2005 NFL PROJECTIONS

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Baltimore at Detroit -1.5

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The Ravens finally got off the schneid last week, and got an ugly win against the Jets. However that is the formula for the Ravens. Defense and running game. Although Jamal Lewis really has not been anywhere near the dominant back he was, at least thus far. Still getting the win will do wonders for Baltimore. Detroit, well they lost again, however they did cover, and lay waste to what would have been a sweet parlay play for me. That being said they still have problems, although I have found covering spreads one week is usually a harbinger of an imminent victory. Against a punchless Raven offense it’s possible – especially should Detroit get an early score or two, and force Baltimore to give up the running game. Possible, yes but not a play I will be making.
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BALT. 15 – DET 14
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DET 35 - BAL 17 LOSER  

Chicago at Cleveland -2.5

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A couple of teams coming off bye weeks. The Bears have to still be considered one of the leagues surprises. Despite only being 1-2, they are 2-1 ATS, which is near and dear to a gamblers heart. Since they are in woeful NFC North the Bears are actually still tied for the division lead. Cleveland has also got to be considered a surprising team. Romeo Crennel an old Bill Parcells disciple has instilled discipline and despite the critics has gotten really good play from his revamped roster. Cleveland is also 2-1 ATS, and in the dog pound this week will make it rough on Bears rookie QB Kyle Orton. Trent Dilfer is a much better QB than people realize, despite Chicago’s rough defense the Browns at home will connect on enough plays to even up their mark.
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CLE 19 – CHI 16
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CLE 20 - CHI 10 WINNER  

Miami at Buffalo -3.5

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Don’t look now, but the Dolphins sit alone atop the AFC East. Nick Saban has injected new life to the team that was run into the ground by “the mustache”. The Dolphin Defense remains solid, and the offense is steady under veteran QB Gus Ferrote. He is not spectacular but he is making plays in the offense. Miami has the weapons on offense to make some noise, as long as Gus keeps on getting them the ball. The Bills after a promising start have degenerated to a 1-3 mark. They figure for a big bounce back effort at home. They have dominated Miami up there over the years, and are counting on another big game to get them back on track. Buffalo has won the last two meetings handily beating the spread both times out. Problem though is the loss of defensive leader Takeo Spikes. Sure they still have a solid defense around him, but you cant replace a guy like that. The other problem is that Miami still has a very good defense – one that can possibly rattle rookie Buffalo QB JP Losman. He has been making many mistakes that haven’t helped out that now depleted Buffalo defense. If they can’t get to Losman, the Miami secondary can be beaten, and if anything at home in Buffalo might be the place to do that. I haven’t seen Losman pick anyone apart yet, or show he can figure out what these defenses are doing to him. Until I do, I wont be making that pick. Picking Miami to win in Buffalo is a crazy! Almost as crazy as the other guys in the Casino said I was when I put some coins down on S.D. Straight up to win in New England last week. It was a crazy pay-off last week, and I gotta hunch this lunatic is gonna be counting his cash again this week.
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MIAMI 20 – BUFF. 19
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BUFF. 20 - MIA 14 LOSER  

New England at Atlanta -2.5

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Wow this is a tough, tough match up. The Champs look to be in a bit of trouble after getting rolled up at home last week (and who done told ya about that one!) It wont get any easier as Atlanta has looked impressive especially on defense. Yeah Tom Brady is the man, but half his o-line is a bunch of untested rookies against what has been at times a dominant Atlanta defensive front. Micheal Vick again is a question at QB but is there any doubting Atlantas running game. Without defensive leader Rodney Harrison I think the Pats secondary is vulnerable. Still with Brady in the game New England can’t be discounted, especially as an underdog. The Falcons are for real though and rightfully favored. This will be another great opportunity for the Falcons to make a statement, again.
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ATL 34 – N.E. 20
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NE 31 - ATL 28 LOSER  

