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The NFL EDGE: 2004
ISSUE No. 11

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Arizona at Carolina -2.5

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The Wiley Cards come calling to Carolina. Uhhh hello the Cards are in playoff contention?? Don't laugh in the wild west only one game separates the Cards from the top of the division. Carolina is a team that has just had too much adversity this year. They shown last week that they havent quit though and will be a tough out at home. Sure I like the Coverin cards, but been burned by these birds before, on the road that is. Carolina is one dimensional offensively, but Jake Delhomme and Mushin Mohammed give them some fight to keep the cats claws clawing. Im always leery though of laying points with a 2-7 team!
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Carolina 21 - Ariz 17
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CAR. 35 - AZ 10 WINNER

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Dallas at Baltimore -5.5

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Baltimore is clearly a pretty good team. That defense is once again playing at a super level, and the offense has steadily improved each week with Jamal Lewis back as their main man. Don't look now but even Kyle Boller is starting to make some plays. If that kid gets goin and starts really throwing the rock... this could be a really dangerous team. Dallas though is going the other way. Offensively they are better than last year, but defensively they are really struggling especially at corner. Sorry Cowboy fans the carnage continues.
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Baltimore 27 - Dallas 10
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BALT 30 - DAL 10 WINNER
 



Denver at New Orleans +3.5

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OK so the Saints beat the Chiefs last week. They have always had talent on offense, and now with Deuce McAllister back from injury they are even more talented. That talent is enigmatic though as they can tease you with flashes of good play then go and turn the ball over 4 times. Denver is in a heated divisional race, and cant afford a let up. They get back rested off a bye, and if they don't turn it over, which sometimes with Jake Plummer playing Quarterback can happen in bunches, should be able to move the ball on this defense. It could be a shootout if N.O. can get it going and that would tend to make Plummer more vulnerable, as he would have to keep passing. But I see Denver getting it going early and keeping it going with Reuben Droughns running ripshod on that Saints Defense
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Denver 31 - New Orleans 20
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DENV. 34 - N.O. 13 WINNER

Detroit at Minnesota -7.5

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Two teams riding three-game losing streaks meet in Minnesota on Sunday when the Vikings play host to the Lions. The Vikings have fallen into a first-place tie in the NFC North division with the Green Bay Packers, and haven't been the same since star WR Randy Moss got injured. Steve Mariucci's troops went to Jacksonville last game and came away with a tough OT loss. Obviously Detroit can play pretty well on the road, as their 3-2 ATS mark indicates. Looking deeper into the Extreme stats we can also see that Detroit are 1-4-0 ATS in their last 5 games, and Minnesota are 5-0-0 ATS in theirs. Also Detroit hasn't beaten Minnesota straight up since 2001, and Minnesota has an 8-2 edge in the last 10 meetings between these two. All those numbers point to another Viking victory while picking Detroit would really be bucking the trends. Im not feeling too daring this week, although I do like Detroits offense to keep it a little too close for comfort.
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Minn. 34 - Detroit 24
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MINN 22 - DET. 19 WINNER/No Cover  


Indianapolis at Chicago +6.5

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This is actually a much tougher game than it looks. The Colts roll into Chicago having put together a little win streak and lighting up Houston last week. Chicago is also on a roll actually climbing back into playoff contention. Da Bears have been doing it with Defense now that some of their key guys are back. All their scoring last week was done by the defense, unreal, but hard to keep winning that way. Defense wins in the NFL, but at some point you gotta do something offensively, especially against Payton Manning. The Bears defense will have to be phenomenal to keep Payton in check. It will be close for a while but Payton will get it done.
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INDY 24 - Chi 17
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INDY 41 - CHI 10 WINNER  

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland +3.5

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Both of these two suffered big let downs last week. Despite the disparity in these teams records, right now they really arent that far apart. The Jets can still run, and with new starting QB Quincy Carter getting more comfortable in the role, can move the ball a little. Cleveland with QB Jeff Garcia can move the ball some too, especially at home, except for last week. Yes the Browns are reeling and the Jets really are the better team. They should go in and win this game on the road. Yet when you're a Jet, you're a Jet from your first cigarette to your last blown game! Im betting Cleveland wont lose two in a row at home, and that the Jets are a little rattled from last weeks home loss.
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Cleve 24 - NYJ 20
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NY JETS 10 - CLE 7 COVER  

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Pittsburgh at Cincinnati +5.5

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Folks Im not a Steeler hater! In fact I really like Pittsburgh! I just been picking the wrong way on Pittsburgh games. I Underestimated them especially Ben Rothlisberger, Definitely guilty! Steelers are the hottest team in the league and playing like it. Cincy though much like last year, after a slow start are playing really good football right now. Flip a coin enough times and it does not come up heads every time... does it?? Is Pittsburgh capable of keeping it going? Well at this point I can only say Pitt, has won me over. But can they avoid this dangerous trap game in the Jungle??
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Pitt 23 - Cincy 20
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PITT. 19 - CINCY 14 WINNER  

