2005 NFL PROJECTIONS

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Detroit at Cleveland -2.5

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An interesting match up of storied franchises. The Browns have been somewhat of a pleasant surprise this season. Even after a disappointing loss last week, I think that fans should still be pretty pleased by what Romeo Crennel has done with this team thus far. The Browns had tough games against the Bears at home and won, covered in a tough game in Indy, and went into Green Bay and beat the Packers before losing to an angry Raven team in Baltimore last week. That ended Cleveland’s three game winning streak against the Spread. The Lions are also on a bit of a run against the spread themselves. Since getting blasted by the Bears in Chicago the Lions went into Tampa and covered against the Bucs, lambasted those same Ravens two weeks ago in Detroit, and played a close one against a very good Carolina team last week. Joey Harrington has been under a ton of heat at QB for the Lions. It really isn’t all his fault as his WRs keep getting hurt. With a healthy group of Wideouts Detroit may have a shot. Without a full compliment of weapons against a relatively healthy Browns bunch in the Dog pound, I can’t call for a road upset for this Lion team.
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CLE 17 – DET 13
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DET 13 – CLE 10 LOSER  

Green Bay at Minnesota +2.5

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Here is quite the match up. Despite both teams coming into this one at 1-4 the winner can still wind up in first place in the woeful NFC North. The Packers, all but given up for dead put up a 52-3 win two weeks ago where they were 3-point favorites and easily covered the spread and the total. Perhaps announcing to the league that they aren’t quite extinguished, yet. I don’t know if I buy into that, but I am not the one strapping on the yellow helmets either. The Pack finds itself pitted against a Vikings team embroiled in controversy. Minnesota just seems like a ship lost at sea. Borrowing a cliché from their embattled “captain”, Mike Tice, the sea is mighty stormy in the twin cities. Green Bay has had the edge in this series winning 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two and going 4-2-0 ATS in its last 6 away games in Minnesota. All that is irrelevant as that was when Minnesota had a guy named R. Moss with them as well. There is that one small fact that Green Bay really does suck, and Farve is not the same QB in a dome, to consider. Embattled teams really can rally round each other at home, so that is something to consider. So is that crowd turning really ugly, really fast, if Brett comes into this one even nearly as good as his last time out and gets the Pack out front. Worse perhaps if they were to leave at halftime.
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G.B. 31 – MINN. 6
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MINN 20 – GB 17 LOSER  

Indianapolis at Houston -13.5

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If we all thought last Monday Night’s game was a mismatch what will we make of this one. For that matter folks who thought last Sunday Nights game was a mismatch, what will they make of this one. It almost seems unfair, and perhaps some books wont be taking action on this one. Or they might but at what price, will Indy be able to go out and cover another huge number on the road no less. It may stun you to know that Houston has covered in this series in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two. The last meeting Indy winning “only” by 9, 23-14 in Houston last year as a 10 pt. favorite. The time before that was even closer as Indy squeeked out a 3 pt win as a 9 pt favorite. The lines, the points, the odds. Its all so perplexing. Well as Uncle Jimmy would always say, “This sport (gaming) is really easy, don’t try and complicate it. Just bet the winners.” What was that common theme in all them stats I mentioned, oh yeah Indy winning. Besides how Awful did Houston look on Sunday night, do you really want to be taking that team?
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INDY 28 – HOU 10
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INDY 38 – HOU 20 WINNER  

Kansas City at Miami -1.5

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An interesting game for sure! Heres a big tip:If you have an “NFL Edge” T-shirt or “staff” shirt, we will have “spotters” at this game. If you are spotted wearing a “THE NFL EDGE” T-shirt, you will be given a prize on the spot. Where to get a “THE NFL EDGE” T-Shirt? Funny you should ask: CLICK HERE for Details! Oh yeah, the game. Folks Miami really isn’t that good. I think I misled everyone when it looked like I took Miami with the points last week. In reality TAMPA was the play for me, and a huge one at that – sure I bought down 2 points off that line. STILL TAMPA was my play – lets not make any mistakes about this one. KANSAS CITY wins this one easily. Do I make that clear? Analysis? Paralysis. “JUST BET THE WINNERS”, Kiddo.
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K.C. 31 – MIA 13
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KC 30 - MIA 20 WINNER  

