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Greggy the Greek's: NFL Edge

WERE BACK!! Sure why not, Preseason Football!! Others RUN from Preseason games, and cower, while I say the PRESEASON IS MORE PREDICATBLE Than the PLAYOFFS! Despite the lackluster beginning, we can take some positives from it and the other games in that it shows me a TREND.

This time of year its as good a handicapping method as any.

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Well did some more digging, through STATS and it turns out - COACHES OVERALL RECORD IN THEIR DEBUT GAME WITH A NEW TEAM IN PRESEASON IS OVER 70%!!

So looking at this and thinking about my last pick. I bucked the trend, figuring it was the "obvious" play and thought that Shannahan as a "dog" was a stronger play. And yet the New Coaches debut with new team. SO FAR 2 - 1

...uhh thats 67%

Right so that 67% I pointed out thus far is right in line and even BELOW AVERAGE....
RIGHT BELOW AVERAGE, SO THAT MEANS Other Coaches Debuting this weekend:

RIGHT THERE YOU ARE LOOKING AT THREE ARE LIKELY WINNERS....

Hmmmmm Lets see now:
 

 

Kansas City +1.5 vs NY Giants -1.5

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This line has been all over the board! I think my posting this info here in some FORUMS somewhere may have effected the lines. [Awfully arrogant no?] Giants were favored by three, yet they have big questions marks on the offensive line. Now Im back peddling on it again I think Coughlin, another Parcells protege, subscribes to that win or else theory. This is his "debut" game with the Giants, they will be looking at both Warner and Manning, well into the third quarter. Figure K.C. knows what its got offensively and the big weapons will be sittin out early as Vermeil is not as much of a pre-season coach. K.C. struggled defensively last year, and will probably be looking at lots of guys out there tonight. They have more front line talent than NY but the indicators and trends point to the Giants.
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Gints 24 - KC 20
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NYG 34 - KC 24 Winner
 

Dallas at Houston E

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This one is all about Dallas and Parcells, Sure Houston will be playing, and Capers no doubt wants to start off on the right foot. The whole Quincy Carter thing, has tensed things up in Cowboy land, and while they may not admit it, theres pressure to win THIS GAME, Parcells will no doubt be looking to win. For no other reason except to prove to his team that they can win without Carter. I also got a bird told me the third string QB Tony Romo has looked good in camp, and wouldn't surprise me to have him lead them to two scores in the big decisive 4th qtr Rally.
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Dall 16 - Hous 14
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Hou 18 - Dall 0 LOSERS
 

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Oakl. at San Fran E

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Heres another case of a Coach making his preseason debut. (HINT: If you can read between the lines here you can ACTUALLY get another two picks, see!) I don't really see any other of the debut coaches to get excited about, outside of possibly Dennis Green. Here the Norv Turner era of Raider football begins. Gannon wont play too much tonight, but you might expect a to see a nice game out of Kerry Collins who is no doubt going to be making a case that he should be starting. The Niners are dangerous though as they could be fired up to show the home fans that they wont be pushovers this year, but my play here is of course, DA RAYDEZ
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Oakl. 30 - SF 24
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Oakl. 33 - SF 30 Winner  

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COACHES

When it comes to preseason the only KNOWN thing about Preseason games is the Coach. They do have distinctive styles. Some guys PLAY THESE GAMES TO WIN. THey may do so with BACK-UPS but it helps to know who is actually TRYING to win and who is just enjoying another day on the job (while hes got it) Other guys who really are clueless, and could care less about preseason. They rarely if ever play starters and if they find themselves in a situation like Denver was, (in last Monday nights Hall of Fame game) Scoring a TD and trailing by two - these guys would just kick the extra point and end the game rather than to play for 2 and OT.

So it helps to know WHO these guys are and THAT will lead to $MONEY$ in the PreSeason.

