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The NFL EDGE: 2004
ISSUE No. 14

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Chicago at Jacksonville -6.5

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The Bears bring brutal beatings down to J-town. The return of Brian Urlacher has the Bears defense very formidable once again. Don't discount the effect of a QB who is not a total liability either - Chad Hutchinson, started in the NFL for a while - spent a season in NFL Europe, and now appears to be a competent QB. Other guys who went that route, Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, Brad Johnson have emerged as decent players. That doesn't really sway the pick here. We've been on the Jag all year, and they came through again last week covering the Steelers, in a tough loss. They are both fighting for Playoff slots, but with these defensive teams, scoring will be down and it will be close.
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Jags 20.6 - Chi. 14
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JAGS 22 - CHI 3 WINNER

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Cincinnati at New England -11.5

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Should be one of the most interesting match ups in the AFC. New England starting to look like they are getting that late season roll on. Along comes the Bengals. Winners of 2 in a row, 4 of the last 5 and having beaten the spread 5 weeks in a row. Sure the X-treme Stats show the Bengals are 3-7 in its last 10 December games. And a paltry 2-4 ATS record on the road, but they already tallied one big road win last week. Statistically it would seem the odds are stacked against that happening twice in a row. The Cocky Bengals though don't seem to care though. They have been on fire down the stretch and could wind up upsetting the Pats. Im not going out on that far with my pick, but I do like the Bengals to exploit N.E.s suspect corners with Carson Palmer throwing to Chad Johnson as this one is not the lock it may seem like.
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New England 33 - Cincy 27
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NE 35 - CINCI 28 WINNER
 



Cleveland at Buffalo -7.5

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Cleveland looks to me like they have moved into my number 1 slot. That's right, my No. 1 bet! I see who Cleveland is playing and immediately take the other team. Especially when it's the red hot Buffalo Bills. Always tough in the Buff, and much more so in the snow! After a big road win they will be stampeding back home with Playoff hopes once again rekindled. Cleveland is in complete disarray, gone is the coach, gone is their heart as they looked to be walking through the game with Pats pounding and punishing. The Browns looked like they thrown the towel in and half the team is thinking about where they will spend Christmas when they should be playing football.
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Buffalo 31 - Cleve. 17
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BUFF 37 - CLE 7 WINNER

Detroit at Green Bay -8.5

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Did anyone else write off Detroit after thanksgiving. Well much like those Turkey sandwiches in early December, they're back. The Pack on the heels of a Philly Thrashing will have to get over that and really fast. From that almost 10 point number the books figure that they will. Careful with Detroit now as we can see the X-treme Stats show they have been a tremendous cover on the road at 4-2 this year, although both those losses were in the last 3 road games. Also they are in Lameau where they have been walloped by double digits the last several trips up there (31-6, 40-14) and in December against a peeved off Packer team. Im goin with a Pack Bounce back, but beware laying big points to the covering cat this one might not be as lopsided.
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Green Bay 31 - Detroit 21
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GREEN BAY 16 - DET 13 WINNER/NO COVER  


Indianapolis at Houston +10.5

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Houston come in Houston, the Texans are requesting landing back on earth. Didn't we tell you last week thanks to X-treme stats that they were 1-8 in December. Lets update that to 1-9 and after this week can we say 1-10. An awful big number for a divisional home dog though. Defense does win games and if we just had to stack one defense against another you might say Houston has a better defense. Then I will say that Payton Manning gives them a slight edge over David Carr. Will Payton break Danny Marinos TD record this week? Could be history in the making here. Wanna be betting against that?
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Indy 38 - Houston 24
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INDY 23 - HOU 14 WINNER/NO COVER  

New Orleans at Dallas -7.5

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Did the doubters dare to doubt Dallas, and on Monday night no less. Not those of us who got the edge, as I tried to warn you about that soft Seattle Defense and Julius Jones. Now if you thought last week was fun for the old Notre Dame running back, just wait til he and that Big Dallas offensive line get a crack at this New Orleans defense. Of course I don't have a line on this one yet, and if that line is up over 10 or so I might re-think this one, but for now "ride dem Cowboys!"
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Dallas 28 - N.O. 20
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N.O. 27 - DALL 13 LOSER  

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N.Y. Giants at Baltimore -9.5

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The Giants team that played Washington looked to me much like the Giants team last year that had pretty much packed it in. Yeah they had and still have a shot at the playoffs but this is now a team that has lost 5 straight and with Eli Manning at the helm have managed one TD drive in three games. Against a Baltimore defesne that was beaten last week at home. I don't see much chance to improve that this week. Especially considering the half hearted effort the Giants seem to be exerting.
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Balt. 27 - NYG 10
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BAL 37 - NYG 14 WINNER  

Oakland at Atlanta -6.5

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Ohhh now, the winter wind may be a Raider, but this Greek is and has been OFF the Raider wagon. I was worried last week, picking them to win (outright), but I wasn't about to lay any points on this team, and was rewarded. I think that and blowing the lead in that game last week will have a hangover effect in this one. For Atlanta, Micheal Vick is coming off a shut out last week, He has got to be chomping at the bit to get back out there. In the past I would be fooled by the Raider mystique and get suckered by all the points. However my "sponsors" at the Raider Recovery Rehab center tell me that's natural and not to give in to my resolve. Staying away from the Raiders, away, away...
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ATL 36 - OAKL. 19
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ATL 35 - OAKL 10 WINNER  

   