New Orleans at St. Louis -3.5

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Don’t look now but St. Louis, many peoples pick to win the NFC West this year, ahem, is officially reeling! They have now lost 3 straight games, and even worse are a pitiful 1-5 Against the Spread. Then they lost their QB last week, and he is questionable for this one. Even more bad news for Ram fans, they have been lit up allowing an average of 42 points in those losses. Great if you are betting the Totals, as St. Louis has now gone OVER the total in 6 of their last 7. New Orleans meanwhile comes in a respectable 3-3 ATS, and getting 5 points last week covered in losing only by 3 to Atlanta. That had to have been one of the worst calls of all time on the missed field goal, and you know that was a gut wrenching loss. The Saints can’t be feeling very good going into St. Louis after that one. The Saints have also been pitiful on defense allowing 52 to Green Bay before they gave up 34 to Atlanta last week. Not all of that was on the defense though as the Saints generous offense which turns the ball over an average of 3.5 times per game, contributed to giving up some of those points. Like the Rams the Saints have gone over in 3 of the last 4 games and both their last road games. The Over may just be the best bet here.
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STL 33 – N.O. 28
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STL 28 – N.O. 17 WINNER  

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Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -1.5

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Now were talking, a great match up we can all get excited about. Anyone here still surprised by the 5-1 Bengals. They are for real in a major way. They were challenged last week in a tough place to play, yet they overcame a big lead and a fired up home team to come back and win. Pittsburgh, well not to say I told you so, as I had no idea that Ben Rothisberger wasn’t going to play last week. I would have made the same pick either way, only had I known he was out, I would have had Jacksonville winning outright. The Steelers QB situation is irrelevant this week, as I am taking the very FOR REAL Bengals, and it wouldn’t matter to me if Rothlisberger or Bradshaw was calling the signals. The only difference to be determined will be the margin, not the outcome.
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CINCY 37 – PITT 20
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PIT 27 – CIN 13 LOSER  

San Diego at Philadelphia -4.5

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A tricky pick-y for sure. I happen to think San Diego is one of the better teams in the NFL, and a win here, even with all the talk of their schedule being brutal and all that, they will be right back in the middle of the AFC Playoff picture. Not too mention the confidence of going on the road and beating the conference champs in their backyard. They already went in and ruined New England on the road this year. So there is no doubt that San Diego CAN win this game. Philly on the other hand will be very primed for this match up. Their last time out they were embarrassed by Division rival Dallas. Then they had a week off to think about that and watch Dallas stake out atop the NFC East. Philly was made to look one dimensional and were dominated by Dallas defense. So either that was a preview of things to come, and Philly really is one dimensional, or they will be out to show that last game was an anomaly, a fluke. It couldn’t happen again, not in Philadelphia that’s for sure. Yeah, Be VERY careful with this one.
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PHILLY 30 – San Diego 27
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PHILLY 20 – S.D. 17 WINNER  

San Francisco at Washington -13.5

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Here’s a not quite ready for prime time game. Looks pretty easy, the NFC West basement dwelling Niners head east to take on one of the NFCs surprise teams in Washington Redskins. The skins losers of their last two in a row, are home after a bit of a skid. They get the opportunity to rebound this week against a young struggling team. San Fran similarly to the Skins, has dropped their last 4 games. They were crushed the last two games on the road, and to the likes of Arizona, not exactly a league juggernaut. For good measure they were slammed at home by the Colts. Prior to that game the Niners had gone over their previous 4 in a row. The Colt defense ended that streak, and the Skins may just be on that level. Don’t be foolish and think San Fran stands a chance to win this one, no matter how high the odds go. Although with two touchdowns(or more!) from the books, it does stand serious consideration. The Skins are basically a defensive bunch, and even when things are going their way like to run the ball and consume time. A winning strategy, but one that doesn’t make many gamblers, especially the OVER guys, happy. My play in this one will be the Skins, but I won’t be laying more than 10 points.
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WASH. 27 – S.F. 16
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WASH 52 – SF 17 WINNER/NO COV.  

Dallas at Seattle -2.5

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Here is another exciting match up. A couple of quality teams in the NFC meet as the division leading Seahawks, take on the NFC East leaders the Dallas Cowboys. Folks who weren’t impressed by Dallas’ win last week, those folks who thought that was a “bad” football game, obviously aren’t familiar with Mr. Bill Parcells. Yeah that was just his type of game, ugly, sloppy, defensive. Keep that score down and keep running the ball and the clock. Its ugly but it wins football games. That will no doubt be the strategy yet again this week. After two big emotional division games at home, it will be interesting to see what Dallas brings with them on the road. Interesting, yes but not unpredictable. I like this match up, Seattle should scathe Dallas secondary, and get this one out of reach early. Taking Dallas out of their game is the way to beat them. If Seattle doesn’t do that Dallas can go out west and win.
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SEA. 31 – DALL. 23
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SEA 13 – DALL 10 WINNER  

