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The NFL EDGE: 2004ISSUE No. 17
2004 SEASON FINAL ISSUE
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Greggy the Greek's: NFL EdgeWe hope that you have enjoyed the NFL edge this past season. As we reach the the end of a great 2004 season. I want to personally thank all of you who log on here throughout the year for stopping by. It's a great thrill to know so many of you enjoy checking out the NFL Edge. If you have enjoyed the NFL Edge, tell us about it in OUR FORUM! I would sure like to know what you think. ...Or better yet, tell that guy you know who loves to wager online about us!
Cincinnati at Philadelphia +3.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! One of many interesting match ups, as the Eagles J.V. Squad which displayed ineptness on Monday hosts the Bengals who are trying furiously to even their record up to .500. The odds makers favor the Bengals with good reason, as the near injury to the Eagles DB, and the one to the back up running back at the end of Mondays game. Throw in the previous injury to WR Terrell Owens, and you will understand why the Eagles will be playing more like Chickens. Im with Madden though that I would want to keep my momentum going into the playoffs. We'll see if the Eagles play that way.
Cleveland at Houston -10.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! Heres a rather lackluster game where the downtrodden Browns go down to Houston. The Texans are pretty optimistic of finishing with an 8-8 mark, their best record in their short history. As an 11 pt favorite it seems most people think that will happen. With David Carr at the helm and playmakers like Domanick Davis, and Andre Johnson playing the Texans will make some plays, but its their defense that shut out playoff chasing Jacksonville on the road that will win this game.
Detroit at Tennessee +1.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! Another of these meaningless games. Tennessee is still playing hard though, they just don't have the horses to hang with real teams. As the X-treme Stats bear out with their 1-6 ATS home mark. Tennessee only dressed 43 in their last game. Talk about playing out the string. Joey Harrington should have a field day against the Tenn. Secondary, as the Lions look to end the season on a positive note, and improve on their 5-2 road ATS record this season.
Green Bay at Chicago -4.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! A great rivalry game, and a bit of a revenge game for the Pack as the Bears embarrassed them in Lambeau earlier this year. However as the Pack has the Division all wrapped up, I doubt we will see the front line guys for the Pack much in this one. Chicago should be able to reign in the Pack offense without Farve and at least keep the score respectable. Chicago will find a way to cough the game up in the end to the Green Bay back ups just for good measure still in the holiday spirit of giving.
 Miami at Baltimore -11.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! This game at least has some relevance to it. Baltimore needs a win and some help to get into the playoffs. So you know that they wont be mailing this one in with the JV squad. Miami despite 11 losses hasn't mailed anything in and has outright won 2 in a row, and X-treme Stats show covered 4 of the last 6. I don't expect any quit from the Dolphins, even with the third string QB Sage Rosenfels (No relation to Marcel) at the helm. The Dolphins match up pretty well actually with the Ravens leading the series 4-0 and only failing to cover in last years meeting as a 6.5 pt favorite winning by 3. The Dolphins wont come away with their 5th victory but will keep it respectable.
Minnesota at Washington +3.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! The Vikings are another team fighting for their playoff lives in this one. Washington would love to spoil it for them, and get back some of the momentum they had going into the Dallas Debacle last week. Last year in a similar situation Minnesota went out to Arizona and promptly ended their season. Will they have such a let up again. Im not sure, but the Skins are more formidable than the Cards were last year. I got shelled by Minnesota last week, and if I had bothered to dig through the X-treme Stats I could have seen that Minn. is 1-3 ATS over the last 4 weeks, so that should really be no surprise. I do still think they are legit enough to nail down a road win and punch their postseason ticket. Probably contrary to what's good for me.
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New Orleans at Carolina -4.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! The Saints visit Carolina, now were really talking! This should be a great match up as it is essentially a "play-in" game. New Orleans controls their own destiny and with a win can get into the playoffs. Carolina needs to win and some other things to happen to get into the playoffs, but you better believe they see this one as a playoff game. Hard to go against the red hot Carolina Panthers who have reeled off seven in a row A.T.S., even against the super-hot Saints, who have won 3 in a row themselves. Dig some more stats up at our X-treme Match ups and you can talk yourself out of thinking Carolina wont find a way to win this game. The Panthers have the heart of a champion and even if they don't get into the playoffs, Carolina will roar once more in an amazing run to end the season.