San Francisco at Tampa Bay -7.5

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Tampa had started putting together some nice games after they made the switch to Brian Griese. They ran into a speed bump last week in Micheal Vick and the high flying Falcons. Yet it was still not quite the blowout it may have seemed. San Fran, what can say about this team. They lost a winnable game in a match up of 1-7 teams last week, at home no less. How will the go into Tampa and pull off the upset. A huge dose of overconfidence from the bucs?? Unlikely after a loss. Lighting up Tampas defense? Yeah right, I can see that happening. How can San Fran win this game, A miracle that's how.
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Tampa 28 - San Fran 16
************************************
TAMPA 35 - S.F. 3 WINNER  

   

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OK, folks. This is what is known around here as Rivalry Weekend. This is when you can throw out the records because it's personal. These teams just don't like each other. Makes for great football and legendary moments. Let's look at some of the key matchups:
 
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Michigan at Ohio State +5.5

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Ohio State football has been making lots of headlines this year, but for all the wrong reasons. This would be a great chance for the team to put all that behind them and just go out and beat Michigan. The Ohio State defense is very stout and will be able to keep Michigan from running at will. This is important, because the run sets up everything for the Wolverines. Still, nobody has really been able to shut down this offense, which means Ohio State will have to put some points up as well. Just can't see it. If this one is close, it will only be because OSU will be playing over their heads in the biggest game of thier season. Wolverines will win the Big Ten with a frosh QB AND RB. It may be a while till OSU wins one of these again.
***********************************************
MICH. 31 - OSU 17
***********************************************
OSU 37 - MICH 21 LOSER  


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Auburn at Alabama +10.5

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The Iron Bowl. It really doesn't get any better than this one. Can Bama match up against this powerful Auburn team? Oh yeah they can. They have the kind of D that can keep them in any game. That and the home field advantage will make this the toughest game of the year for Coach Tubberville's Tigers. All the pressure is on Auburn here, and there is a lot on the line for them. If they play tight, they will get beat. Doc is going with the Tigers because I love they way they play, but this one could be an upset special.
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Auburn 20 - Bama 13
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AUBURN 21 - BAMA 13 WINNER

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St. Louis at Buffalo +3.5

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A big time trap game here. I know Buffalo looked really bad Sunday night, but the Pats will do that to Most teams in the league. Case in point look at St. Louis 2 weeks ago, plastered by the Pats, and they came back and laid out Seattle. Ahh but that was in the home dome. Buffalo this time of year is much less hospitable! The turf wont be an issue for this Ram team, but the cold and wind will be. Buffalo was playing pretty good in the weeks leading up to the New England game. I know all about the blasting they took Sunday night, and Drew Bledsoe looks like hes lost his confidence. If the rest of the team didn't pack it and unless their confidence isn't totally shot from Sunday night, or unless the coaching staff does some really stupid things (which if I gotta bet any staff to do that it would be Martz). That's a lot of ifs, but I kinda like JP Losman getting in there and giving the team a lift, It's a long shot but I like Buffalo in this one.
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Buffalo 21 - Rams 20
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BUFF 37 - STL 17 WINNER

Tennessee at Jacksonville -2.5

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What has become of the Titans. Remember the Titans? Some of us even picked this team to be a playoff team! Ahhh but in that same ISSUE someone ALSO stated that Jacksonville would be a playoff team. I liked that defense then, and I like that defense now. There are QB questions for both teams. Based on the FACT that backups started for both these two last week, I figure that will also be the case again this Sunday. An even better bet to bet the better 'D'. Which in case you aren't aware of it by now, let me clue you in. Jacksonville has a pretty good defense.
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Jags 17 - Tenn 12
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TENN 18 - JACKS 15 LOSER  


Miami at Seattle -8.5

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Miami starts the first game of the post Dave Wannstedt era, up in Seattle. Looks like I was right about one thing - the Wannstedt watch is over and those of you who had week 10 in my pool congrats! Although he resigned and wasn't outright "fired", did we really not see this coming? Well Dolphin fans, it wont be that easy to fix this team. Wannstedt wasn't the guy out there unable to open a hole. Wannstedt wasn't out there unable to stop a team when the game was on the line. The fact that Wannstedt was a very popular coach with his players will have a hangover effect on a team that already has problems, a half hearted team will make the early season dolphins look pretty good by comparison. Seattle could probably not ask for a better bounce back game after that debacle last week than Miami right now.
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Seattle 36 - Miami 7
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SEA. 24 - MIA 17 WINNER/No Cover  

