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The NFL EDGE: 2004
ISSUE No. 16 : HOLIDAY EDITION!
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Greggy the Greek's: NFL Edge


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Friday, Dec. 24
Green Bay at Minnesota -2.5

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A CHRISTMAS EVE PRESENT. A HUGE Prime time game to essentially decide the fate of the NFC North! I like what I seen from Minnesota this year. They are tougher and hang in there in tough games. Despite the big loss at home, and with the DIVISION title on the line, I still cant get on the Pack in a Dome where QB Brett Farve always struggles. X-treme Stats reveal that Minn. has beaten the spread in this series 6 out of the last 7 meetings between these two. It will be a great game, but as I predicted in the PRESEASON PREVIEW, the pick this year, and consequentially this week is Minnesota.
************************************
Minn. 37 - GB 31
************************************
GB 34 - MINN 31 LOSER

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Saturday, Dec. 25
Oakland at Kansas City -5.5

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A Sensational Saturday match up. Sure there are no playoff implications in this game. Yet these two teams combined to post 85 points last week alone. K.C. was following up 49 they put up Monday Night and even put up 56 points earlier this year. The Raiders matched that output last week as they put up 40. Defense may be an after thought in this one. Definately a candidate for a big over play. Checking with the X-treme Stats we can see that the series between these two is pretty close. The Raiders have 6-4 edge in the last 10 but most recently the ROAD team has covered the last three. Despite the temptation, and the impressive performance last week, my Raider recovery support team is telling me that even though I had a slip up, and nothing bad happened (the Raiders won) I cant throw away the progress I have made, and cant get back on the Raiders now.
************************************
KC 38 - OAK. 29
************************************
KC 31 - OAK 30 WINNER/NO COVER
 
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Denver at Tennessee +4.5

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Didnt we tell you last week Denver was starting its December dive. Well if allowing 45 points looked pitiful last week, then you might not want to see this one. Tenn. despite losing two in a row, have got some offense going now, behind newly minted starting QB Billy Volek. Volek has been playing pitch and catch with his talented WRs like Drew Bennett to the tune of 900+ yards and 8 TDs in TWO GAMES! Defensively though is where the Titans are really lacking. Denver Decembers descents defy logic though, thus the Titans temptation's too much! Yet the best bet may be the over.
************************************
Tenn. 31 - DENV 30
************************************
DENV 37 - TENN 16 LOSER

Sunday, Dec. 26
Atlanta at New Orleans +3.5

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Was it just a few weeks ago I was thinking of putting N.O. into my "find and bet" category. Meaning find who they are playing and bet against it. Then a funny thing started to happen, they started covering. People who dont follow it, dont know but covering is the first sign that a team is turning corner and soon the Ws follow. N.O. has been winning and is keeping thier scant fleeting playoff hopes alive. Atl. is pretty much on cruise control now. They have the South wrapped up, and will be a playoff team, likely the no. 2 seed. Thus they have decided to rest Micheal Vick and keep him out of this game. Although this rivaly has been tight and really close, even with Vick. The Saints 1-6 home ATS mark is enough to scare me off this one. Without Vick and Bruising RB TJ Duckett also out of this one, I am foolishly taking the team that covers only 14% of its home games.
************************************
N.O. 31 - ATL 24
************************************
N.O. 26 - ATL 13 WINNER  


Baltimore at Pittsburgh -6.5

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This match up looked huge a few months back, but now that Pitt has won the North. They could be cruising into this one. Last week the way the Giants moved the ball on Pitts defense just plays into that theory. Baltimore did wind up getting blasted last week, but it was a much closer game than it looked. Baltimore is the only team to beat Pittsburgh all season, in fact they didnt just beat Pittsburgh, they thumped them to the tune of 30-13. Of course some will argue that was before Ben Rothlilsberger took over at QB. Sure thats one way to look at it, another way is that Baltimore really matches up well against this team. I dont know if they can go into Pittsburgh and win the game, but Baltimore sure has a bunch more at stake in this one than does Pitt. So while I wont go and call for the outright upset, I am grabbing the Ravers with that TD.
************************************
Pitt 24 - Bal 20
************************************
PITTS. 20 - BAL 7 WINNER/NO COVER  

Carolina at Tampa Bay -3.5

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Despite both teams having lost last week, they both STILL have playoff hopes. So that should make this a very interesting game. The Bucs are a really tough team at home, as their 5-2 home ATS record bears out. Carolina has been a beast on the road going 6-1 ATS as the visitor, and although splitting the series at 4-4 in the last 8, Carolina holds a 6-2 mark ATS in those games. As we learned last week, NEVER discount the Panthers, nor a John Fox team. Much less when they are getting points.
************************************
Carolina 27 - Tampa 19
************************************
CAROLINA 37 - TAMPA 20 WINNER  

