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The NFL EDGE: 2004
ISSUE No. 15

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The NFL Edge! Free Analysis and Projected Scores for every NFL Football Game!
 

Greggy the Greek's: NFL Edge


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Saturday, Dec. 18
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants +9.5

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Kicking off the big Holiday week will be NFL Football. The Steelers one of the best teams in the league this year, are primed for a post season run. The Giants, well they are an NFL team! I hadnt seen too much from the Giants in about 5 weeks. Then with the game out of hand last week they insert Kurt Warner back at QB who leads the Giants down to a quick score amounting more offense then they did all day. That worries me as they could go with Warner and that he would be showcasing for a contract, makes me leery. All signs though point to rookie Eli Manning at the helm, and he has not shown that he can run the Giants offense now, let alone against one of the best defenses in the league.
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Pitt 20 - NYG 6
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Pitt 33 - NYG 30 Winner/No Cover

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Washington at San Francisco +3.5

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Another interesting Saturday game. Yes its interesting as Washington shown me that they not only havent quit, but have turned the corner defensively. San Fran hasn't quit either and gritted out a tough road win. However Arizona is the only team in the league San Fran can beat. Washington will continue to build for the future with a quality bounce back road win.
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Wash. 26 - San Fran 17
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WASH 26 - S.F. 16 WINNER
 



Carolina at Atlanta -4.5

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Prime time NFL on Saturday! After the undercard of rather ho-hum match ups Saturday, we get a gem in the night cap. I might not want to touch this game, as both these two have been hot lately and it could go either way. Carolina is the hottest team in the league right now - even with 15 bodies out for the year on I.R. the Cats just keep fighting. Atlanta can look dominant some times and can just flop in other games like against Tampa two weeks ago, getting shut out or getting 56 laid on them in Kansas City. I have to think that Carolinas Defense can cause conflict for the Atlanta offense. Its prime time though and I have a hunch Micheal Vick will soar under the lights and make the plays he needs to make to get the W.
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Atlanta 20 - Carolina 17
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ATL 34 - CAR 31 WINNER!

Sunday, Dec. 19
Buffalo at Cincinnati +3.5

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A great late season match up among two resurgent teams that have been playing great ball over the second half of the season. They can both score points and move the ball. Buffalo has an edge with a better defense, and the X-TREME Stats bear that out. Buffalo is a nice 9-4 ATS, 4-2 ATS on the road and they have beaten Cincy in their last 4 meetings. That and the injury question to Bengals starter Carson Palmer has the Bills as a FG fave. I would normally avoid a game like this, among two hot teams playing well right now. Although Buffalos record may be a little inflated as they have run up the score on Miami and Cleveland. The Bengals nearly beat the Pats last week and have wins over Baltimore, a 58-point game vs. the Browns and a close loss to the Steelers. That's too much right there to pass up a home dog, who even with backup QB John Kitna can score a little. If the Bengals can keep Willis McGahee in check they will win this one.
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Cincy 29 - Buff 27
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BUFF 33 - CIN 17 LOSER  


Dallas at Philadelphia -10.5

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Philadelphia dodged a big bullet last week in Washington. Despite not playing a dominant game, and probably QB Donovan McNabbs worst game of the season Philly stilly got the W! So the question is will that trend continue or will Philly bounce back with a banner effort. Maybe we need to look at Dallas for the answer, as the Pokes blew an early lead against the Saints at home last week, and were run on all day. Figure Philly will bring more of that as the Boys may be letting up some now that even their faint postseason hopes were quashed.
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Philly 31 - Dallas 16
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PHI 12 - DAL 7 Winner/No Cover  

