a bit of a roll having won two of their last three games after a slow start. The Cowpokes were on a roll at home, before they were swamped in Seattle last week. Last time Dallas was beaten like that they bounced back with big victories each time. This last loss couldn’t be any more heartbreaking that the Monday night loss at home to the Skins after leading by 13 for most of that one. The Cardinals are a sneaky good team gaining confidence with every start. Their WRs could give Dallas fits and make for an exciting game. Old Bill Parcells will have his men ready and prepared for the Cardinal passing game, and will control it by running the ball on offense, and taking advantage of a sub-par Cardinal offensive line by his defense. If you been following the NFL edge this pick shouldn’t come as a surprise. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Arizona, and 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games against Arizona. I can assure you I had Dallas in all 7 of those and any trend that pays 85% of the time I will bet on every time.
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DALL 24 – ARZ 13
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DAL. 34 - AZ 13 WINNER




Chicago at Detroit -3.5

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Battle for supremacy of the NFC North in a big early season showdown. The Bears have been doing it with Defense, defusing opposing offenses and running the ball with RB Thomas Jones. The Lions, well I’m not sure how they are doing it. You cant argue with the results though. Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games. However covering spreads alone isn’t good enough and Detroit made a switch Offensively. They got a spark last week when they inserted Jeff Garcia at QB and it produced a road victory. It will be much tougher going for the Lions this week, against the Bear defense who beat them down by a 38-6 score back in September. The Bears have kept the score UNDER in 6 of the last 7 games, and also 6 of the last 7 games in Detroit as well. The key to the game is Bears rookie QB Kyle Orton, he has been solid for the Bears, complimenting the running game and not making the big mistakes. How will he fare in a loud Detroit Dome, will decide this one. I personally got a lot of faith in Orton and the Bears defense, even in the Lair of the Lion.
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CHI 13 – DET 12
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CHI. 19 - DET 13 WINNER  




Cleveland at Houston -2.5

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No that is not a mistake, Houston is actually favored in this game. Must be figuring that Houston is at home. Perhaps the oddsmakers overlooked Houstons, 0-3 ATS mark at home this season, or the 1-5 ATS mark in the last 6 home games. Cleveland travels to Houston, after a tough defensive struggle losing to Detroit at home last week. They only managed 13 points in the last two games. As we might also note, Cleveland has only gone OVER once in their last 9 games(11%). So they figure this is a game that Houston actually could win. Could is the key word. Cleveland is not really a good team either, but a respectable 3-3 mark ATS. Besides, Cleveland thinks this is a game THEY SHOULD win. It might not be an attractive game, but its just the kind of game we love. Its like having a pinch hitter with a .500 average or one with a .111 average against a certain pitcher. Exactly, with the world series in town why would they care about the Texans. My money is on Romeo Crennels bunch, and the 50-50 shot, because Houston really sucks, and its probably not even a one in ten shot to win. Cleveland’s pass rush is gonna look real good tossing David Carr around. Besides do you really honestly want to bet on Houston?
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CLE. 16 – HOU. 14
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HOU 19 - CLE 16 LOSER  


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Green Bay at Cincinnati -8.5

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Green Bay could have seen their season collapse just like the game against the Vikings did last week. Cincy was also reminded painfully that they still need to stop the running game to be considered a contender. This should be a good opportunity for Cinci to get back on track, and build some confidence over wounded Green Bay team. Yeah Brett Farve could pose some problems as he is still slinging the ball around. Carson Palmer can also do some slinging, and the likes of his WRs running against the Packers secondary should be making Chad Johnson grin that big gold toothed grin. One he will no doubt be showing off a few times in the end zone for the home folks.
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CINCY 41 – G.B. 24
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CINCY 21 - GB 14 WINNER/No Cover  



Jacksonville at St. Louis +3.5

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The Jags come into the St. Louis Dome to face the rebounding Rams. St. Louis came back from a 14-7 score after three quarters to beat New Orleans last week. That should have them confident heading into this one. The Rams are now riding Stephen Jackson as their main man as they are undergoing a transformation. Gone is Mike Martz. Gone is Marc Bulger, Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce. Instead they are now a power running team with Jackson. The trouble is that they really have no defense to speak up, letting just about anyone roll up 30 to 40 points on them, they have gone OVER the projected score total in 4 of the last 5 games. The Jags, well those two Big DT love seeing the football come their way. They will relish controlling the line of scrimmage, and the game, and giving their offense plenty of opportunities against the amply generous St. Louis Defense.
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JACK. 24 – ST.L. 20
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STL 24 - JAX 21 LOSER  