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Chicago at Detroit -4.5

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Just playing for Pride in this one. With no playoff possiblity for either one. Just Pride. Speakig of which, Pride, isnt that a group of Lions. They better practice snapping those extra points. Somehow I dont feel this one will come down to that.
************************************
Detroit 28 - Chi 6
************************************
DETROIT 19 - CHI 13 WINNER  

Houston at Jacksonville -6.5

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They said neither of these two would win last week. Southern teams playing in the North. Yeah people thought I was crazy taking the sunshine boys in the midwest last week. We done showed them something last week didnt we! Now this one should come as no surprise to anyone following my picks this season. What with Jacks. all of 5-2 ATS at home and Hou. 3-4 ATS on the road, it seems easy enough. Yet a small degree of caution as Houston has a decided advantage 4-1 ATS in this series. So it might be a little closer than the 6.5, especially considering Jacks. has been playing close games all season. Well all season up until last week. So I wont be making that bet.
************************************
Jack. 23 - Hous 14
************************************
HOUS 21 - JACKS 0 LOSER  

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Here we go, guys. Another great season capped off by a bunch of bowl games that nobody has ever heard of, featuring teams with 6-5 records. Kinda like ending a date with a kiss on the cheek. Just wrong. I know, it's a reward for the kids. That's cool and all, but this whole scene just reminds me of little league. Hell, even Pop Warner has a playoff....

Anyhow, the NCAA Bowl picks have arrived. If you want to argue their merits, I'll see ya on the FORUM . Happy Holidays to all - and a big thanks to the Greek for doing all the legwork to keep this site up and running for all these years....
Check back next week for the REST of the Bowl Games!
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Champs Sports Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse +4.5

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This one used to be the Tangerine Bowl for you purists out there. These teams have both been inconsistant this year, making this one tough to pick. The secret here will be defense, and the Jackets have that in deuces. Doc sees Georgia Tech winning with some big defensive plays, and some timely play by QB Reggie Ball.
***********************************************
Tech 31 - 'Cuse 20
***********************************************
G. Tech 51 - Cuse 14 WINNER  

GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Memphis +3.5

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This one will be fun to watch, Doc will guarantee ya that. Sure, you've probably never seen these guys and can't name two players on either squad. Still, these are two of the best offenses anywhere and can really light up the scoreboard. Look for BG quarterback Omar Jacobs to have a career day. This kid is the real deal, and will eat up the swiss cheese D provided by Memphis. Take the Falcons in this one.
***********************************************
BGSU 40 - Memphis 31.
***********************************************
BGSU 52 - Memph. 35 WINNER  
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Las Vegas Bowl
Wyoming vs. UCLA -11.5

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Coach Dorrell just got an extention at UCLA, so I guess the Bruins think he is doing a good job there. Wyoming will be looking to make a big statement against a team of UCLA's pedigree. Just ain't happening. UCLA should win and win big in this one. Maurece Drew is back to lead the Bruin rushing attack. The Cowboys are a well coached team, but unlike their names indicate they are short on horses.
***********************************************
UCLA 38 - WYO. 14
***********************************************
WYO 24 - UCLA 21 LOSER  

Fort Worth Bowl
Marshall vs. Cincinnati -1.5

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These teams really should be happy to be in the postseason. Both had disappointing seasons, to say the least. This will be stud QB Gino Guidugli's last game for Cincy. This guy has really had a nice career. He's a winner, and should be the difference in this one. Marshall hasn't beaten anyone this year, and Doc doesn't see it happening in this game. Take the Bearcats.
***********************************************
CIN. 33 - Marshall 28
***********************************************
CINCY 32 - MARSH 14 WINNER  

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Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. UAB +3.5

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The Rainbow Warriors get a home game for their bowl, and it should be a big advantage here. UAB will be pumped up, as this is their first bowl game EVER. Parity has truly hit the NCAA. Hawaii QB Timmy Chang will have one last chance to light up the scoreboard for the Warriors. He will leave as the NCAA's career passing yardage leader, with somewhere around 17,000 yards. Doc guarantees that there will be NO defense in this one, guys. Sit back and enjoy the airshow.
***********************************************
Hawaii 51 - UAB 42
***********************************************
HAWAII 59 - UAB 40 WINNER  
 
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MPC Computers Bowl
Fresno State vs. Virginia -5.5