Houston at Chicago -2.5

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An anticlimactic game among two teams whose season is winding down. Both teams feature a nice little defense, although at this stage I would have to say Houston has the better chance of actually scoring in this game. Hard to go with a southern team up in Chicago. Especially one with such a lousy December record. Yet they did cover on the Colts last week, and they are getting points against an anemic offense. So as I have avoided almost all season, Im taking Houston. WARNING HOUS is Terrible when Im wagering on them!
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HOU 16 - CHI 14
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HOU 24 - CHI 5 WINNER  

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Jacksonville at Green Bay -3.5

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Can we say these two are charmed teams. Although even a charmed image is usally the reflection on hard work. In this case it is, grit, effort determination. That's what keeps these two in games, and when your in it, you can win it. Im really liking the Jags as I have all year. But man it sure is tough going against Green Bay in Lambeau. In December no less. They are vulnerable there though as Detroit covered on them, last week and our X-treme Stats show while Jax is 3-3 ATS on the road, GB is only 2-5 ATS in Lambeau this year. So I gotta grab the road dog Jags with those points as I can see them scrapping and hanging around in this one, as they have all year.
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GB 21 - JAX 20
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JAX 28 - GB 25 COVER  

Minnesota at Detroit +3.5

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Detroit has nothing to show for it, but they managed a great game last week. Only to fall just shy. I really wanted to grab Detroit last week, but I talked myself out of that. Minnesota has got to be feeling the pressure of another impending collapse. They do have the talent to still pull it out. It wont be easy in the Detroit Dome, although according to the X-treme Stats Detroit is only 2-4 ATS at home and an even less impressive 3-7 as a home dog. So despite that Im going to buck the X-treme Stats and grab the Lions to cover.
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Minn. 29 - DET 27
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MINN 28 - DET 27 WINNER!  

   

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Here we go, guys. Another great season capped off by a bunch of bowl games that nobody has ever heard of, featuring teams with 6-5 records. Kinda like ending a date with a kiss on the cheek. Just wrong. I know, it's a reward for the kids. That's cool and all, but this whole scene just reminds me of little league. Hell, even Pop Warner has a playoff....

Anyhow, the NCAA Bowl picks have arrived. If you want to argue their merits, I'll see ya on the FORUM . Happy Holidays to all - and a big thanks to the Greek for doing all the legwork to keep this site up and running for all these years....
Check back next week for the REST of the Bowl Games!
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Champs Sports Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse +4.5

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This one used to be the Tangerine Bowl for you purists out there. These teams have both been inconsistant this year, making this one tough to pick. The secret here will be defense, and the Jackets have that in deuces. Doc sees Georgia Tech winning with some big defensive plays, and some timely play by QB Reggie Ball.
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Tech 31 - 'Cuse 20
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GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Memphis +3.5

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This one will be fun to watch, Doc will guarantee ya that. Sure, you've probably never seen these guys and can't name two players on either squad. Still, these are two of the best offenses anywhere and can really light up the scoreboard. Look for BG quarterback Omar Jacobs to have a career day. This kid is the real deal, and will eat up the swiss cheese D provided by Memphis. Take the Falcons in this one.
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BGSU 40 - Memphis 31.
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Las Vegas Bowl
Wyoming vs. UCLA -11.5

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Coach Dorrell just got an extention at UCLA, so I guess the Bruins think he is doing a good job there. Wyoming will be looking to make a big statement against a team of UCLA's pedigree. Just ain't happening. UCLA should win and win big in this one. Maurece Drew is back to lead the Bruin rushing attack. The Cowboys are a well coached team, but unlike their names indicate they are short on horses.
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UCLA 38 - WYO. 14
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Fort Worth Bowl
Marshall vs. Cincinnati -1.5

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These teams really should be happy to be in the postseason. Both had disappointing seasons, to say the least. This will be stud QB Gino Guidugli's last game for Cincy. This guy has really had a nice career. He's a winner, and should be the difference in this one. Marshall hasn't beaten anyone this year, and Doc doesn't see it happening in this game. Take the Bearcats.
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CIN. 33 - Marshall 28
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Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. UAB +3.5