New Orleans at Green Bay -2.5

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Green Bay is 0-4 and reeling. Despite a gutty second half comeback on Monday night they still came up short. Brett Farve did about all he could to single handedly try and do it for the Pack, but it wasn’t enough. You can bet this will be a big game for them in Green Bay. They can’t fall to 0-5 now can they? New Orleans though – they have evened up their mark after a very tough road. That’s the key after three straight road games, New Orleans was in a real home last week, finally a sense of belonging a sense of comfort. So going on the road again wont be that big a deal to this bunch, especially now that they know they have a home to come back to in San Antonio and have some semblance of Saint Sanity. Although the Pack is a wounded animal with a ultra-determined Brett Farve at the helm, that makes them very dangerous. I hate having to pick against Brett especially at home. But I don’t know that they have the horses to shut down the Saints WRs. If Brooks just doesn’t get crazy with the Turnovers the Saints can come “home” to San Anton with a winning record.
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N.O. 31 – G.B. 30
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GB 52 - NO 3 LOSER  

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Seattle at St. Louis -2.5

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Seattle once again proved they can’t win on the road. No matter what happened in the game, yeah it was close, and could have gone either way sure. Yet the outcome was once again a road loss. The Rams were slaughtered up in New York. They were just lit up by a pretty good Giant team coming off a pasting the week before. Hmmm where have I heard that one before, a team goes out on the road and gets pasted then comes home and has a big day. Sound familiar. Also throw in that St. Louis swept away Seattle last year, and my case for this pick one is quite clear.
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ST. LOUIS 27 – SEA 23
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SEA 37 - STL 31 LOSER  

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Jets +2.5

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I had to delay putting out this weeks issue because of this game. I had to rethink this one. Sure Tampa is 4-0 and they are a solid group, but they have had trouble covering. And haven’t looked great on the road – even in victory. This is a tough match as New York is a desperate team. They have a solid defense, and I just heard that The Cadillac may not play for the Bucs. That makes it trickier. Laugh all you want about Vinny and the Jets but he does bring experience and will throw it up to the Jets wideouts, who can make some plays. I don’t know that the Jets can’t win this game. I am still going with my initial pick in this one, as Tampa will get it done, but I wont be surprised if the Jets can sneak in a big game here.
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TAMPA 20 – JETS 17
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NYJ 14 - TAM 12 LOSER  

Tennessee at Houston -2.5

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Tennessee at Houston, the stinker special. A couple of struggling teams from the AFC south. Houston is still seeking its first win, while foiling all sorts of folks parlays last week they covered in Cincy for the first time this year. That is usually a harbinger of good things as this could be a spot where the find their first victory. Houston is saddled with the 32nd-ranked offense and averaging just 8.0 PPG, the Texans' offense needs to give its defensive unit some help Sunday in order to have a chance against the Titans. As far as Houston is concerned this is a very winnable game for them as they have beaten Tennessee the last three times they met. However that was last years Texans and this years version don’t appear to be even that good this year. Tennessee is still young and unpredictable, but they might feel like this is a good spot for them to get their second win. I don’t like this match up at all, but when I gotta look to where to lay my cash, I am going with the wiley veteran Steve McNair and the Titans.
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TENN 17 – HOU 16
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TENN 34 - HOU 20 WINNER  

Indianapolis at San Francisco +13.5

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Ahh the Niners. Quite the tease they are, just when I think I got them figured out, just when I think that they have a decent defense on that team. They give up 31 unanswered points to the Cardinals, with a back up QB at the helm. Maybe it was a case of Montezumas revenge, or some bad Tamales last week. This week, they get arguably the best team in the league in Indianapolis. The Colts suckered everyone in with their early season slow start offensively. Then last week we say the offensive explosion we were expecting all year. Was that a case of Tennessee being much worse than anticipated defensively? Actually I think it was more a case of the Colts just waking up offensively. They looked pretty good on the road last week. Even though they are doing back-to-back roadies and on the west coast on grass. Do you want me to tell you that Payton Manning and company will be bested by Alex Smith making his first start for the Niners? Hardly.
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INDY 27 – SF 10
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IND 28 - SF 3 WINNER  