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Fresno State has been able to beat lots of bigger programs under Coach Hill. The man is good. Still, this one really should be a mismatch. Virginia simply has too much for these guys. It isn't a good matchup for the giant killers from California. Look for Virginia to control the ball with Walli Lundi and Alvin Pearman running between the tackles. Cavs win this one.
***********************************************
Cavs 27 - Fresno 20
***********************************************
FRESNO 37 - U. Va. 34 LOSER  
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Motor City Bowl
UConn vs. Toledo -3.5

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Well, believe it or not, this could be one of the better games of the bowl season. Both of these teams have quality offenses. UConn has done a great job since entering the Big East, and are looking for a bowl win to show they are legit. Toledo, led by QB Bruce Gradkowski, will be going for their tenth win. Not bad. Doc is going with Toledo here, mostly because of Gradkowski but also because they have also demonstrated a tough, disciplined D. The Rockets will come up with the big stops when they need to.
***********************************************
Toledo 35 - UConn 34
***********************************************
UCONN 39 - TOL. 10 COVER  
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Insight Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Oregon State -3.5

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This bowl dropped the .com from it's title in hopes of gaining more credibility. Did it work? Anyhow, this game can be summed up in one quick stat: 114 vs. 8. That is ND's pass defense (114th), going up against Oregon State's passing offense (8th in the country). Unless ND can come up with a bunch of turnovers (which isn't impossible since the Beavers like to give the ball away), it will be a big day for OSU. Not a favorable matchup for the Irish.
***********************************************
Ore. St 31 - ND 21
***********************************************
OSU 38 - ND 21 WINNER  

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N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati -7.5

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A much tougher match up than it looks. Both of these two had playoff possibilitys pruned by virtue of losing last week. Yet the G-men finally shown some signs of life offensively behind Eli Manning. Thats all well and good, but with that defense, with an almost nonexistent pass rush, and a secondary allowing all kinds of WR to roam free deep, Eli is gonna have to play like Payton to keep the Giants in this one.
************************************
Cincy 36 - NYG 30
************************************
CINCY 23 - NYG 22 WINNER

San Diego at Indianapolis -7.5

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A Huge potential Playoff preview! San Diego wrapped up the west last week, and will likely be sky high riding a wave of momentum. Unless they let up a little bit. Marty Shottenheimer wont let his boys relax, just cause they clinched the division. Indy might be in the same predicament having wrapped up the southern division. However since they have wrapped it up, and New England lost they are now looking at that coveted first round playoff bye. Payton still has a record to break, but San Diegos Defense doesn't want to be the ones 'posterized'. So this will definately be fun to watch. I cant really go against Indy at home. Yet San Diego has just been getting it done in improbable places all year. I really dont want to go against the Bolts either. With that 7.5 hanging out there on this one, I'll chance a little of both, Indy in a close one.
************************************
Indian. 33 - S.D. 30
************************************
INDY 34 - S.D. 31 WINNER
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Buffalo at San Francisco +10.5

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The Hottest team in the NFL right now is Buffalo, the X-treme Stats show they have covered the last 5 games. They go up against the other HOT team in the NFL the Niners. By that I mean I have been RED HOT betting against the Niners! Aside from the one win in Zona (which we did pick didnt we!) the Niners really are pretty pathetic. I do expect a close game if for nothing else Buffalo is in its second away game in a row, and they have historically struggled out on the west coast, and it looks like they havent won out in San Fran at least a decade. Including a 35-0 blowout the last trip to the 'stick (uhh isnt it 3 com park now? whatever). However, thats all ancient history, Buffalo is in a dogfight for a playoff spot. Since the Bills 0-4 start, Buffalo has been one of the top offenses in Football, well actually since the emergence of RB Willis McGahee. Oh small problem, McGahee wont be playing in this one. Well despite that small fact, Buffalo's defense has been rock solid all season, so I dont see S.F. putting up a lot of points. In fact even without McGahee I dont see any way SF can win this one. That 10.5 for a home dog, though proved fatal last week. Wager at your own risk!
************************************
Buffalo 27 - SF 13
************************************
BUFF 41 - S.F. 7 WINNER  

New England at N.Y. Jets E

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This may seem like it would be a bit of an exhibition game, what with the Pats already having clinched the division, and the Jets almost assured of a wildcard. It almost makes sense that these two potential playoff opponents may not want to pull out all the stops in this almost meaningless game. Could that be a way to describe what happened to New England on Monday night in Miami? Some folks are trying to blame that on Charlie Weis having double duty as the offensive coordinator and N.D. head coach. Although it wasnt Weis panicked into flinging up interceptions now was it? In fact that was about the most rattled I have ever seen Tom Brady. Will New England come out on a mission to redeem themselves? Or will the Jets defense inspired by what they saw Monday come out and try to send a message. That is the million dollar question, even the bookmakers dont know which way to go as there is NO LINE on this game. The X-treme Stats aren't much help either as we can see over the last ten, these two are split 5-5. In fact earlier this year the Pats won a tight one, 13-7. So the best bet may be to just steer clear of this one. Personally, I just cant see New England dropping two in a row, and potentially losing that first round playoff bye.
************************************
New Engl. 24 - NY Jets 20
************************************
N.E. 23 - NYJ 7 WINNER  