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The Rainbow Warriors get a home game for their bowl, and it should be a big advantage here. UAB will be pumped up, as this is their first bowl game EVER. Parity has truly hit the NCAA. Hawaii QB Timmy Chang will have one last chance to light up the scoreboard for the Warriors. He will leave as the NCAA's career passing yardage leader, with somewhere around 17,000 yards. Doc guarantees that there will be NO defense in this one, guys. Sit back and enjoy the airshow.
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Hawaii 51 - UAB 42
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MPC Computers Bowl
Fresno State vs. Virginia -5.5

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Fresno State has been able to beat lots of bigger programs under Coach Hill. The man is good. Still, this one really should be a mismatch. Virginia simply has too much for these guys. It isn't a good matchup for the giant killers from California. Look for Virginia to control the ball with Walli Lundi and Alvin Pearman running between the tackles. Cavs win this one.
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Cavs 27 - Fresno 20
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Motor City Bowl
UConn vs. Toledo -3.5

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Well, believe it or not, this could be one of the better games of the bowl season. Both of these teams have quality offenses. UConn has done a great job since entering the Big East, and are looking for a bowl win to show they are legit. Toledo, led by QB Bruce Gradkowski, will be going for their tenth win. Not bad. Doc is going with Toledo here, mostly because of Gradkowski but also because they have also demonstrated a tough, disciplined D. The Rockets will come up with the big stops when they need to.
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Toledo 35 - UConn 34
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Insight Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Oregon State -3.5

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This bowl dropped the .com from it's title in hopes of gaining more credibility. Did it work? Anyhow, this game can be summed up in one quick stat: 114 vs. 8. That is ND's pass defense (114th), going up against Oregon State's passing offense (8th in the country). Unless ND can come up with a bunch of turnovers (which isn't impossible since the Beavers like to give the ball away), it will be a big day for OSU. Not a favorable matchup for the Irish.
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Ore. St 31 - ND 21
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Greggy the Greek's: NFL Edge


San Diego at Cleveland +9.5

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Not much for me to say about this one. In case you havent been paying attention. S.D. is good, Cleveland well they are still in my no. 1 slot. Yup that's right, my no. 1 pick, see who Cleveland is playing and take them. When its San Diego, the hottest team in the NFL, well its not really much of a decision now is it?
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S.D. 37 - Cleve. 17
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S.D. 21 - CLE 0 WINNER

Seattle at N.Y. Jets -4.5

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Hard to say what well see from Seattle this week. They do have a really nice offense that can light it up and score in bunches. But that Defense is soft. Still they managed to win in Minnesota last week. The Jets struggled offensively against the Steelers last week. They wont have such problems against this Seahawk defense! Yet the Seahawks can put some pressure on the Jets if they can get the offense going. That makes me a little nervous. Got a hunch the Jets defense bears down and keeps the Hawks offense in check, by running lots of Curtis Martin.
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Jets 26 - Sea. 19
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JETS 37 - SEA 14 WINNER  

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New Orleans at Tampa Bay -8.5

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Apparently New Orleans isn't quite as bad a team as I been making them out to be. They went in and did a number on Dallas last week, showing us that they are still fighting, and are looking to do so yet again this week in Tampa. Tampa isnt about to let that happen in their house. Although if we Check the X-treme Stats its pretty glaring that N.O. is a healthy 4-2 ATS on the road while Tampa is a lean 1-6 ATS at home! New Orleans matches up well with Tampa, offensively and the last several between these two have been close, well closer than 8.5 anyways.
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Tampa 31 - N.O. 27
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N.O. 21 - TAMPA 17 COVER  