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Bottom Feeders

Guys like Marv Levy, and Jim Fassel, they routinely go 0-4 in 1-3 in the preseason, and could care less about exhibition games. Here's a few NEW VERSIONS of these guys:

Dave Wannstedt - a career 40% record in the pre-season, he is considered a preseason mush - bet against him and you got 60% chance of winning. Lately with Miami he's had veteran teams and he rarely plays them more than a series or two - last game before regular season he's almost a lock to lose. Ah, but watch out for this - Vegas catches these trends too, and lately has been pinning his team as underdogs, AS AN UNDERDOG Wannstedt is 14-8 or 64%, also to note Wanstedt is about 30% at home and 50% on the road, so as a road dog...
Anyway he's solid guy to bet against.

Steve Mariucci - Even "better" career 38% record in the pre-season, he is considered another solid guy to bet AGAINST. Especially if you have to take points, a 3-10 record 23% against the spread as favorites, you definitely wanna grab any dogs playing his teams. Caution though - as Detroit still has a young team, he has been playing front line types more since being with the Lions. Ultimately the guy could care less about the final score(in pre-season), and it shows!

Herman Edwards - A somewhat less tenured guy yet his 39% (9-14) winning percentage in the pre-season is of note. Curiously enough, he is 5-1 as a road underdog. Take that out of the mix and his win percentage drops down to 23% If that holds up this year there's some coin to be made on that!

Andy REID - Although not quite in the category of these other guys, and he has had a lot of depth in his tenure as a head coach. This leads to a respectable 10-9 preseason mark - barely over 50% but what's curious is the home record, 2-7 (22%) and compared with the 8-2 (80%) road mark in the preseason, definitely some trendy stuff there.

The Sharks

These guys want to win, anyway, any chance, anyhow. Losing in any form is akin to kissing Saddam Hussein after they found him in that cave, pretty ugly!

Bill Parcells - the Godfather. Hes on record saying he wants to WIN! "If were playing a game, I want to win." He believes only in winning. With the Giants he was known to play starters like Phil Simms into the third quarter. He believes it sets the tone and attitude for his players. LOSING IS NEVER ACCEPTABLE, NEVER. His 65% winning percentage in the preseason bears this out. Yet even as they all know Bills inclination to go for Ws, his teams still COVER 73% of the time as favorites in the pre-season. If theres anything solid to bet on at all in the preseason, Cowboy Bill is the Man.

Brian Billick - Another guy who just plays to win. Including the other nights romp over Atlanta, Billick clocks in at 65% A.T.S. in the preseason, and some gaudy 70% as favorites, Baltimore is usually loaded defensively and the Defenses really dominate early on when teams are just getting acclimated to new players, or in many cases looking at marginal guys.

Mike Shanahan - You though I was just pulling stuff outta the air when I picked Denver in the hall of fame game. Career Shanahan has won 71% in the preseason, and an UNREAL 83% at HOME!!! 83%!?!? Hes also at 80% as an underdog in the preseason, so naturally he flopped as a 2.5 pt dog in the hall of fame game when I dropped a couple bucks on him, naturally! Although to tell the truth - had he just kicked the extra point and settled for the LOSS by 1, I would have covered and felt like a ruddy genius!

Bill Bellichek- A parcells disciple who subscribes to the same theories. Bellichek is checking in at 67% both straight up and against the spread in his career with Cleveland and now New England. Throw in the talent he has on the Defense in New England (where he's at 69%) and that trend should hold up again.

Dennis Green - Likes to get his guys going in the preseason too. Sure he had some good Minnesota teams in the past where he compiled a 65% mark, and a RIDICULOUS 82% at home. Now hes with the Cardinals, one of the BEST PRE-SEASON TEAMS BAR NONE. The Cards were 4-0 last year and are like 85% Over like the last few years. The Arizona heat in mid August no doubt plays a role in that, and with Dennis Green at the helm, don't laugh at the little red bird this time of year.

 
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