Carolina at Arizona +1.5

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Here is an interesting match up. The so-called sleeper pick Cardinals, finally got their first victory of the season. They get a visit from Carolina where they will find a Panther team, coming off a big confidence boosting Monday night victory over the Packers. There is a concern for Carolina, as in the second half the Carolina defense looked to be the ones worn down – by the Packers patchwork protectors of Brett Farve. Farve seemed unstoppable in the second half and they seemed like they could exploit Panthers 2nd year DB Chris Gamble at will. It sure looks like the Cards with their strength clearly being at WR with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin could also take advantage of that all day. Personally I done been burned by Arizona one too many times to make that call, as tempting as it is. I am going with Carolina, but as I indicated if Josh McCown picks up where he left off in the second half of last Sunday nights game, it could be Arizona will have itself a winning streak. Again I think I have to see that to believe it.
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CAROLINA 30 – ARIZONA 28
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CAR 24 - AZ 20 WINNER  

 

Philadelphia at Dallas +2.5

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This here is a really big game for the NFC East. The Eagles will come into this game with all kinds of confidence combing back from being down 17 in Kansas City to win that game. The Cowboys may be a little stunned from the failed comeback in Oakland. It seems like an easy slam dunk sort of game, as Philly has blown out Dallas in 6 or the previous 8 meetings of these two teams. However a funny thing happened in the last face off between these two. Dallas done went and covered up in Philly in a game that Philly needed a late score to win. Even in Dallas’ losses this year they have been in the games until the very end where if they could have made a play they would have won the game. That and the home field should bode well for Dallas fans. However after this one I think it will be clear to all America what I have been saying since the PRESEASON PREVIEW ISSUE Beldsoe is not the Answer at QB for Dallas.
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PHILLY 30 – DALL 16
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DAL 33 - PHI 10 LOSER  

Washington at Denver -6.5

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OK People who say I am a Bronco hater, take note. I don’t know that Washington is as good as people might think based on three wins. They were rather fortunate to win last week, seems to me that’s what I said about the Skins the week before as well, and we all know how that turned out. Eventually these breaks they have been getting will even themselves out. When I look at Denver I can’t really figure them out. I don’t think that they are a very good team, and yet they go out and play very good football. They run the ball, and their defense – save week one – has been much better than expected. The Skins offense has just been good enough the past few weeks but will need to be better than that, as Denver has been able to score a bit lately and were really impressive last time at home. I believe that trend will continue, despite Washingtons savage defense. The Broncs will again inexplicably score and inexplicably win.
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DENVER 23 – WASH 14
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DEN 21 - WASH 19 WINNER/No Cover  

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Cincinnati at Jacksonville -2.5

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Here’s a big, big test for Cincy, perhaps some of us were a little too quick to say they are for real. Perhaps I was one week late in getting on the wagon. Whatever the case Cincy blew up a lot of folks last week when they couldn’t put away Houston. Still a win is a win, and a 4-0 mark is nothing to sneer at. But I think that a very good Jacksonville team is too good to lose two in a row at home. Especially on a big prime time match up. I think that Cincy is legit though, and they may just go in an keep on doing what they have been doing, winning. Winning a big one on the road on prime time might be Cincys official coming out party as a contender. Still even with a 4-1 mark after this one will still have Cincy in solid shape. No one goes unbeaten, although a very good team can win a big road game like this. These crazy Sunday night games just about anything can happen. It might be fun to take Cincy with some more points. But something tells me Cincinnati wont be unbeaten come week six, that something will be the Jacksonville defense.
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JACKS. 23.55 – CINCY 21
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JACK 23 - CIN 20 WINNER