 

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Miami at New Orleans -2.5

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The Hurricane bowl, last weekends Hurricane Wilma victims battle Septembers Hurricane Katrinas victims, in hurricane free San Antonio. Yee-Haw, this could shake either way, as New Orleans seems pretty comfortable and playing fairly well in San Antonio, and yet are also as self sabotaging as ever, blowing another game last week where they had a lead. Neither team has been a great bet this season as Miami after a big opening day win, has gone only 1-4 ATS since. New Orleans, not any better going 2-4 ATS in their last 6. In a dogfight like this it will really come down to which offense makes more mistakes. Miami can run the ball a little and will be well served to do so, as opponents have been running for an avg. of 150 yards per game against N.O. Keeping the Ball out of Gus Ferrottes hands will give Miami the best shot to win. While they will want Dr. Jeckyll Aaron Brooks, to play Mr. Hyde and turn it over 4 or more times a game as he has done three other times in the last 5 games. Miami will dictate with their Defense, and for once that defense will get a lead, and a chance to tee off on a QB. Mr. Brooks, wont want to play Mr. Hyde, rather run and Hide.
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MIAMI 24 – N.O. 14
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MIA 21 - NO 6 WINNER  



Minnesota at Carolina -7.5

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Well just like I called it the Vikes got off the schneid and just one win gets them back in the NFC North race. They gotta be full of confidence after their big win over a big rival like that. Still wont be enough going into the lair of the big cat. The Panthers aren’t exactly a fantastic home play, laying 8 points this time they have only covered one of their three home games this season (33%), and are 2-5 ATS (28%) in their last seven, so they aren’t exactly a lock to cover. Here’s a one trend that jumps out, Carolina has gone OVER in its last 5 games. Minnesota 0-3 on the road this season is 1-7-0 ATS in its last 8 away games. So something has got to give, and I am saying it will be that Minnesota Defense.
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CAROLINA 31 – MINN. 24
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CAR 38 - MINN 13 WINNER/No Cover  


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Oakland at Tennessee +2.5

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OK let me take a deep breath, and start off by saying I don’t have a problem, I am in Raider recovery after years of foolishly betting the Raiders to a fault. Finally I broke myself of that habit, and now the Raiders are winning again. Winning, yes, winning, and winning big, comfortably, that offense finally playing up to its potential. Oh its like poison! Then you have the Tennessee Titans just the kind of team that could spell trouble for the Raiders, a team many of their star studded roster might overlook as untalented. One in transition, yet for the Titans at home with the crowd edging them on might be looking to make a big statement, might be looking to garner some respect from the silver and black. Seems like a sneaky one, here a home dog like this. However, I just keep seeing visions of Randy Moss abusing the rookie “Pac-Man” Jones over and over again en route to another big day for the RAAAAYYYDEEEZZZZZ!!!
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OAKL 27 – TENN 20
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OAK. 34 - TENN 25 WINNER  



Washington at N.Y. Giants -2.5

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A big match up in the NFC East, both Washington and New York are sitting at 4-2 and looking to establish themselves as contenders for the NFC East this year. This will be a big test for these two rivals. The Skins came off a huge win, where they answered their critics by scoring 52 points against what I thought was a remotely decent defense in the 49ers. The Giants will be carrying in a lot of momentum themselves after the huge 4th quarter comeback victory last week against the Broncos. That Eli Manning is looking more and more like the real deal, and the message he has sent out over the last couple of weeks is, if they can get him the ball with the game on the line he CAN deliver. That is going to bode well for their defense which hasn’t been playing great, but hangs in there. Washingtons defense has been dominant, and should be able to contain Eli and the Giants, but will have to take advantage of New York’s defensive weakness and run the ball and come away with TDs early to keep running the ball and not allow Eli to have a chance to steal this one late. Sure the Giants were 5-0-0 ATS in its last 5 home games, before last weeks game against Denver, more importantly they have gone over in each of those games, including last week. While Washington is 4-2-0 ATS in its last 6 away games, and just believes they are going to win now every week. The more I see them play, the more I believe it as well.
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WASH. 33 – N.Y. 23
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NYG 36 - WASH 0 LOSER  


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Kansas City at San Diego -5.5