N.Y. Jets at St. Louis -1.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! Heres another playoff type game. The Jets need a win to solidify a playoff spot, and are coming of a crushing home loss. So they will be looking to bounce back in this one. St Louis, fueled by a big confidence boosting victory Monday night, and even the possibility of winning the NFCs West Division outright with a victory, and some help, will be a load of turbulance for the New Yorkers. The Rams have a healthy Marc Bulger back at QB and the two horses of Steven Jackson and Marshall Faulk in the mix. Something they didn't have most of the season. The Jets can still hang with this crew, but when the Rams get it running on that home turf, and can smell the playoffs, I don't know that I want to be checking in to that flight. The Greatest show on turf has been cleared for take off, the Jets are grounded.
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EDGE The Doc is 8-3(72%) A.T.S. in his Bowl picks thus far for 2004,
you can check the earlier bowl picks out in our Archived issue 2004 NFL Edge Issue No. 16 and other stats Gamblers care about Houston Bowl
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Alamo Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State -3.5
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These are two teams that can really pound the ball. Oklahoma State will try to win with the running of Vernand Morency. This guy is a stud, and he will give OSU fits. Troy Smith, who became a fan favorite for the Buckeyes after beating Michigan, will get to show the country if he's for real. Doc thinks he is, and Buckeye Nation will have lots to look forward to next season.
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Ohio St. 24 - Ok. St. 14
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Ohio St. 33 - Ok St 7 WINNER
Silicon Valley Bowl
Troy vs. NIU E
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This will be a defensive struggle with two teams that are not exaclty prolific on the offensive side of the ball. Northern Ilinios is a more complete team, however. They have tailback Garrett Wolfe, who will be the key to NIU controlling the game. Doc sees NIU winning in (Old Skool)New York Giant, grind-it-out style.
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North Illi. 20 - Troy St. 13
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N. Illi. 34 - Troy St. 21 WINNER
Holiday Bowl
Texas Tech vs. California -11.5
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Jeff Tedford is just about the hottest name in college coaching right now. He has really turned things around at Cal. Texas Tech has the unenviable task of trying to stop a very pissed off Cal team. The Bears will be lead by RB JJ Arrington - who has been nothing short of sensational all season - and QB Aaron Rogers. Doc is thinking blow out here. Cal has a much better D than Tech, and that will be the difference.
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Cal 42 - Texas Tech 21
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Tex. Tech 45 - Cal 31 LOSER
Emerald Bowl
Navy vs. New Mexico -2.5
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This, boys, is power football at it's finest. Neither of these teams likes to throw the ball much,but their running games are lots of fun to see. Navy is led by FB Kyle Eckel. He is a load to bring down, and often gets the ball as the first read in the Navy option. DonTrell Moore is Eckel's counterpart from New Mexico. The Lobos are just as efficient as Navy, but they are bigger on both sides of the line. Because of this, Doc has to go against the Middies. Hate to do it, but I just can't see them pulling this off.
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N.M. 24 - Navy 17
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NAVY 34 - N.M. 19 LOSER
and other stats Gamblers care about
Continental Tire Bowl
Boston College vs. North Carolina -2.5
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Boston College is consistantly mediocre and well coached. North Carolina is having a pretty solid year considering how tough the ACC was this season. The win over Miami was huge for this program. The Tarheel coaches will probably be looking at lots of film from the Syracuse game, since they were the only team to really beat this BC defense. It's a very solid unit, and needs to play well to keep RB Chad Scott in check. Look for BC to win in a close one - Doc likes QB Paul Peterson in tight games.
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B.C. 29 - UNC 27
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B.C. 37 - UNC 24 WINNER
Sun Bowl
Arizona State vs. Purdue -6.5
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OK, which Purdue team will show up to this bowl game? The team began the season looking like world beaters, and then pulled a Houdini down the stretch. It seems that Big Ten coaches figured out how to stop "basketball on grass". The question remains whether that info has made it to the Pac 10 or not. Doc likes that Kyle Orton and Purdue finished the year strong after four straight defeats. Look for the Boilermakers to put together one more good one and take the win.
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Purdue 31 - Az St. 24
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AZ ST 27 - P.U. 23 LOSER
Peach Bowl
Florida vs. Miami -2.5
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The Gators and the Canes. This one should be good. Look for the Canes to finish strong with their powerful running game and a last hurrah for the up and down career of Brock Berlin. The future is bright for the Gators, but they aren't gonna win this one.
