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2005 NFL PROJECTIONS

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2005 Issue # 6

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Carolina at Detroit -2.5

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Well I was fooled by Detroit last week pretty good. They had successfully duped me into thinking they were inept, then they went and lit up Baltimore for 35 points. In comes Carolina another team I perceived to be one of the better defensive teams in the NFC. Yet the Panthers games have gone OVER 4 out of 5 times this year. The Panthers have struggled defensively this year, They covered last week in Arizona one of the few times that they have done that on the road, and one Analyst I heard said they suck on the road, as I looked it up on EXTREME NFL MATCH UPS and was surprised to see that Carolina has an 12-2 ATS mark in their last 14 road games. I don’t like the Lions at all this week and am not really pinning much on them in this one. However after last week, perhaps Mariucci is finally getting some offensive things working. That may be good enough, for the first place Lions, but Delhomme and the Panthers can also bring a little offense of their own to this one.
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CAROLINA 27 – DET 26
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CAR 21 – DET 20 WINNER  




Cincinnati at Tennessee +2.5

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So the Bengals aren’t going to go 16-0 this year. No biggies, losing in Jacksonville to the Jags is not the end of the world. Cincy is still 4-1 (4-1 ATS) and in first place of their division. Tennessee also comes into this one after a strong showing on the road. However that was in Houston, and the Texans aren’t very good. Don’t tell that to a confident young Titan team sporting A 3-2 ATS mark thus far and feeling pretty good about their chances in their home park. Coach Jeff Fisher has gotten surprisingly good play from some young guys, and young confident guys are always dangerous to go against. Especially when you look at the success he has had against Cincinnati. The Titans have gone 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. I don’t think that matters as Cincy is a different team now, and I think they are looking for a big bounce back after their Sunday night road loss. They will spread out the young Titans DBacks, creating match up problems with the likes of Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadeh, and Chris Henry against young inexperienced Defensive backs. Carson Palmer should find plenty of one-on-ones that will lead to quick scores. Unless they realize they are the Bengals and allow the ghosts of riverfront past to possess their bodies, Cincy wont lose this one.
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CINCI 34 – TENN 23
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CINCI 31 – TEN 23 WINNER  




Cleveland at Baltimore -4.5

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Cleveland was one of the few bright spots I had last week, and honestly was my best bet in the 1 o’clock games. As their 3-1 ATS mark will indicate. Dilfer although throwing two picks last week, still got the job done. Defensively Cleveland had lots of question marks, but so far Romeo Crennel has seemed to come up with several answers. Baltimore has been one of the bitter disappointments for me, both last week and this season, as their 1-3 (1-3 ATS) mark will indicate. They really do appear much worse than what I had anticipated. They are huge up front, but cant muscle people around. They are supposed to have this great defense, yet a wounded anemic Lions team puts up 35 on them. They do have the QB problem, given, but what about Jamal Lewis. Why is this guy so ineffective all of a sudden? So a game like this defies all logic and all the experts as Baltimore will not only win this game, but look like an offensive juggernaut doing so. Think that’s crazy? The stats can bear that out as Baltimore has gone OVER the total 4 of the last 5 times they hosted the Browns.
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BALT 30 – CLEV 17
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BALT 16 – CLE 3 WINNER  


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Jacksonville at Pittsburgh -3.5

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If you know about Jacksonville, and how I have been touting them for the last two seasons then last Sunday nights game was no surprise to you. The Jags win on defense, and that’s how they shut down one of the leagues best offenses last week and that’s why at 4-1 ATS and that’s why you should dig the Jag too. On the other hand if you been following this site you might even think I was a Steeler hater, I pick against them so much. Perhaps its that I am just not really a big Roethlisberger fan. Maybe I just don’t like that they wear yellow pants. Whatever the case, I find myself not picking the Steelers very often, and very often losing. That might be the case yet again. I don’t suppose that getting thumped taking the Chargers has swayed me at all. I think Jacksonville with those two big DT’s they have will stuff the Bus and the run, and when teams do that I think Pittsburgh is in trouble. They are at home and should be pumped up after their big Monday night win. However when I look at the stats I see that Jacksonville has had a decisive edge. Though having split their last ten games, the Jags have covered in 7 of the last 9. The more I think about that the more I really like Byron Leftwich and the Jags to hang with the Steelers, and this week it will be the Jags with the ball and the chance to steel one on the road at the end, and with 3.5 wont matter if they get it or not.
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PITT 27 - JACK 26
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JACK 23 – PITT 17 COVER  