St. Louis at Arizona +3.5

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Garbage time? Or is it? The Rams are still clinging to playoff hopes by virtue of being in the NFC West, and with a win here are still alive for yes, the division crown. The Cards were kicked in the chops by the Niners last week, which could have the deflating effect Dennis Greens team has bucked all season. Was that last week the straw that will break Zonas back? Well have to see, that's what makes this game tricky. Although the way the Rams have been playing, 4-9 ATS and 2-5 ATS on the road (from the X-treme Stats) and with a back up QB, The Cards just may find something left in the tank. Enough to make it interesting that is. The Cards haven't quit all year, but does Dennis have enough mojo left to get one more good effort from this team? I say yes!
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Zona 21 - St. L. 20
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ZONA 31 - St L 7 WINNER  

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Denver at Kansas City +2.5

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The Broncos of Denver dispatched Dolphins last week and kept their playoff hopes alive. KC rallied for an impressive road victory in Tennessee after being down most of that game. K.C. has shown that they are still playing hard. At home the big red Chief hopes to get one last ride on a fading Bronco, and if nothing else dash Denvers dreams! Sure Denver has won 4 out of the last 5 between these two. That K.C. (lack of) defense is always a concern, but the emergence of Larry Johnson at RB for K.C. will help that unit to stay off the field. Then I can count on Jake "pickoff" Plummer to do his thing as the Broncs try to come from behind.
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K.C. 36 - Denver 28
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K.C. 45 - DEN 17 WINNER

Tennessee at Oakland -2.5

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The titillating Titans travel to the Mausoleum for a date with the Raiders! Thanks for all the encouragement on my road to Raider recovery I appreciate all the supportive e-mails and cards! However I want to just let all of you know I did have a slip up, yes I slipped in Week 15 I had one final fling with the silver and black thing. Does that mean I'm a failure, no I just slipped is all, Im still off the wagon. Im telling you, May God grant me the serenity to stay away from the Raiders - the rest of the season - after just this once more...
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Oakl. 27 - Tenn 21
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OAK 40 - TENN 35 WINNER  

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Baltimore at Indianapolis -6.5

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Well it looked like I was wrong about Payton Manning breaking that record last week. So that means he has to break it this week! Baltimore won't be so enthused about that we know. The way that defense rebounded from a two game skid, they look poised to punish! The Colts at home in prime time would seem perfect for Payton to smash that record. Lets see if he needs three TDs to break the record, that will mean that Indy will have to get at least 21. Maybe throw in one or two more on prime time and all. Even as bad as Indys defense is, I cant see Baltimore throwing up 30 to be able to keep up.
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Indy 33 - Balt. 24
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INDY 20 - BAL 10 WINNER  

New England at Miami +9.5

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No Craziness this week, Im afraid. Sure the fins are still playing hard, and they are home on prime time. Normally enough to fuel a team to a good game. Look at that Giants game Saturday. Seems lots of folks are looking at that and getting on Miami with 10 or teasing them out to 16. SO that makes it pretty simple to me. New England wins. Simple enough, but now try this on for size. They win by three TDs going away, and Miami well they are already interviewing new coaching candidates. New England is trying to get home field.
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N.E. 35 - Miami 14
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Miami 29 - N.E. 28 LOSER
 

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Independence Bowl
Iowa State vs. Miami (Oh) -2.5

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Doc is thinking that the Cyclones are still smarting from losing out on thier bid to win the Big XII north after coming sooo close. Miami will want this one more, and certainly can win this one as long as the D comes to play. Doc is going against conventional wisdom here and taking the "small" school.
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Miami (Oh) 24 - Iowa State 20
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Silicon Valley Bowl
Troy vs. NIU E

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This will be a defensive struggle with two teams that are not exaclty prolific on the offensive side of the ball. Northern Ilinios is a more complete team, however. They have tailback Garrett Wolfe, who will be the key to NIU controlling the game. Doc sees NIU winning in (Old Skool)New York Giant, grind-it-out style.
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North Illi. 20 - Troy St. 13
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Alamo Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State