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Seattle at Minnesota -6.5

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The Vikings were handled in Chicago last week. Though with Brian Urlacher back on the Bear Defense, they are much more formidable than what Seattle has on that side of the ball. In case you werent paying attention last week when I clued you in on Dallas RB Julius Jones and his big day, 200 yards huh? Heres another game for those who like offense, RB Onterrio Smith should run all over this defense except that the Vikings have a couple of other guys that they might like to get the ball to, like Marcus Robinson or a guy Named Randy Moss. Seattle can score too, though but defensively the Vikes arent nearly as soft as Seattle is. Defense still decides games and despite all the offense, the Vikes have the edge on Defense in this one, and that will be the key.
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Minn 37 - Sea. 27
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SEA 27 - MINN 23 LOSER

Miami at Denver -11.5

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Here is what might appear to be another lopsided easy pick, but might not be in reality. I know all about A.J. Feeley and his five picks. That was pretty bad, if you take away the picks and the points there you can clearly see Miami as a team has not quit. Hard to overcome 5 Interceptions (and two more fumbles to boot) but its also hard to deny 32 points being scored and a defense that was still managing to get some turnovers and fight hard. Denver is still alive for a playoff and need a win badly, but Im still not sold on them. QB Jake Plummer though might not want to be outdone by Mr Feeley and could toss 6 picks of his own this week. The Dolphins will fight but in the end they will falter again. Them Florida Fish don't do too well late in the year and in cold even when they aren't this bad.
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Denver 27 - Miami 20
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DENVER 20 - MIA 17 WINNER  


N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh -4.5

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OK I think I need to say this again, I am not a Pittsburgh Hater. Yet since I said that I still picked against them. Not totally unrewarded though as the Jags covered Sunday night (and oh by the way the Skins covered against them the week before also). So anyone betting with me taking them points was counting up exactly how crazy I sounded. Now Here come the Jets a serious threat in the form of a potential playoff opponent. Pitt has been brutal at home besting New England and basting Philly there. The Jets wont find it any more hospitable. Despite getting Capt. Pennington back in the cockpit and a huge game from that defense which is playing real well, this one will be tough to watch, and tough to bet on. I might be crazy laying points against Pennington this week, but I gotta go with Pitt in their lair.
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Pitts. 31 - NY Jets 23
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PITT 17 - JETS 6 WINNER  

San Francisco at Arizona -6.5

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What is that smell coming from the west out there. Must be this match up of stinkers! San Fran despite the train wreck of this season is still playing hard defensively. Arizona is also still playing hard for Dennis Green. They were pretty solid until they got into a QB quandry. They were playing Michigan Rookie John Navarre last game after Josh McCown and Shaun King were there earlier. They also have a less than 100% Emmett Smith. Im afraid what magic Zona had found earlier may be sputtering. This is a game that San Fran can actually win. Wasn't it just last week I proclaimed S.F. to be no. 1. Well even no. 1 can slip up and win one once in a while I guess. Don't ask me how though!
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San Fran 21 - Arizona 19
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S.F. 31 - AZ 28 WINNER  

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St. Louis at Carolina -4.5

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St. Louis found their way back into the lead in the NFC West, but shouldn't be too comfortable with a 6-6 mark. This week they take their 2-4 ATS mark on the road going over to play in Carolina who themselves are only 2-4 ATS at home (I knows cuz I checked the X-treme stats). The Panthers in showing the heart of a champion despite a dearth of injuries now find themselves the hottest team in the NFC having reeled off 6 in a row ATS. This is a game with huge playoff implications. Throw in the back up QB for St. Louis, Chris Chandler with an injury question to starter Marc Bulger and once again Carolina will show why it was foolish to write off the NFC Champions after a slow start.
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Carolina 29 - St. Louis 24
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CAR 20 - STL 7 WINNER

Tampa Bay at San Diego -4.5

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A tough match up among two of the hottest teams over recent weeks. Clearly San Diego is the hottest team right now, practically sewing up the AFC West last week, could they be ripe for a slight let up. With a rejuvinated Tampa team coming in after shutting out Micheal Vick, could the Bucs be getting some defensive swagger back. Don't look now but the Bucs feel like they might have a shot at the playoffs also in the NFC Playoff picture. Doubtful they could best the bolts at home, but the way this game is setting up, The Bucs are the more desperate animal. I wouldn't want to have to bet against Tampa here. But I think I will anyways.
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S.D. 27 - TAM 21
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SD 31 - TAM 24 WINNER  

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Philadelphia at Washington +10.5

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A prime time match up among NFC East Rivals. Philly just keeps rolling as they fly toward the Playoffs. Joe Gibbs Skins - believe it or not aren't out of the playoff mix either, but despite that have really responded by showing that they haven't quit. The Defense is improving week in and week out and if anyone can challenge the Eagles a little it's this Washington Team - this week in prime time. They still wont win, Philly has too many answers offensively to what they can do, but they can CHALLENGE the Eagles some. Especially in front a of a big rowdy home crowd.
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Phila. 23 - WAS 14
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PHI 17 - WAS 14 WINNER  

Kansas City at Tennessee -1.5

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A Prime time battle of 4-8 teams. Now if you been playing along at home you know I have been on a bit of a streak lately. Im a bit uneasy about this one though. The Chiefs will be without Priest Holmes, but they can still win with Larry Johnson or even Blaylock at RB. The Titans though cant win without McNair. Ahhh but he could be back for this one. That would make that Tenn. Pick look pretty good at home like that. KC really has a weak defense and with McNair the Titans will roll on them. Just like in Green Bay way back in week 5. However hes questionable, and Trent Green is not, so Im a going with the Priestless Chiefs to close out week 14 with one last upset!
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KC 45 - Tenn 27
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KC 49 - TENN 38 WINNER
 

   

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