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Arizona at Seattle -7.5

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The Jeckyl and Hyde Seattle Seahwaks have an opportunity to clinch the NFC West (with a win and a St. Louis loss). Not so fast though Zona snapped thier 4 game losing streak with a convincing 31-7 thumping of the Rams behind solid play from QB Josh McCown who is back from injury. Although 3 of the 4 Zona wins were at home, including a week 2 victory over these very same Seahawks where coincidentally enough they were also 7 pt dogs in that one. Them there are some serious warning signs, as Zona has shown they arent done fighting, and that early season victory tells me that the will have some confidence going into the rematch. Seeing them 7.5 points dangling out there and taking a peek at the X-treme Stats we can see that Seattle is a meager 1-5 ATS at home makes them covering Cards even more tempting. However, despite the up and down season they have had, Seattle can put all that behind them with just one big home win. Despite thier mediocrity I wont be wagering against that.
************************************
Sea. 30 - Az. 21
************************************
SEA 24 - AZ 21 WINNER/NO COVER

Washington at Dallas +1.5

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These old NFC East rivals collide in a mildly anti-climactic event. Both teams come in with 5-9 records although Washington has fared a little better against the spread posting an even 7-7 mark vs the number while Dallas comes in at 6-8. Looking deeper into the X-treme Stats, we can see that this series has been decidedly lopsided with Dallas having come through in 9 of the last 10. Washingtons lone victory against the 'Boys came back in 2001. That includes a 21-18 Dallas victory in Washington on a Monday night earlier this year. Gotta throw the records and such out the window in this kind of rivalry. Especially considering the way the Redskins have been playing defense lately. Wash. has been on fire, beating the spread the last 4 weeks. Dallas hasn't hung it up yet either, as you might expect with a Bill Parcells team, battling tough in Philly last week and also covering in 3 of thier last 4. The thing that worries me is that Wash. is 1-8 in games after a victory, and Dallas having thier number and all. Despite that Im getting on the Gibbs Gang from DC to douse Dallas with thier improved defense and exact a little bit of revenge in big D.
************************************
Wash. 19 - Dall. 16
************************************
DALL 13 - WASH 10 LOSER  

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Cleveland at Miami -6.5

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Aint this a prime time jem??? Hard to really want to put your money of either of these two teams. Might be just as hard to watch this one. It is in Miami though, and the Fish are on a bit of a roll since they dumped Wannstedt. Checking the X-treme Stats you might be surprised to see that they are currently one of the NFL's hottest teams have covered the spread 4 out of the last five, and outright beating the 12-1 Patriots last Monday. Basically Miami hasn't quit and still play hard. Thats more than I can say for Cleveland, who hasnt covered a spread since October.
************************************
Miami 24 - Cleve. 13
************************************
MIAMI 10 - CLE 7 WINNER/NO COVER  



Monday, Dec. 27
Philadelphia at St. Louis -3.5

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The way this week has played out this game is even tougher to call! Yeah the Eagles lost T.O., thats not news, but this game is totally meaningless. They already have the home field and basically all they need to do is stay healthy. The Rams are home, and still have some playoff hopes. They get Marc Bulger back for this one, and the bookmakers also sniff a Ram victory. I see that also but you know what, I think this game is BIG for Philly. I think they need this one to get some confidence going after the T.O. thang. I think that even Phillys J.V. squad goes in and gets the W. Then next week they rest the troops. Yeah I know I'm nuts, I just dont like that Rams O.L. against the Philly Defense, even if it dont mean squat!
************************************
Philly 21 - St. Louis 20
************************************
ST. Louis 20 - PHI 7 LOSER
 

   

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Independence Bowl
Iowa State vs. Miami (Oh) -2.5

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Doc is thinking that the Cyclones are still smarting from losing out on thier bid to win the Big XII north after coming sooo close. Miami will want this one more, and certainly can win this one as long as the D comes to play. Doc is going against conventional wisdom here and taking the "small" school.
************************************
Miami (Oh) 24 - Iowa State 20
************************************
IA. St 17 - MIA(OH) 13 LOSER  