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These are two teams that can really pound the ball. Oklahoma State will try to win with the running of Vernand Morency. This guy is a stud, and he will give OSU fits. Troy Smith, who became a fan favorite for the Buckeyes after beating Michigan, will get to show the country if he's for real. Doc thinks he is, and Buckeye Nation will have lots to look forward to next season.
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Ohio St. 24 - Ok. St. 14
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Houston Bowl
UTEP vs. Colorado -2.5

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Ummm....Colorado. The Buffs have had some ups and downs this season but it must be said that Gary Barnett has done a wonderful job keeping the team together after a scandal-plagued offseason. Mike Price is the coach of the Miners, and he showed why he is one of the better coaches in the game this year as well. Still, the Buffs are simply a stronger, deeper team and should win on that basis alone.
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Buffs 30 - UTEP 20
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Holiday Bowl
Texas Tech vs. California -11.5

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Jeff Tedford is just about the hottest name in college coaching right now. He has really turned things around at Cal. Texas Tech has the unenviable task of trying to stop a very pissed off Cal team. The Bears will be lead by RB JJ Arrington - who has been nothing short of sensational all season - and QB Aaron Rogers. Doc is thinking blow out here. Cal has a much better D than Tech, and that will be the difference.
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Cal 42 - Texas Tech 21
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Emerald Bowl
Navy vs. New Mexico -2.5

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This, boys, is power football at it's finest. Neither of these teams likes to throw the ball much,but their running games are lots of fun to see. Navy is led by FB Kyle Eckel. He is a load to bring down, and often gets the ball as the first read in the Navy option. DonTrell Moore is Eckel's counterpart from New Mexico. The Lobos are just as efficient as Navy, but they are bigger on both sides of the line. Because of this, Doc has to go against the Middies. Hate to do it, but I just can't see them pulling this off.
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N.M. 24 - Navy 17
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Continental Tire Bowl
Boston College vs. North Carolina -2.5

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Boston College is consistantly mediocre and well coached. North Carolina is having a pretty solid year considering how tough the ACC was this season. The win over Miami was huge for this program. The Tarheel coaches will probably be looking at lots of film from the Syracuse game, since they were the only team to really beat this BC defense. It's a very solid unit, and needs to play well to keep RB Chad Scott in check. Look for BC to win in a close one - Doc likes QB Paul Peterson in tight games.
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B.C. 29 - UNC 27
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Sun Bowl
Arizona State vs. Purdue -6.5

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OK, which Purdue team will show up to this bowl game? The team began the season looking like world beaters, and then pulled a Houdini down the stretch. It seems that Big Ten coaches figured out how to stop "basketball on grass". The question remains whether that info has made it to the Pac 10 or not. Doc likes that Kyle Orton and Purdue finished the year strong after four straight defeats. Look for the Boilermakers to put together one more good one and take the win.
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Purdue 31 - Az St. 24
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Peach Bowl
Florida vs. Miami -2.5

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The Gators and the Canes. This one should be good. Look for the Canes to finish strong with their powerful running game and a last hurrah for the up and down career of Brock Berlin. The future is bright for the Gators, but they aren't gonna win this one.
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Canes 34 - Fla. 24
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Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Alabama

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Two strong running teams will be facing off. This marks the Tide's return to post-season play after suffering through probation. Minnesota really looked ugly at the end of the year, dropping four of five down the stretch. Still, they have a great one-two punch at tailback in Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney. Bama features a truly great defense that can play the run and pass very well. Doc is going to go with a Tide team that seems to be on the upswing and looking for a big year next season. The D will be the difference.
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Bama 21 - Minn. 17
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Liberty Bowl
Boise State vs. Louisville -13.5

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This game features two of the really bright young coaches in the game. Louisville is led by Bobby Petrino, while Boise State has Andy Hawkins. Both these guys know a few things about offense. Doc likes Louisville in this one, simply because they have faced better competition and have a more oportunistic defense. These guys are the real deal.
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Cards. 38 - Boise 28
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