Miami at Tampa Bay -4.5

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Tampa fell from the Ranks of the unbeaten, while Miami fell out of first place in the AFC East. This should be an interesting game between these cross state rivals. If for nothing else this game marks the return of Ricky Williams for the fish. That wont really be the big difference maker everyone thinks, although it does add to some of what Miami can do. Tampa still wins games with defense and running. Will they be running the Cadillac this weekend?? Lots of action on this game – most of which is on Miami. While I am intrigued by the Phins, especially in light of a pretty good second half comeback last week. The Ferrotte factor with 3 INTS last week, as well as all the heavy action on Miami this week shies me away. Even with the Ricky Return and all I say Tampa is the play. The Bucs haven’t really covered on anyone, are only 2-3 ATS, while Miami is 2-2 winning at home losing on the road. The Dolphins may feel quite at home across the big swamp from where they play and might get the running game going some. In the end I think it will come down to which QB makes the big mistake, and there is the Ferrotte Factor again. Of no real consequence is that Tampa leads the cross state series 2-0, but the last time they met was in 2000. This game is probably not the slam dunk I think it is, but still one of my better plays for this week.
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TAM 16 – MIA 13
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TAM 27 – MIA 13 WINNER/No Cover  

 

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Minnesota at Chicago -3.5

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Another tough match up. Anyone following this site will tell you I am high on the Vikings, to a fault. I was also high on the Bears early on. But I was off that last week. This one just has me wringing my hands. Bears, solid defense, home, even if healthy the Vikes can’t stop anyone. YET ON THE OTHER HAND…. VIKES, D. Culpepper – he can get hot and light it up, Bears offensively challenged, rookie at QB… I mean the safe pick is the Bears at home with the proven defense. The last three years between these two has seen the home team win each time. Chicago has covered the last three meetings between these two. A rested Viking team who I still think has a bunch of talent though, and given the extra week to prepare for Chicago may be trouble. The Bears might dominate the ball, dominate the clock, shut down the Vikes and still only be up 6-0! Meaning the Vikes could have the ball with a shot for one of those crazy late game comeback wins. Or they could just lose it 6-0. Am I really saying to take The Vikes as a road DOG? Sure I love bucking the trends!
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MINN 14 – CHI 12
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CHI 28 – MINN 3 LOSER  



N.Y. Giants at Dallas -3.5

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Ohh a tantalizing match up. The way I got buried on Dallas last week, it would be foolish to go against that. However here come the NY Giants, and for every reason I liked Philly last week I like the Giants this week. Yada, Yada, Strahan, and Giant Pass rush vs Dallas’ slow O-Line, with slow footed QB. Suspect Dallas secondary, meet Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress, here’s a little J. Shockey and some Tiki Barber in the mix, …whatever. I learned that lesson last week. For good measure the Giants are like 0 for everygame after a bye(3-14 actually), and like a 20% mark in Texas stadium (Actually Dallas are 5-2-0 ATS, 74% in their last 7 home games against New York). I know this ain’t your fathers New York Giants anymore… blah blah blah. Giants Defense has averaged giving up 450 yds per game and ranked next to last in the league. That don’t win many games. Dallas fans I hear you! Same reasons as last week, RIGHT pick this week.
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DALLAS 33 – NEW YORK 27
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DAL 16 – NYG 13 WINNER/No Cover  


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Washington at Kansas City -4.5

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After being one of the last of the unbeatens Washington visits Kansas City where. I realized last week even while Washington was losing to Denver, that this team is for real. Something really funny has happened, QB Mark Brunell flashed back to the Brunell of 5 years ago. He hit a couple long balls to Santana Moss in Dallas a few Mondays back, and now the whole team is now filled with confidence. That comeback against Dallas was a season changing event. Suddenly an offense playing with confidence is opening holes where there were none. RB Clinton Portis is hitting the holes harder anticipating a hole being there. The defense now feels they aren’t "alone" and have taken it up another notch. Funny things about teams playing with confidence, is that they think they can win games. I hardly think losing to Denver last week diminished any of that. That being said, I am going with the Chiefs at home. Yeah they got smoked the last two times out, getting rolled up on Monday night by that same Denver team. Grabbing a big lead vs Philly at home only to squander it. I think this is a bad spot for the Skins against a desperate team, who will have to get it rolling. Washington is tough, hot and confident they covered the last three in a row and it might be the Redskins hitting the target once again in Arrowhead.
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KC 37 – WAS 12
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KC 28 – WAS 21 WINNER  



Atlanta at New Orleans +3.5

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BE WARY OF THIS GAME. Yeah I know New Orleans looked like GARBAGE last week in Green Bay. It was like a time warp I haven’t seen the Packers play like that since the mid Nineties. Well the easiest thing to do is totally put that one on New Orleans, that they really suck eggs. Then figure that they lost a major offensive weapon in Deuce McAllister last week. So that means that they should be even worse this week, if that could be possible. Atlanta still looked good even with a backup quarterback albeit in a losing effort at home. So the easy pick here is Atlanta. That’s why I am wary, rarely is anything in the NFL as easy as it looks. The Saints are Jekyll and Hyde, and are just as capable as putting up 40 as giving up 50 – Even without Deuce. Last year the Saints beat the Falcons by 12 in New Orleans and covered on them as a 9 pt underdog in Atlanta(losing by 3). This is a division game so these two know each other pretty well. I still like Atlanta – but we all saw what happened to all those road teams I took last week didn’t we. So be wary!
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ATL 23 – N.O. 20
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ATL 34 – N.O. 31 WINNER  