San Diego at Oakland +3.5

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The Chargers visit the Raiders in a rematch of game that sent these two franchises on divergent courses. The Chargers pummelled the Raiders earlier this year and rolling from the confidence in that game have been propelled to one of the best records in the AFC. The Raiders meanwhile are looking for answers. They rallied last week with an impressive road win in Carolina, and look to be getting over some of the strife built up from those losses. The Raiders can be really good at home, and an even more dangerous divisional home dog where they will look for revenge. It's a game that could be much closer than it looks, in the end though the Chargers are just doing too many good things offensively for the Raiders to be able to contain the leagues highest scoring team.
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S.D. 37 - Oakl. 30
************************************
S.D. 23 - OAK 17 WINNER  

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Atlanta at N.Y. Giants +2.5

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The Falcons soar into the meadowlands where they have won the last three trips to play the Giants there. Even more impressive is the last two victories there were without Micheal Vick. The Giants are reeling right now after starting out strong and going to 5-2 they have dropped the last two games to sub .500 teams, checking the Extreme Statswe see they lost three of the last 4 they played. The Giants have made a change at QB as the Eli Manning era begins this week. So that could wind up sparking the Giants if the kid is half as good as they say he is. Still I cant go out and take a rookie QB albeit a Manning, even at home - especially without Sackmaster Micheal Strahan to pressure Mr Vick.
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ATL 24 - NYG 21
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ATL 14 - NYG 10 WINNER

Washington at Philadelphia -9.5

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Just when it looked like Philly was starting to struggle dropping 3 in a row ATS and the first loss of the season! They were chomping at the bit all week to get back out there, where they only laid the biggest whupping on the Cowboys in Texas stadium ever. Hard to see anyone slowing this Eagle attack. Sure the Redskins got a nice Defense, but how can anyone contain what McNabb and Owens are capable of doing... WHEN THEY want to. That will be the Key. A home game against a divisional rival ought to be enough motivation for the Eggs in this one. If they needed it Patrick Ramsey is starting this game, since Mark Brunell proved he no longer has it. Ramsey has thrown like 6 INTS in limited action. Wonder how many he will throw in a full game when they will have to be coming from behind?
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Philly 34 - Was 14
************************************
PHI. 28 - WAS 6 WINNER  

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Green Bay at Houston +3.5

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Yes folks the Pack is back! Seems those who have cried the end of the run for Green Bay were sadly mistaken. They ride a 4 game win streak into Houston. Despite the shelling the Texans got handed in Indy, those who dismiss Houston have been getting pasted all year. I cant really go against a red hot Packer team right now, even on the road. But Houston is a really attractive home dog here, in their first prime time game. In a potential let down game for Green Bay who battled division rival Minnesota in that gut wrenching game last week, with a fired up team on Prime time for the first time and oh they play in a dome. Can the Texans pull it off?? Im going to say no, but not from lack of effort
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Green Bay 24 - Houston 23
************************************
GB 16 - HOU 13 WINNER!  

New England at Kansas City +2.5

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The Pats visit Kansas City. Throw the records out for this one, as Kansas city is a very tough place to play any day and on Monday night it seems even louder. The Chiefs feed off the leagues loudest crowd and can score in bunches. The Chiefs are without Priest Holmes for this one though. The Pats are favored and it's a dangerous bet going against the Chiefs at home, even more so as a dog. The NFL is about defense, and theres no doubt about which of these two has the best Defense.
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New England 27 - Kansas City 24
************************************
NEW ENGL. 27 - K.C. 19 WINNER!
 

   

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Wisconsin at Iowa -3.5

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Doc is including this one because it could very well determine the Big Ten Championship. Wisconsin got throttled last week by an up-and-coming Michigan State team. Can they get the magic back that got them this far? What happened to that ferocious D? Iowa has put itself in position to win the Big Ten, but who can say how they've done it. It certainly hasn't been with their bread-and-butter ground game. It's been Air Hawkeyes this season. Doc is saying that the Badgers will not go into the tank for a second straight week. They will run the ball and try to keep Iowa's passing attack in front of them all game long. Look for Badger safety Chad Greenway to have a big day.
************************************
Wisc. 27 - Iowa 17
*************************************
IOWA 30 - WISC 7 LOSER

 

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Stanford at Cal -24.5

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This is The Big Game, made most famous by The BAND Play back in the early eighties. All Doc knows is that this guy Tedford can coach the hell out of this game. He's got Cal playing like Rose Bowl champs, and all they need to do is get through Stanford to have a chance of getting there. Stanford has some weapons, especially in 6' 7" WR Evan Moore. The guy is fast and can jump. He can be a one man wrecking crew to opposing defenses. The emotion involved in this rivalry will give the Cardinal a fighting chance, but in the end this one is gonna be all Cal.
************************************
Cal 38 - Stanford 21
*************************************
CAL 41 - Stan. 6 WINNER/No Cover


 


 
 

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