Silicon Valley Bowl
Troy vs. NIU E

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This will be a defensive struggle with two teams that are not exaclty prolific on the offensive side of the ball. Northern Ilinios is a more complete team, however. They have tailback Garrett Wolfe, who will be the key to NIU controlling the game. Doc sees NIU winning in (Old Skool)New York Giant, grind-it-out style.
************************************
North Illi. 20 - Troy St. 13
************************************
 

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Alamo Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State -3.5

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These are two teams that can really pound the ball. Oklahoma State will try to win with the running of Vernand Morency. This guy is a stud, and he will give OSU fits. Troy Smith, who became a fan favorite for the Buckeyes after beating Michigan, will get to show the country if he's for real. Doc thinks he is, and Buckeye Nation will have lots to look forward to next season.
************************************
Ohio St. 24 - Ok. St. 14
************************************
 

Houston Bowl
UTEP vs. Colorado -2.5

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Ummm....Colorado. The Buffs have had some ups and downs this season but it must be said that Gary Barnett has done a wonderful job keeping the team together after a scandal-plagued offseason. Mike Price is the coach of the Miners, and he showed why he is one of the better coaches in the game this year as well. Still, the Buffs are simply a stronger, deeper team and should win on that basis alone.
************************************
Buffs 30 - UTEP 20
************************************
 

Holiday Bowl
Texas Tech vs. California -11.5

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Jeff Tedford is just about the hottest name in college coaching right now. He has really turned things around at Cal. Texas Tech has the unenviable task of trying to stop a very pissed off Cal team. The Bears will be lead by RB JJ Arrington - who has been nothing short of sensational all season - and QB Aaron Rogers. Doc is thinking blow out here. Cal has a much better D than Tech, and that will be the difference.
************************************
Cal 42 - Texas Tech 21
************************************
 

Emerald Bowl
Navy vs. New Mexico -2.5

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This, boys, is power football at it's finest. Neither of these teams likes to throw the ball much,but their running games are lots of fun to see. Navy is led by FB Kyle Eckel. He is a load to bring down, and often gets the ball as the first read in the Navy option. DonTrell Moore is Eckel's counterpart from New Mexico. The Lobos are just as efficient as Navy, but they are bigger on both sides of the line. Because of this, Doc has to go against the Middies. Hate to do it, but I just can't see them pulling this off.
************************************
N.M. 24 - Navy 17
************************************
 

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Continental Tire Bowl
Boston College vs. North Carolina -2.5

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Boston College is consistantly mediocre and well coached. North Carolina is having a pretty solid year considering how tough the ACC was this season. The win over Miami was huge for this program. The Tarheel coaches will probably be looking at lots of film from the Syracuse game, since they were the only team to really beat this BC defense. It's a very solid unit, and needs to play well to keep RB Chad Scott in check. Look for BC to win in a close one - Doc likes QB Paul Peterson in tight games.
************************************
B.C. 29 - UNC 27
************************************
 

Sun Bowl
Arizona State vs. Purdue -6.5

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OK, which Purdue team will show up to this bowl game? The team began the season looking like world beaters, and then pulled a Houdini down the stretch. It seems that Big Ten coaches figured out how to stop "basketball on grass". The question remains whether that info has made it to the Pac 10 or not. Doc likes that Kyle Orton and Purdue finished the year strong after four straight defeats. Look for the Boilermakers to put together one more good one and take the win.
************************************
Purdue 31 - Az St. 24
************************************
 

Peach Bowl
Florida vs. Miami -2.5

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The Gators and the Canes. This one should be good. Look for the Canes to finish strong with their powerful running game and a last hurrah for the up and down career of Brock Berlin. The future is bright for the Gators, but they aren't gonna win this one.
************************************
Canes 34 - Fla. 24
************************************
 

Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Alabama

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Two strong running teams will be facing off. This marks the Tide's return to post-season play after suffering through probation. Minnesota really looked ugly at the end of the year, dropping four of five down the stretch. Still, they have a great one-two punch at tailback in Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney. Bama features a truly great defense that can play the run and pass very well. Doc is going to go with a Tide team that seems to be on the upswing and looking for a big year next season. The D will be the difference.
************************************
Bama 21 - Minn. 17
************************************
 

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Liberty Bowl
Boise State vs. Louisville -13.5

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This game features two of the really bright young coaches in the game. Louisville is led by Bobby Petrino, while Boise State has Andy Hawkins. Both these guys know a few things about offense. Doc likes Louisville in this one, simply because they have faced better competition and have a more oportunistic defense. These guys are the real deal.
************************************
Cards. 38 - Boise 28
************************************
 
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