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I was watching the San Diego – Philly game last week among very rabid Eagle fans, and as one pointed out, San Diego can’t finish games. I thought he was ridiculous until I saw how San Diego flopped in that final few minutes. They totally self destructed. Kansas City on the other hand has the look of a team getting it together. They won despite some tough circumstances last week in a tough place. Not too surprising if you consider that Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 away games. They won with solid defense, and a effective running game, which really allowed some lanes to throw to TE Tony Gonzalez in the second half. The Chiefs are playing good ball. While as it was said San Diego has trouble finishing teams, they are still 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games. Against Kansas City the Chargers have are 4-1 ATS, and 5-2 in San Diego when pitted against the Chiefs. Sort of looks like a case of a team just having another teams number, and especially when coming home after a big loss.
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S.D. 34 – K.C. 27
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S.D. 28 - K.C. 20 WINNER  

 




Philadelphia at Denver -3.5

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Heres another top notch match up. The Eagles somehow found a way to win a big game last week and will be flying into Denver with a whole lot of momentum from that. Disguising the fact that they really have two weaknesses, running the ball, and stopping the run. Yet somehow they keep winning. Denver comes back home after a tough last second loss last week in New York. A game where they veritably dominated the ball, ran the clock ground up the yards and still found a way to lose. See despite how the breaks can seem extremely lucky its usually the usual suspects who are the beneficiaries and the same ones who are seemingly the victims. On Paper Denver seems to have the big advantage at home, however they don’t play these games on paper, and certainly there no paper to account for Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens. Denver may come out and run the ball early again, but if they cant finish and punch it in for touchdowns, they will be seeing Owens and the Eagles flapping out of Denver with another patented philly pheat!
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PHILLY 21 – DEN 19
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DEN. 49 - PHI. 21 LOSER  




Tampa Bay at San Francisco +11.5

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The Tampa Bay Bucs come into this one sporting the best record in the NFC. They visit arguably the worst team in the NFC in San Francisco. Despite that ATS, Tampa (3-3) has only won once more than the Niners (2-4) have. San Fran was pasted last week as Washington ran up 52 against them. This a mere week after Indy put 4 TDs up on em, and heck even Arizona put 30 odd points up against this defense. Because of this 8 of San Francisco’s last 9 at home have gone OVER the anticipated scores, as have 5 of the 6 Niner games this season. Don’t seem like much of a challenge for the big bad Bucs, does it. Except the Bucs come in with a new Captain, as Chris Simms takes the helm, and wait, is that Tim Rattay, the same Tim Rattay that was starting QB for the Niners just a few weeks ago backing up Simms. Could be of no consequence, although it does make for an interesting side item. Tampa has had trouble covering on the road, going 1-7 ATS in its last 8 away games. 2-5 in its last 7 out in San Fran. Despite getting whacked last week, are those exactly the type of odds you want to be betting against with a young untested QB starting on the road?
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TAMPA 20 – SAN FRAN 10
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SF 15 - TAM 10 COVER  



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Buffalo at New England -8.5

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The Bills head to New England after their first big spanking of the Kelly Holcomb Era. The Bills definitely had the look of a team that was up to something in Holcomb’s first two starts. Yet were sliced and diced by the Raiders. Buffalo will need a much better effort to rebound in New England where the Pats have really had the Bills number as of late. The Pats have won 8 of the last 10 between these two. And Buffalo is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 away games in New England. Yet this is a new year, and New England is banged up and this is a a new bunch of Bills… Bull. Brady Brady Brady. Need I say more? Lets just say the 80% track record is a little too much dominance to ignore.
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N.E. 31 – BUFF. 20
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NE 21 - BUFF 16 WINNER  

  

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Baltimore at Pittsburgh -9.5

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Oh yeah, one more game to play this week. Not much to think about with this one. Baltimore is in trouble, and that was before Ed Reed and Ray Lewis got hurt! The Steelers are a sound team and they can run that ball, which opens up the passing lanes. Getting Rothlisberger back at QB for Pittsburgh got them back on the winning track. With Baltimores anemic offense, and the number Pittsburghs defense pulled on one of the most prolific offenses the week before. Its hard to imagine how Baltimore can score on them. That being said, this may be the week Jamal Lewis gets going and the Ravens 2nd teamers, just like the St. Louis rams come out with a big game. I dont know if they can win the game, but with a 9.5 point spot, they may cover. I dont see how though, except to say that when everyone and thier brother is getting on Pittsburgh, thats always a bad sign. I will be flocking with the rest of the Fish and throwing my chips on Pittsburgh also.
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PITT 30 - Balt 9 
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PITT 20 - BALT 19 WINNNER  

 

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