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Canes 34 - Fla. 24
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MIA 27 - FLA 10 WINNER
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Alabama
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Two strong running teams will be facing off. This marks the Tide's return to post-season play after suffering through probation. Minnesota really looked ugly at the end of the year, dropping four of five down the stretch. Still, they have a great one-two punch at tailback in Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney. Bama features a truly great defense that can play the run and pass very well. Doc is going to go with a Tide team that seems to be on the upswing and looking for a big year next season. The D will be the difference.
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Bama 21 - Minn. 17
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MINN 20 - ALA 16 LOSER
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Liberty Bowl
Boise State vs. Louisville -13.5
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This game features two of the really bright young coaches in the game. Louisville is led by Bobby Petrino, while Boise State has Andy Hawkins. Both these guys know a few things about offense. Doc likes Louisville in this one, simply because they have faced better competition and have a more oportunistic defense. These guys are the real deal.
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Cards. 38 - Boise 28
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LOUIS. 44 - BOISE 40 WINNER
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Greggy the Greek's: NFL EdgePittsburgh at Buffalo -8.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! Heres another tough match up. The Steelers have everything all wrapped up, playoffs, home field the whole 9 (or is it 8.5!?!) So they visit Buffalo and by all indications will be featuring a J.V. squad resting for the playoffs. Buffalo, needs this one and a little help to get in to the Playoffs. Buffalo is playing really well, heck they have been the hottest team in the league over the past month and a half, and are even tougher at home in December. As you might expect with an 11-4 ATS record, and Buffalo are 5-0 ATS at home
they have reeled 6 in a row ATS according to the X-treme Stats. The Steelers on the other hand are only 2-3 ATS in the last 5, yet are 3-0 ATS in this series although they havent played since 2001. I never have known a Bill Cower team not to play hard and that is a mighty large number to lay there. But I Gotta go with the Bills, who really need this one, vs. a bunch of second line players. Yeah Steeler fans let me have it again!
San Francisco at New England -16.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! 16.5?!? Wow, that's a huge number. Going against the Pats J.V. team no less. A meaningless game to New England, although don't tell that to Bill Bellicheck whom no matter whos on the field only accepts excellence. At Home no less, where the rabid fans are still bickering over the Miami loss, although now with Playoff postion solidified, they might be more tolerant. Yet, San Francisco is a bad football team, and before you foolishly go out and take them points or even tease them to some obscene 22 or 26 points remember that they were slapped around 41-7 last week, and looked even worse than that score indicates. Still the Bills actually had something to play for, I don't know if New England will be summoning quite that effort. Yet would YOU want to have a big parlay depending on San Francisco? I see New England jumping out to 27-3 lead and coasting with San Fran failing to convert on a 2 pt. Try late in the game to punish the foolish point suckers!
Atlanta at Seattle -5.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! This game might be meaningless to both of these teams, so it again will be hard to tell what to expect. Seattle clinched a playoff spot last week when they squeaked by a game Cardinal team, even with backup QB Trent Dilfer at the helm. Remember how I mentioned last week, that they were a piddly 1-5 ATS at home, well now they are 1-6. Atlanta looked about as you would expect with rookie Matt Schaub playing QB for a resting Micheal Vick. They have the No. 2 seed for the playoffs all wrapped up. Seattle still has the Division title to strive for and needs a win. And shoot, Im getting on the Hawks one more for Old times sake, as I get punished every single time I take them, why not end 2004 the same way I ended so many promising parlays this whole season. With a Stinking Seattle Seahawk pick.
Tampa Bay at Arizona -3.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! This will be a tough match up among two teams with nothing left to play for, yet no quit in any of them. They both sport 5-10 records. The Bucs responded to a poor start and got themselves into the playoff mix, for a second, then fell off as losers of three straight. Arizona just keeps on coverin' having Won against the Spread the last two games in a row, and are 4-3 ATS in the desert. A winning mark at home will go a long way to Dennis Greens building up the birds. Yet Im not totally sold on the birds as a favorite, see. Even against the slumping Bucs, whom X-treme Stats say is 1-6 ATS on the road. Some of Tampas Defensive guys like Ronde Barber gonna make some big plays, Im thinking, and help the Buccos get one more W.
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Indianapolis at Denver -4.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! Indy is yet another one of those teams with nothing to play for against a Denver team for whom this is basically a playoff game. They win and they are in, but get this if Indy were to lose they could wind up hosting Denver again in two weeks. Interesting. Payton Manning mentioned that in an interview. They are also talking about two years ago when they coasted the last one and wound up getting beat in the playoffs. He also mentioned that Tony Dungy has never won 13 games in a season and they want to reach that record for him. Essentially, Indy is giving signs that they WONT be sending in the second teamers. But Im not buying that really, and Payton wont be the one calling the shots when this game is on the line.