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N.Y. Jets at Buffalo -2.5

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Ah-ha both my “do-over pick” teams from last week meet this week. Both of these two made mid week QB decisions that made me rethink my initial picks. I was right in both cases as both of these two are better with the new guy. In the Jets case the new guy, is the real old guy Vinny. I knew he would come in and get the ball downfield. He is still Vinny, but with that defense he only needs to complete one or two big ones to give his team a shot. Likewise in Buffalo where I felt the only thing holding that team back was the inexperience of JP Losman. Now with Kelly Holcomb, a proven NFL starter in there, that was a whole different team last week. So Buffalo in all their wisdom, and just ask their fans about the “Music City Miracle” Playoff game from a few years ago. Decide to pull a page from their illustrious history, and once again hand the team back to JP Losman. Figuring that with the Jets and their struggling offense, this is a nice opportunity to get Losman some of that experience. Even in victory I was none too impressed by Buffalo, especially in the second half. Were it not for a Rookie fumbling in the waning minutes, the Bills may have very well lost last week. Curtis Martin wont be so generous, neither will Vinny. However in a move that just boggles my mind, I am still taking Buffalo, figuring maybe the coaches are just trying to trick us again and will once again insert Kelly Holcomb into the game to get Buffalo the win.
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BUFF 17 – NY JETS 16
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BUF 27 – NYJ 17 WINNER/No Cover  

 




San Diego at Oakland +1.5

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This could easily be the most entertaining match of the day. The high powered chargers, fresh off a big Monday night home loss, visit the now resurgent Raiders. The Raiders not only went in and covered in Philly three weeks ago, but also went and beat down Dallas, in a defensive struggle no less the week before their bye. By my accounts (A.T.S.) that is a two game winning streak! I mean I did pick the Raiders two weeks ago, and actually won on that game. What am I thinking though, it’s like in a crapshoot, just cause I hit the “Yo” once – Its foolish to expect to nail it for a second straight time. Let alone against an angry high powered Charger team that lit up New England and New York, before Monday night. They should get back to business this week against the Raider “D”!
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S.D. 38 – OAK 26
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SD 27 – OAK 17 WINNER  




New England at Denver -2.5

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OH here we go, Denver gets the champs, reeling sure but with plenty of life up in big D where they are just on a different level. Great game for the Broncs to earn a bunch of respect and to immediately go from afterthought to serious AFC contender. At home no less, where its already snowing. That doesn’t seem to bother Brady as the Pats – who were beaten at home, but have road wins in Pittsburgh, and in Atlanta. This one has a little different feel to it though. Denver is out for respect in this one, and are physical on both sides of the ball. You can add Richard Seymour as one more key player to the Pats injured list, and that stuff will catch up with you even if Brady is your QB.
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DEN 27 – N.E. 23
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DENV 28 – N.E. 20 WINNER  



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Houston at Seattle -8.5

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Now here is a prime time match up that everyone is going to get excited about. The 0-4 Texans visit Seattle, in a game likely to showcase the offensive might of Seattle. The Hawks should be plenty juiced for this one, and as a lead in they finally won a game on the road last week. They should run away with this one at home, as the Texans haven’t really been a tough match up for anyone yet. Although funny things tend to happen on prime time. Especially with games that just seem to easy! It wouldn’t be past Seattle to pull a lame effort in a game that they feel they have already won. That usually fuels the opposition to play way over their heads. That is all well and good but realistically this will just be a showcase for the Seahawks. Practically meaningless except those of us who will be “chasing” all our other lousy picks.
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SEA 31 – TEXANS 13
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SEA 42 – HOU 10 WINNER  

  

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St. Louis at Indianapolis -13.5

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Some weeks It seems I pick the wrong way on everything, Then there are weeks like this one, where it feels like every play is a winner. A solid week, and a solid Sunday, and for once in forever it seems I am actually up nicely going into the night game. Won’t be making a huge play on Sunday night, and I like that game much more that this one. The best play may be to stay off this one altogether – especially if you are also up a little. I mean the Rams can score, and indoors in a dome is going to feel pretty good for these guys no matter which dome they are in. I am a firm believer that you don’t lay more than two scores to any NFL team unless they flat out suck. The Rams aren’t good, but they don’t flat out suck. Certainly a better team than spotting them double digits, even in Indy. That’s why I DON’T like this game. I really like Payton and the Colts, and am thinking that this team could very well light up anyone. They could also be just as content to win by say 3 as they would to win 8, 9, or 10 points. It could easily be 35-14 the Rams get one easy against an indifferent defense, and then the deuce, as time expires, 35-22; Right, turn out the lights the party’s over. Take Indy in a ML or tease If you can, if you cant, just don’t put so much on this that you still come out down in the end!
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COLTS 35 – St. Lou 20
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INDY 45 – STL 28 WINNER  

 

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