Baltimore at Chicago E

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Heres a very interesting match up. The Overrated ravens come into Chicago with a chance to even up their record. The Bears can also even their record up to 3-3 with a win here. Although even at 2-3 they are still good enough for first place in the woeful NFC North. I foolishly followed the ravens and even picked them to win on the road earlier this year. Gggggggh, choked the Raven. I am not enamored with the Bears by any means. They should be a favorite at home although the Bears have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. Beleaguered Baltimore still has some nice defense and all indications are that defense is back to form after last week. The Ravens have kept teams UNDER in 11 of their last 13 road games. However Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games. The QB position remains a sore spot for both. Baltimore got improved play from A. Wright, and the Bears are still going, and winning (kinda) with rookie Kyle Orton. I am tempted to go with Baltimore on the road, saying the defense keeps the score down, an INT for a TD will determine this one. The Bears have a rock solid defense also, holding scores UNDER in 5 of their last 6. I would LOVE to take the upset in this game, however I have been burned by Baltimore one too many times this season. The Bears defense will be the ones making the statements in this game.
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CHI 9 – BALT. 6
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CHI 10 – BALT 6 WINNER  

 

Buffalo at Oakland -2.5

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Buffalo takes its 3-3 mark to Oakland to tackle the 1-4 Raiders. This one promises to be another exciting match up. Maybe a little too exciting for my blood. Although anyone following this site can tell you. I have stayed true to my word, and avoided being suckered into taking the Raiders. OK so I had a small relapse two weeks ago, but I was right about that. Which is why this is such a dangerous play. I don’t know if the Raiders mystique is effecting my analysis, but I figure the Raiders to win this game. Sure Buffalo has been pretty good in the past couple weeks. Yet I just don’t think that they are very good on the west coast. I don’t know what it will be a funny bounce, an inopportune fumble. Wait, am I really saying to take the Raiders? Over the first place Buffalo Bills… quick call the clinic, I need help, again, I not only like this game, I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME BIG… hey wait put down the phone… let me just say it…. da RAAYYYDEEEZZ!
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OAKL. 27 – BUFF. 21
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OAKL 38 – BUFF 17 WINNER  

Denver at N.Y. Giants -1.5

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WOW! Another tough game to figure. The Broncos looked horrible after the first week of the season losing in Miami. However they have yet to taste defeat again. They come into this one after a convincing victory against the champs, New England, last week. The Giants who looked absolutely awful on Defense were bested in OT last week after a defensive struggle. Their mighty formerly NFL Leading offense was diffused by Dallas. The Key to this one will be the Denver running game against the Giant defense. If the Giants get a few big plays early and jump out front as they have in their other victories, they can take Denver out of their running game and force Jake Plummer to try and beat Eli Manning in a shoot out. Which I don’t think he can do. However the best defense is a good running game. Denver runs the ball on everyone, and will continue to do so against New York’s porous defense. The Giants are reeling a little after a tough overtime loss like they had last week in Dallas. The Giants left lots of points on the board in that game, and if they do that against Denver they will find themselves playing from behind again. Frustrated, and watching the Denver running game ground out 5, 6, 9 yards a carry, right up and down the field.
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DENVER 23 – NYG 21
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NYG 24 – DEN 23 COVER  

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Tennessee at Arizona -2.5

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This could be quite an entertaining game even among a couple of early season dogs. Sure neither of these two teams are on anyone’s glamour list, but the Cards do boast the league's no. 2-rated passing game. The Titans have also been averaging almost 24 point per game in their last 5. Also take a look at Tennessee going OVER in all 3 of its road games this season. That and lack of quality D-Backs on both teams should promise lots of scoring. The Cards at 1 win vs 4 losses both straight up, and against the spread this season, are a bit of a disappointment. Although they have looked much improved in their last couple of games. The team is really starting to rally behind now starting QB Josh McCown and they still have a decent front 7 on defense. The 1-4 record and 1-2 at home (although that one win was in Mexico!) don’t show it but Arizona has been really solid going 11-5 in their last 16 home games. I cant believe I am actually doing this, after being burned earlier in a similar spot, I am taking the Cards to stifle Steve McNair and the Titans and even up their home mark on the season, and dare I even say this laying the points. Never a very good combination!
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AZ 27 – TENN 23
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AZ 20 – TENN 10 WINNER