Jacksonville at Oakland +1.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! Jacksonville needs to win this and get some help if they hope to get into the playoffs. The Raiders have been playing spoiler for a few weeks already, and would love to throw a dash into Jacksonville playoff dreams.
That is the kind of motivation that sez, Oakland wont be packing it in. The Injury question to Byron Leftwhich is a bit of a concern though, he could play and foil the plans. Plans? What plans... one more time for old times sake... the Rayyydezzz! C'mon I'll have all offseason to recoop from it!
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Kansas City at San Diego +3.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! The Chiefs take their woeful defense and sporty four game winning streak to red hot San Diego, who shown last week they aint on cruise control yet, but the W don't mean squat to them anyhow. The Bolts ain't met a point spread they didn't like just a ridiculous 14-1 ATS, even last week in defeat, they manage to cover. Don't know that I want to go against that even with a rejuvinated Chief team, who failed to cover last week. That defense might just make the Chargers Second team look mean - was that Phillip Rivers making the Chiefs see red. KC returns the favor from a month ago and rides into the sunset a winner for Dicky V.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants -2.5GET THE LIVE NFL BETTING LINE NOW! The last game of 2004! PHEW finally, this one is anything but a mail-in game for these two teams. Despite nothing to play for, the Giants desperately need a win to stop their eight game losing streak. Dallas comes in with a bunch of momentum having betsed their archrival Washington in dramatic fashion last week. These two are evenly matched and both will be going all out. The offenses are about stet, with Dallas having the edge defensively, and that's what we hope to give you here... The Edge!! Take Bill Parcells and the pokes. |
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Beware the Big Ten in bowl games. They have been very tough the last few years. Still, Doc really likes these Bulldogs (see my preseason picks). They are very talented on both sides of the ball, and have the D to shut down the Badgers power game. Neither team is really explosive on offense, but the overall speed edge goes to Georgia.
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Can the Vols find an offense for this one? They have been sputtering through the season without much of a passing game. The Aggies, meanwhile, have been playing some pretty good ball. Reggie McNeal is a stud at QB - his legs will do just as much if not more damage than his arm. If the Aggies can containg Gerald Riggs Jr - no easy task - they will win this game. Doc is betting that they get it done with an improved D and the leadership of McNeal.
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The Tigers suddenly find themselves without a coach, as Saban will be joining the Miami Dolphins next year. Still, he will be there for the Bowl game and should provide inspiration for his troops to win one for the Coach. Doc loves the job Kirk Ferenz has done at Iowa - there isn't a better coach in all of football than him. Gotta take the speed and athleticism of the Bayou Bengals though. LSU is a tough team to beat when you're offense is only fair, as Iowa's is. Tate is great at QB, but it won't be quite enough. Hate to do it, but LSU is the pick.
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What a bizarre matchup for this game. Both teams are losing their coaches after this season. Let me say this: if Utah doesn't win this game big, it will be a huge blow against all mid-major teams for years to come. Utah needs to win this one for the little guy. Besides, take a look at this team - they are downright scary. Alex Smith is awesome at QB, and nobody has even come close to the Utes this year. Besides, Pitt isn't that good.
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Just doesn't seem right to have Texas in the Rose Bowl. Doc always likes Michigan in the Bowl games, Call it a Midwest bias. Texas is a damn good team. Loads of talent. Cedrick Benson is just about as good as it gets at RB. The Texas D is also extremely fast and tough. Nobody really beat them all year. The key to the game is balance. Michigan has it, Texas...not so much. The Wolverines will sell out to stop the run and make QB Vince Young beat them. He isn't going to do it. Michigan will pose more problems for Texas' D than vice versa.
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Doc has become a big Auburn fan this year. This team is just tough. They have a swarming D and an efficient offense. They have a chip on their collective shoulders after getting snubbed for the Orange Bowl. They have Jason Campbell, who has quieted all critics with a great year. Tech is a real good team, and I have the utmost respect for Beamer ...but it's all Tigers this day baby.
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The Sooners are the underdog in this one. I think they like it that way. Jason White is just not as flashy as Heisman winner Matt Leinhart. USC has Reggie Bush, but Oklahoma has Adrian Peterson. This should be a great game. Both defenses are top notch, but Doc thinks Oklahoma has a slight edge here! Peterson will be able to run on SC, and therein lies the difference. Take the Sooners in a mild upset.
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